75 Million Windows 10 PCs in 1 Month
That is great news for MS fans and MS.
Anyone who would argue otherwise is insane or missing the point.
Apparently, many of the nay-sayers and arguing that it doesn't count because they are upgrades or that they lost money because those are mainly upgrades.
The reality is that the first argument misses the point and the second argument is largely incorrect.
Microsoft made the upgrade free SPECIFICALLY to accelerate early adoption. SPECIFICALLY. So, if the majority of that 75m number is upgrades, it represents a strategic success. It did EXACTLY what it was meant to do. And they wanted that for a few reasons, the biggest being to attempt to draw developers to work on Windows Store apps.
THIS is why Windows 8 failed. You can scream "Start Menu" at the top of your lungs until you have no voice left. But if the apps you had wanted were in Windows 8 in the new UX, and if it had been popular enough to get the best apps first, etc... people WOULD have come to grips with the UX change. It wasn't worse. It was just different. The failure of Windows 8 was that it never gave users a reason to want to learn or adopt it. And that is largely because it failed to attract developers. Undoubtedly, slow adoption of the OS was a major factor there as well, and specifically, low adoption early on.
With Windows 10, developers who got in early and produced good apps are reaping benefits from a lack of competition. Success stories for the OS and for developers will draw in others. And, one of the biggest draws for any dev shop is the size of the potential audience. I also agree that UWP apps are a draw.
So, don't bash the fact that the success of Windows 10 is largely due to upgrades. It has paid off in spades and Windows 10 has had the most successful first month of any Windows OS. 75m in one month even beats Windows 7. The positive reviews should help stem the tide of users leaving for other systems which should in turn result in a steady stream of new activations over time as well. Whether it succeeds in luring developers back in is another story that only time will give us an answer on.
With regards to lost sales. That is just plain idiotic. Firstly, the average consumer (which is the bulk of Windows license holders) never actually pays for an OS upgrade. And secondly, the average consumer doesn't buy a new computer to get a new OS. The above 2 statements DO apply to some number of people. But, that number is frankly going to be such a small percentage of potential sales that its meaningless.
Would Microsoft have loved it if those were 75m people buying retail disks for upgrades? Absolutely! But THAT is fantasy. Microsoft will continue to make the bulk of its direct OS revenue the EXACT same way it did before. OEM licensing. These free upgrades only cannibalize the small fraction of those users that would have bought a new Windows 10 PC but won't now (for whatever reason) as a result of the free upgrade.
I would actually argue that, if the internet's broad dislike of Windows 8 translates into a fair picture of how the average user felt about the OS and the internet's broad optimism and appreciation of Windows 10 also presents a realistic view of how the average user feels, then that the free upgrade may actually translate to INCREASED sales in the long run.
Getting a free upgrade means a lot of people who may have switched to a Mac before paying for another Windows PC might now actually try Windows 10 first and find they like it, and if their opinion of the OS is restored, it may lead them to stay with Windows and advise friends who hated Windows 8 to try the free upgrade or buy a new PC. We'll never get solid numbers there. But the situation seems highly plausible.
Essentially, getting to 75m users in 1 month is a huge success for the platform. It gives them the best chance they've had to attract devs back to their platform that they've lost since iOS and Android hit the streets in force. The free upgrade was intended to do just that, so it isn't a flop. And while, undoubtedly, they may have lost some sales as a result of giving it away, it would be just a splash in the pan and doesn't truly affect their primary source of OS revenue.
Anyone who would argue otherwise is insane or missing the point.
Apparently, many of the nay-sayers and arguing that it doesn't count because they are upgrades or that they lost money because those are mainly upgrades.
The reality is that the first argument misses the point and the second argument is largely incorrect.
Microsoft made the upgrade free SPECIFICALLY to accelerate early adoption. SPECIFICALLY. So, if the majority of that 75m number is upgrades, it represents a strategic success. It did EXACTLY what it was meant to do. And they wanted that for a few reasons, the biggest being to attempt to draw developers to work on Windows Store apps.
THIS is why Windows 8 failed. You can scream "Start Menu" at the top of your lungs until you have no voice left. But if the apps you had wanted were in Windows 8 in the new UX, and if it had been popular enough to get the best apps first, etc... people WOULD have come to grips with the UX change. It wasn't worse. It was just different. The failure of Windows 8 was that it never gave users a reason to want to learn or adopt it. And that is largely because it failed to attract developers. Undoubtedly, slow adoption of the OS was a major factor there as well, and specifically, low adoption early on.
With Windows 10, developers who got in early and produced good apps are reaping benefits from a lack of competition. Success stories for the OS and for developers will draw in others. And, one of the biggest draws for any dev shop is the size of the potential audience. I also agree that UWP apps are a draw.
So, don't bash the fact that the success of Windows 10 is largely due to upgrades. It has paid off in spades and Windows 10 has had the most successful first month of any Windows OS. 75m in one month even beats Windows 7. The positive reviews should help stem the tide of users leaving for other systems which should in turn result in a steady stream of new activations over time as well. Whether it succeeds in luring developers back in is another story that only time will give us an answer on.
With regards to lost sales. That is just plain idiotic. Firstly, the average consumer (which is the bulk of Windows license holders) never actually pays for an OS upgrade. And secondly, the average consumer doesn't buy a new computer to get a new OS. The above 2 statements DO apply to some number of people. But, that number is frankly going to be such a small percentage of potential sales that its meaningless.
Would Microsoft have loved it if those were 75m people buying retail disks for upgrades? Absolutely! But THAT is fantasy. Microsoft will continue to make the bulk of its direct OS revenue the EXACT same way it did before. OEM licensing. These free upgrades only cannibalize the small fraction of those users that would have bought a new Windows 10 PC but won't now (for whatever reason) as a result of the free upgrade.
I would actually argue that, if the internet's broad dislike of Windows 8 translates into a fair picture of how the average user felt about the OS and the internet's broad optimism and appreciation of Windows 10 also presents a realistic view of how the average user feels, then that the free upgrade may actually translate to INCREASED sales in the long run.
Getting a free upgrade means a lot of people who may have switched to a Mac before paying for another Windows PC might now actually try Windows 10 first and find they like it, and if their opinion of the OS is restored, it may lead them to stay with Windows and advise friends who hated Windows 8 to try the free upgrade or buy a new PC. We'll never get solid numbers there. But the situation seems highly plausible.
Essentially, getting to 75m users in 1 month is a huge success for the platform. It gives them the best chance they've had to attract devs back to their platform that they've lost since iOS and Android hit the streets in force. The free upgrade was intended to do just that, so it isn't a flop. And while, undoubtedly, they may have lost some sales as a result of giving it away, it would be just a splash in the pan and doesn't truly affect their primary source of OS revenue.
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