What's important about yesterday's Microsoft event.
I may have overreacted on some fronts with my initial response. Almost 24 hours later, I've had some time to read and think and have modified my thoughts a bit.
Yesterday was truly important to Microsoft and in a good way. Though I will still contend that it is not explicitly anything that they unveiled that makes it important. It is the way that it seems to be making people about Microsoft. It is a culmination of events and a combination. I may not like the Surface Book, but pre-orders for the most expensive ($2700USD) version are already sold out. Microsoft fans are fanatical and many that I saw losing faith in Microsoft now seem to fully entrenched again. That IS important.
I still don't feel that the devices will yield huge results overall. Some have pointed out that this isn't the plan though. The devices JUST need to turn a profit. And I think they will succeed. Heck, selling out of pre-orders for a $2700 laptop pretty much sums it up. There is at least enough demand to deplete limited quantities. And there is, as with Apple devices, loads of margin baked into those costs. The only way Microsoft fails on that front is if they have a Surface RT style write down of massive amounts of stock. But Surface is an established product and Surface Book seems to be successful riding that wave.
I don't however feel this changes anything in the big picture. As I do with new Google and Apple products, I have to measure this device (the Surface Book) against what those entrenched in other camps have and how they will perceive it. After all, the laptop market is well established, and making a successful requires taking sales from your competitors and OEM partners.
Firstly, on the Google front. There is really no crossover at all. There was one enormously expensive Chromebook flop and then an army sub-$200 devices. If you're using ChromeOS, you either have no money or aren't the target market for Windows 10, let alone for a device starting at $1500.
This might cannibalize some sales from people who buy premium Windows laptops. In fact, I guarantee it will.
But, against Apple, I don't see it doing much. Firstly, while Apple fans are willing to pay for Apple products, they largely aren't deluded into thinking that they are cheap. They KNOW that Apple products are expensive. They know a lot of that is margin. They are mostly buying these products because they love the company or believe in their craftsmanship. The Surface Book won't deserve much of a second look simply because it is even more expensive.
Also, working against the price is that while Surface may be an established brand, the Surface Book is NOT an established product. Many will stick with the devil they know, especially when the devil they don't costs them more. And that is smart. Not because I don't believe in the product, but because even I would tend to choose the more established product when you're looking at premium products.
Surface Book will need at least a generate or two more riding on the shoulders of MS fans before it will have a chance to turn heads away from their competitors in volume.
But then, I think the important thing is the point I started on. Thanks to this device not being leaked (at least not entirely) it shocked people. It excited people. It even caused people to call it innovative; on the whole I disagree, there are smaller innovative touches I'll concede, but the final product doesn't feel like an innovation. At a point in time when Apple is seen by many as just iterating and stabbing in the dark, this is HUGELY important.
It also comes on the heels of Windows 10 getting rapid enough adoption to make headlines and people perceiving Apple and Google as trying to copy the Surface Pro. That last line has caused some transference. If this product had been released 2 months I think the reaction would be entirely different. With Apple copying SP3, people are finally willing to accept that Microsoft is innovating. With Google copying SP3 people are finally willing to think Microsoft could be cool.
If you doubt... go find any review of the iPad Pro. Look for the praise splashed on Microsoft. Then go find an older article from the same author on the Surface lineup. The contrast is interesting. Many conceding not only the success, but also the quality and value of the Surface Pro were lukewarm at best earlier on it.
Consequently, this may be the biggest reason why the iPad Pro and the Android convertible should be considered failures. I think both may only succeed in making the product they are believed to be imitating more popular. I've already ranted long enough about why I think neither has a real market big enough sustain those products.
Yesterday was truly important to Microsoft and in a good way. Though I will still contend that it is not explicitly anything that they unveiled that makes it important. It is the way that it seems to be making people about Microsoft. It is a culmination of events and a combination. I may not like the Surface Book, but pre-orders for the most expensive ($2700USD) version are already sold out. Microsoft fans are fanatical and many that I saw losing faith in Microsoft now seem to fully entrenched again. That IS important.
I still don't feel that the devices will yield huge results overall. Some have pointed out that this isn't the plan though. The devices JUST need to turn a profit. And I think they will succeed. Heck, selling out of pre-orders for a $2700 laptop pretty much sums it up. There is at least enough demand to deplete limited quantities. And there is, as with Apple devices, loads of margin baked into those costs. The only way Microsoft fails on that front is if they have a Surface RT style write down of massive amounts of stock. But Surface is an established product and Surface Book seems to be successful riding that wave.
I don't however feel this changes anything in the big picture. As I do with new Google and Apple products, I have to measure this device (the Surface Book) against what those entrenched in other camps have and how they will perceive it. After all, the laptop market is well established, and making a successful requires taking sales from your competitors and OEM partners.
Firstly, on the Google front. There is really no crossover at all. There was one enormously expensive Chromebook flop and then an army sub-$200 devices. If you're using ChromeOS, you either have no money or aren't the target market for Windows 10, let alone for a device starting at $1500.
This might cannibalize some sales from people who buy premium Windows laptops. In fact, I guarantee it will.
But, against Apple, I don't see it doing much. Firstly, while Apple fans are willing to pay for Apple products, they largely aren't deluded into thinking that they are cheap. They KNOW that Apple products are expensive. They know a lot of that is margin. They are mostly buying these products because they love the company or believe in their craftsmanship. The Surface Book won't deserve much of a second look simply because it is even more expensive.
Also, working against the price is that while Surface may be an established brand, the Surface Book is NOT an established product. Many will stick with the devil they know, especially when the devil they don't costs them more. And that is smart. Not because I don't believe in the product, but because even I would tend to choose the more established product when you're looking at premium products.
Surface Book will need at least a generate or two more riding on the shoulders of MS fans before it will have a chance to turn heads away from their competitors in volume.
But then, I think the important thing is the point I started on. Thanks to this device not being leaked (at least not entirely) it shocked people. It excited people. It even caused people to call it innovative; on the whole I disagree, there are smaller innovative touches I'll concede, but the final product doesn't feel like an innovation. At a point in time when Apple is seen by many as just iterating and stabbing in the dark, this is HUGELY important.
It also comes on the heels of Windows 10 getting rapid enough adoption to make headlines and people perceiving Apple and Google as trying to copy the Surface Pro. That last line has caused some transference. If this product had been released 2 months I think the reaction would be entirely different. With Apple copying SP3, people are finally willing to accept that Microsoft is innovating. With Google copying SP3 people are finally willing to think Microsoft could be cool.
If you doubt... go find any review of the iPad Pro. Look for the praise splashed on Microsoft. Then go find an older article from the same author on the Surface lineup. The contrast is interesting. Many conceding not only the success, but also the quality and value of the Surface Pro were lukewarm at best earlier on it.
Consequently, this may be the biggest reason why the iPad Pro and the Android convertible should be considered failures. I think both may only succeed in making the product they are believed to be imitating more popular. I've already ranted long enough about why I think neither has a real market big enough sustain those products.
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