Why Windows 10 is the Future of Windows Phone
Two things to start, firstly, this is just a long term projection of mine and secondly, when I say Windows 10, I mean exactly that, not Windows 10 for Phone and Small tablet.
Yes, Microsoft is making a variant of Windows 10 aimed specifically at the phone market already. And yes, that version shares a lot of code in common with its desktop counterpart. But, I think Microsoft has made some bad moves that will, in the long run, lead to the death of that specific variant, much like Windows RT died before it.
I'm going to start by saying that I still believe that there was a chance for Windows Phone. A number of things have lead to its current situation where it is in a slow downward spiral. The biggest things , I think, would be advertising, carrier exclusives and a lack of flagship phones.
Quickly covering those, as an underdog, both the Platform and the devices needed a lot more advertising. I saw almost none here in Canada. Maybe one commercial, a few times, several years ago. Not enough. Especially not with carriers largely pushing people towards anything else.
Carrier exclusives also meant that huge swathes of customers were often more easily swayed to Android or iOS. If I can't get the phone I want, but I'm stuck with my carrier, I'm going to be a lot easier to convince to go with something else.
And lastly, the multi-year gap between flagship phone releases meant zero excitement around the platform in a very long time.
The upcoming code named Cityman and Talkman phones don't look like bad devices, but they are too little too late. Excitement around the platform is pretty much dead and the restrictions on Windows 10 Mobile make it pretty much identical to WinRT just on a phone (no Win32, apps, etc...). I think many of the platforms enthusiasts have moved on and the platform has lost traction. Continuum would have been fine as a stopgap solution if the platform hadn't lost that momentum. And projects Islandwood and Astoria just help give developers a reason not to target Windows on Phones.
So, there are two ways to try and jump start things. A completely new OS or replace the current one with proper Windows 10.
I think the odds of them trying another phone OS from scratch are effectively 0. Doesn't fit with their "One Windows" strategy and it is a huge gamble that would split their dev output. They'd probably exit the phone space before doing that.
But the other option is much more viable. Intel is starting to get their chips to a point where they could be serious in the phone segment of the market. If Microsoft moved the good bits of the Phone version of the OS that are still missing into big Windows, and dropped x86 chips in there, then I think there would be a reason for people to stand up and take notice again.
We aren't quite there yet though. And that is true on a number of fronts. But specific to phones, low end phone specs aren't enough to handle Windows 10. They need flagships to drive up excitement and budget phones to deal with reality. And the experience has to be comparable at the least. But, in a few more years, if Intel or AMD make a good line of mobile SoCs then I can definitely see this happening.
On that topic, I'd also like to see the Xbox functionality rolled into Windows as well, with the console just retaining effectively a different skin or theme to differentiate it and similarly allowing Win32 to apps to run on the console, and Xbox games to run on a PC. The console itself would still serve as a reference spec for games developers.
Right now the "One Windows" vision is a little muddied. There is a common core, and there are universal apps. But there are also wholly unique experiences to each form factor. Even more infuriating is that there is no viable reason to create these barriers. There is nothing stopping me (on a purely technical level) from building the same sorts of apps on the UWP platform as already exist on Win32 (except on phone where they aren't using x86 processors... yet).
Anyway, my prediction is that the first Surface Phone (and no I don't think the October hardware event will include any such branding on phone) will be at least a year out, if not more, and it will contain an x86 processor and run "full" Windows and it will signal the eventual death of Windows 10 Mobile.
But this is probably a pretty simple prediction to make at this point in time. It not only aligns perfectly with Microsoft's current long term vision for Windows. It also makes a ton of sense. The less profitable their phones are, the less they can afford to sustain OS differences. By making phones run the exact same OS as laptops, they get their phone specific dev and support efforts as close to zero as possible.
Yes, Microsoft is making a variant of Windows 10 aimed specifically at the phone market already. And yes, that version shares a lot of code in common with its desktop counterpart. But, I think Microsoft has made some bad moves that will, in the long run, lead to the death of that specific variant, much like Windows RT died before it.
I'm going to start by saying that I still believe that there was a chance for Windows Phone. A number of things have lead to its current situation where it is in a slow downward spiral. The biggest things , I think, would be advertising, carrier exclusives and a lack of flagship phones.
Quickly covering those, as an underdog, both the Platform and the devices needed a lot more advertising. I saw almost none here in Canada. Maybe one commercial, a few times, several years ago. Not enough. Especially not with carriers largely pushing people towards anything else.
Carrier exclusives also meant that huge swathes of customers were often more easily swayed to Android or iOS. If I can't get the phone I want, but I'm stuck with my carrier, I'm going to be a lot easier to convince to go with something else.
And lastly, the multi-year gap between flagship phone releases meant zero excitement around the platform in a very long time.
The upcoming code named Cityman and Talkman phones don't look like bad devices, but they are too little too late. Excitement around the platform is pretty much dead and the restrictions on Windows 10 Mobile make it pretty much identical to WinRT just on a phone (no Win32, apps, etc...). I think many of the platforms enthusiasts have moved on and the platform has lost traction. Continuum would have been fine as a stopgap solution if the platform hadn't lost that momentum. And projects Islandwood and Astoria just help give developers a reason not to target Windows on Phones.
So, there are two ways to try and jump start things. A completely new OS or replace the current one with proper Windows 10.
I think the odds of them trying another phone OS from scratch are effectively 0. Doesn't fit with their "One Windows" strategy and it is a huge gamble that would split their dev output. They'd probably exit the phone space before doing that.
But the other option is much more viable. Intel is starting to get their chips to a point where they could be serious in the phone segment of the market. If Microsoft moved the good bits of the Phone version of the OS that are still missing into big Windows, and dropped x86 chips in there, then I think there would be a reason for people to stand up and take notice again.
We aren't quite there yet though. And that is true on a number of fronts. But specific to phones, low end phone specs aren't enough to handle Windows 10. They need flagships to drive up excitement and budget phones to deal with reality. And the experience has to be comparable at the least. But, in a few more years, if Intel or AMD make a good line of mobile SoCs then I can definitely see this happening.
On that topic, I'd also like to see the Xbox functionality rolled into Windows as well, with the console just retaining effectively a different skin or theme to differentiate it and similarly allowing Win32 to apps to run on the console, and Xbox games to run on a PC. The console itself would still serve as a reference spec for games developers.
Right now the "One Windows" vision is a little muddied. There is a common core, and there are universal apps. But there are also wholly unique experiences to each form factor. Even more infuriating is that there is no viable reason to create these barriers. There is nothing stopping me (on a purely technical level) from building the same sorts of apps on the UWP platform as already exist on Win32 (except on phone where they aren't using x86 processors... yet).
Anyway, my prediction is that the first Surface Phone (and no I don't think the October hardware event will include any such branding on phone) will be at least a year out, if not more, and it will contain an x86 processor and run "full" Windows and it will signal the eventual death of Windows 10 Mobile.
But this is probably a pretty simple prediction to make at this point in time. It not only aligns perfectly with Microsoft's current long term vision for Windows. It also makes a ton of sense. The less profitable their phones are, the less they can afford to sustain OS differences. By making phones run the exact same OS as laptops, they get their phone specific dev and support efforts as close to zero as possible.
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