Surface Phone imminent?
I don't think so. I agree with those who believe that we will see such a device, just not in the near future. Satya's most recent talks about phones mentioned the "Surface" brand far more often than "Lumia" which definitely makes you think that the future of the Lumia brand is not too bright. So, why would the next two rumored devices not bear the Surface branding? The simple answer is that these devices have been in the works since before this change. As a result, the specs have been chosen, cases have been designed, marketing material may have been produced, packaging, etc... But perhaps the best reason is one which includes all of those; it wasn't built with the Surface DNA and the new objectives in mind. The devices they were working on were built to be Lumia phones.
I don't think the (flagship) Lumia and Surface brands differ on many fronts, but I certainly think that there ARE differences and I think that those differences are important. And I think you want as many of those differences eradicated before you start associating a new product line with one still in its infancy and not a runaway success. Surface is doing well, but the brand can't sustain any deadweight right now. It isn't doing THAT well. Some key differences between Lumia devices and Surface devices are:
- Lumia devices are flashy and standout because of their vibrant designs. Surface devices are professional devices which offer potentially vibrant accessories and they stand out for looking like high quality devices than because of their flamboyant colors.
- Lumia flagships focus on high quality, high performance parts and features but deviate really from a standard phone otherwise. Surface devices make calculated tradeoffs (on entry models) and generally offer some feature or features that are more against the grain (touch cover, kickstand, 4:3 aspect ratio screen, etc...).
- Lumia devices are priced competitively and intended as a mainstream consumer product. Surface devices are priced more like Apple products with higher margins and aren't as focused on size of user base.
If you read the spec sheet of the rumored devices, they will immediately sound like a Lumia flagship from the Nokia era. Components are top of the line (octacore processor, 3GB RAM, 32GB storage, 20MP camera, hi-res, high pixel density screen). Basically, nothing you would call a tradeoff or a compromise or a gamble. Nothing special is really being said for the body of the phone either. The only thing it has going that makes it unique will be the accessory to enable Continuum.
I expect that if they switch to the Surface branding, the first such phone probably won't be out until at least the middle of next year. I also expect that despite being a "premium device", to keep it in the ballpark of competing phones while maintaining margin, there will multiple variations with the competitively priced one making performance compromises (like the i3, 4GB models of the SP3). The look of the standard device will probably be a single color like Surface tablets. Though perhaps the shell will be interchangeable to add color and functionality as some Lumia's were capable of. Ideally however, color and mild personalization will, as with the Surface lineup come in the form of other accessories. Though, frankly, with a phone I'm not sure what new and innovative thing they can do there that would actually be an attractive sell. If they go multi-colored however, expect the colors to be less vibrant and more "professional", perhaps matte versions in the same colors available for Surface covers.
If I were to guess based on current state of affairs and a lack of knowledge of what defining feature(s) might make it into the mix, it would look like this:
- One size, probably between 5.2 and 5.7". Screens are still one of the most costly parts of a phone. Diverging here just makes production more expensive and puts them more in the position of a handset competitor than the same line of thinking that they used with Surface tablets. Competing with multiple screen sizes shows an impetus to try and attract larger swathes of customers which runs counter to one of the reasons presented for cutting back the portfolio in the first place. My guess would be 5.2". It is the screen size compromise between those who like smaller 4.7" screens and those who like phablets in the 5.7" size. And 5.2 seems to be the sweet spot at the moment anyway. While I expect at least 2, more likely 3 variants, I suspect they will all have the exact same screen.
- Camera will be 20MP rear facing and *something* front facing that supports Windows Hello! Same on all variants. Windows Hello! support is definitely a potential differentiator. And I don't think they want to make a foray back into 41MP sensors yet. So iterative improvements on their 20MP sensors will probably be fine. I don't think many (if any) competitors are even up that high yet anyway.
- RAM will probably be the same at 3GB. Unless bumping it up for 4GB makes a noticeable difference on their mobile platform I'd see no value in that.
- Processor, and internal storage I expect to vary by device. Similar to the rumored Lumia models for instance, something reasonably spec'd like the hexacore in the 950 for the lower end model(s) and then something equivalent to the Octacore in the 950XL at the upper end, with 32GB in the base model and 64GB storage for the top model.
- Dual SIM and international support across the board. I expect that the manner in which Microsoft will target the business segment isn't with specific hardware, but rather with software and services and then simply making sure that their hardware in general meets the needs of businesses. These are actually features that many high end phones leave out to boost their margins and because a second SIM slot sucks up additional space for hardware, batteries, etc... but they can be pretty valuable to traveling professionals. Supporting a wider array of cell frequencies is almost mandatory for such people because without it, it either means no phone at all or the need to buy or bring a second phone. Dual SIM is arguably less important. Most business travelers will simply expense their phone costs anyway. But that doesn't mean that the ability to keep costs down by making it easier for an employee to theoretically pick up a cheap SIM and cheap local plan won't impact decision making processes. Not all selling features of a product actually get used.
- Cost would probably have the cheapest configuration a decent margin under the iPhone 6 with the most expensive model(s) probably on par with, or even more expensive than the most expensive iPhone 6 Plus configuration. Remember, Microsoft has given up on being a true handset vendor, so that sort of pricing on high end phones doesn't really hurt their strategy at all.
These predictions likely won't hold up long. We haven't even seen the 950 and 950XL (or whatever they will be officially named yet) but I imagine some of these will still hold true assuming my timeline is good. 4GB RAM and 128GB storage for instance may become more mainstream and work their way into the specs if this drags on longer. And may still happen even if it holds.
The important thing though is this... if they are going to change the branding so soon after releasing new Lumia flagships, then they will need to be markedly different as well.
Also, I could be wrong, and they could choose the brand the upcoming phones under the Surface name.
I don't think the (flagship) Lumia and Surface brands differ on many fronts, but I certainly think that there ARE differences and I think that those differences are important. And I think you want as many of those differences eradicated before you start associating a new product line with one still in its infancy and not a runaway success. Surface is doing well, but the brand can't sustain any deadweight right now. It isn't doing THAT well. Some key differences between Lumia devices and Surface devices are:
- Lumia devices are flashy and standout because of their vibrant designs. Surface devices are professional devices which offer potentially vibrant accessories and they stand out for looking like high quality devices than because of their flamboyant colors.
- Lumia flagships focus on high quality, high performance parts and features but deviate really from a standard phone otherwise. Surface devices make calculated tradeoffs (on entry models) and generally offer some feature or features that are more against the grain (touch cover, kickstand, 4:3 aspect ratio screen, etc...).
- Lumia devices are priced competitively and intended as a mainstream consumer product. Surface devices are priced more like Apple products with higher margins and aren't as focused on size of user base.
If you read the spec sheet of the rumored devices, they will immediately sound like a Lumia flagship from the Nokia era. Components are top of the line (octacore processor, 3GB RAM, 32GB storage, 20MP camera, hi-res, high pixel density screen). Basically, nothing you would call a tradeoff or a compromise or a gamble. Nothing special is really being said for the body of the phone either. The only thing it has going that makes it unique will be the accessory to enable Continuum.
I expect that if they switch to the Surface branding, the first such phone probably won't be out until at least the middle of next year. I also expect that despite being a "premium device", to keep it in the ballpark of competing phones while maintaining margin, there will multiple variations with the competitively priced one making performance compromises (like the i3, 4GB models of the SP3). The look of the standard device will probably be a single color like Surface tablets. Though perhaps the shell will be interchangeable to add color and functionality as some Lumia's were capable of. Ideally however, color and mild personalization will, as with the Surface lineup come in the form of other accessories. Though, frankly, with a phone I'm not sure what new and innovative thing they can do there that would actually be an attractive sell. If they go multi-colored however, expect the colors to be less vibrant and more "professional", perhaps matte versions in the same colors available for Surface covers.
If I were to guess based on current state of affairs and a lack of knowledge of what defining feature(s) might make it into the mix, it would look like this:
- One size, probably between 5.2 and 5.7". Screens are still one of the most costly parts of a phone. Diverging here just makes production more expensive and puts them more in the position of a handset competitor than the same line of thinking that they used with Surface tablets. Competing with multiple screen sizes shows an impetus to try and attract larger swathes of customers which runs counter to one of the reasons presented for cutting back the portfolio in the first place. My guess would be 5.2". It is the screen size compromise between those who like smaller 4.7" screens and those who like phablets in the 5.7" size. And 5.2 seems to be the sweet spot at the moment anyway. While I expect at least 2, more likely 3 variants, I suspect they will all have the exact same screen.
- Camera will be 20MP rear facing and *something* front facing that supports Windows Hello! Same on all variants. Windows Hello! support is definitely a potential differentiator. And I don't think they want to make a foray back into 41MP sensors yet. So iterative improvements on their 20MP sensors will probably be fine. I don't think many (if any) competitors are even up that high yet anyway.
- RAM will probably be the same at 3GB. Unless bumping it up for 4GB makes a noticeable difference on their mobile platform I'd see no value in that.
- Processor, and internal storage I expect to vary by device. Similar to the rumored Lumia models for instance, something reasonably spec'd like the hexacore in the 950 for the lower end model(s) and then something equivalent to the Octacore in the 950XL at the upper end, with 32GB in the base model and 64GB storage for the top model.
- Dual SIM and international support across the board. I expect that the manner in which Microsoft will target the business segment isn't with specific hardware, but rather with software and services and then simply making sure that their hardware in general meets the needs of businesses. These are actually features that many high end phones leave out to boost their margins and because a second SIM slot sucks up additional space for hardware, batteries, etc... but they can be pretty valuable to traveling professionals. Supporting a wider array of cell frequencies is almost mandatory for such people because without it, it either means no phone at all or the need to buy or bring a second phone. Dual SIM is arguably less important. Most business travelers will simply expense their phone costs anyway. But that doesn't mean that the ability to keep costs down by making it easier for an employee to theoretically pick up a cheap SIM and cheap local plan won't impact decision making processes. Not all selling features of a product actually get used.
- Cost would probably have the cheapest configuration a decent margin under the iPhone 6 with the most expensive model(s) probably on par with, or even more expensive than the most expensive iPhone 6 Plus configuration. Remember, Microsoft has given up on being a true handset vendor, so that sort of pricing on high end phones doesn't really hurt their strategy at all.
These predictions likely won't hold up long. We haven't even seen the 950 and 950XL (or whatever they will be officially named yet) but I imagine some of these will still hold true assuming my timeline is good. 4GB RAM and 128GB storage for instance may become more mainstream and work their way into the specs if this drags on longer. And may still happen even if it holds.
The important thing though is this... if they are going to change the branding so soon after releasing new Lumia flagships, then they will need to be markedly different as well.
Also, I could be wrong, and they could choose the brand the upcoming phones under the Surface name.
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