Androids 1.4B active users and what it means for Windows.
Was reading this and thinking about whether this really matters.
This is, of course, a very large number. And it is also very close to Microsoft's 1.5B users number as well. But, what it means in terms of general size and surpassing Microsoft's personal computing user base depends on context, but overall, in that respect (as a comparison between the two) it isn't all that important.
Firstly, these numbers can be misleading. Those numbers are NOT exclusive. Many of Microsoft's 1.5B users will be using Android phone (it is the #1 smartphone after all) and many of Androids 1.4B active users will be using Windows PCs (it is the #1 PC/Laptop OS after all).
Secondly, the number is just further proof of something we already knew a few years ago. PCs and Laptops are not longer the primary personal computing platform. So, it was just a matter of time before the leading smartphone user base overtook (in terms of sheer numbers) the leading PC user base. As far as I know, smartphones already exceed PCs in terms of both usage and sales. Which ultimately means this number is pointless as a comparison point (especially since they haven't actually surpassed the 1.5B number yet, but even that shouldn't be newsworthy).
Should Microsoft be afraid? Not any more than they already are. And they have reacted accordingly. They are shifting their business model away from operating system revenue and no longer betting the farm on Windows. They get a steady flow of cash now from Azure (which incidentally hosts many iOS and Android apps, and even some Apple services). Office has been released on iOS and Android and has a paid tier in the form of Office 365 that is financially quite successful for them. But, those moves are driven by a general contraction of the PC market. Android is only indirectly and even then only incidentally responsible for that (it was actually the iPhone that made the smartphone revolution after all).
So, no, based on these numbers, Microsoft shouldn't be any more afraid. We're past the point of smartphone sales cannibalizing PC sales. And PC's aren't going anywhere, and amusingly, it is Android and iOS which are the nail in that particular coffin.
The justification is this; what makes Android and iOS popular aren't the OSs themselves. It is the apps. How many iOS apps were developed on an iOS device? Zero. How many Android apps were developed on an Android device? Zero. How do I know? Neither system has an IDE which can develop natively for their own platform (let alone a competing mobile platform). Neither allows compiling an app natively on the OS or deploying and debugging natively. In other words... more Android devices indirectly means an ever increasing independence on a mature PC operating system, so Macs or Windows machines.
I've seen people argue that they've opened various editors and modified files on these devices, or used an RDP session. But modifying files isn't compiling, and RDP'ing just means your a fool and an idiot. It is still a full blown PC doing the compiling and the work, and you're torturing yourself by doing that dev on a smartphone rather than the PC actually handling the workload.
The closest you'll get with the state of iOS and Android today would be if Apple and/or Google hosted an online IDE with support for remote deployment and debugging. Now, technically, it would likely still be a server farm of "real" PCs in the cloud managing all of this, but it would effectively mean that developers wouldn't need to ever consider buying one if that was the bit holding them back, so I would call that adequate. Frankly, however, I don't think either company even cares today and certainly neither currently has such a solution.
Aside from the non-existent comparison value, the number itself is quite good for Google. I don't want to detract from that. My beef is with the comparison to Windows. Any such debate has is baseless.
This is, of course, a very large number. And it is also very close to Microsoft's 1.5B users number as well. But, what it means in terms of general size and surpassing Microsoft's personal computing user base depends on context, but overall, in that respect (as a comparison between the two) it isn't all that important.
Firstly, these numbers can be misleading. Those numbers are NOT exclusive. Many of Microsoft's 1.5B users will be using Android phone (it is the #1 smartphone after all) and many of Androids 1.4B active users will be using Windows PCs (it is the #1 PC/Laptop OS after all).
Secondly, the number is just further proof of something we already knew a few years ago. PCs and Laptops are not longer the primary personal computing platform. So, it was just a matter of time before the leading smartphone user base overtook (in terms of sheer numbers) the leading PC user base. As far as I know, smartphones already exceed PCs in terms of both usage and sales. Which ultimately means this number is pointless as a comparison point (especially since they haven't actually surpassed the 1.5B number yet, but even that shouldn't be newsworthy).
Should Microsoft be afraid? Not any more than they already are. And they have reacted accordingly. They are shifting their business model away from operating system revenue and no longer betting the farm on Windows. They get a steady flow of cash now from Azure (which incidentally hosts many iOS and Android apps, and even some Apple services). Office has been released on iOS and Android and has a paid tier in the form of Office 365 that is financially quite successful for them. But, those moves are driven by a general contraction of the PC market. Android is only indirectly and even then only incidentally responsible for that (it was actually the iPhone that made the smartphone revolution after all).
So, no, based on these numbers, Microsoft shouldn't be any more afraid. We're past the point of smartphone sales cannibalizing PC sales. And PC's aren't going anywhere, and amusingly, it is Android and iOS which are the nail in that particular coffin.
The justification is this; what makes Android and iOS popular aren't the OSs themselves. It is the apps. How many iOS apps were developed on an iOS device? Zero. How many Android apps were developed on an Android device? Zero. How do I know? Neither system has an IDE which can develop natively for their own platform (let alone a competing mobile platform). Neither allows compiling an app natively on the OS or deploying and debugging natively. In other words... more Android devices indirectly means an ever increasing independence on a mature PC operating system, so Macs or Windows machines.
I've seen people argue that they've opened various editors and modified files on these devices, or used an RDP session. But modifying files isn't compiling, and RDP'ing just means your a fool and an idiot. It is still a full blown PC doing the compiling and the work, and you're torturing yourself by doing that dev on a smartphone rather than the PC actually handling the workload.
The closest you'll get with the state of iOS and Android today would be if Apple and/or Google hosted an online IDE with support for remote deployment and debugging. Now, technically, it would likely still be a server farm of "real" PCs in the cloud managing all of this, but it would effectively mean that developers wouldn't need to ever consider buying one if that was the bit holding them back, so I would call that adequate. Frankly, however, I don't think either company even cares today and certainly neither currently has such a solution.
Aside from the non-existent comparison value, the number itself is quite good for Google. I don't want to detract from that. My beef is with the comparison to Windows. Any such debate has is baseless.
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