More Microsoft thoughts
This week the internet has been abuzz with rumors that Microsoft might be setting the stage to drop Windows Phone. It has been equally abuzz with rumors that this simply isn't going to happen. My initial thoughts on it were that it wouldn't happen, and then some new information made me change my mind to thinking it is possible.
I'm still thinking it is most likely that the seemingly related stories in fact have nothing to do with Windows Phone at all. But. unlike those who think it is impossible, I do think that the circumstances could allow for it IF the reason for these changes to mapping and ads are a direct result of a deal with Google. But then, it only makes sense to Microsoft to marginalize those businesses if they have a plan B for those specific businesses. The obvious plan B is Google. This could mean Android is the plan B, or it could mean that through an agreement of some sort Google would be permitted to provide those services on Windows Phone OR something else entirely.
Unfortunately, the IF above is a big one. And, even if it is accurate, I would still think that either of the non-Android routes are more possible.
In related news, people are still asking whether or not Windows 10 will save Windows Phone. And you still have it wrong. Windows 10 may be effectively guaranteed to quickly be installed on more PCs than Windows Phone 7 and 8 combined, but Windows Phone has a much larger catalogue of native applications than Windows 8 ever had. If you believe that the future of personal computing is tablets and smartphones, then Windows 10 needs the Windows Phone developers, not the other way around.
Sure, Windows Phone isn't a massive success. But the fact is, it is doing a hell of a lot better on the Windows Store front than the desktop version ever did. And that is key to long term survival; Apps built on a platform that was meant to support mobile devices from the ground up, vs Win32 where things like touch input and on-screen keyboards are after thoughts.
In fact, the strongest point for NOT killing off Windows Phone is simply to keep it alive long enough to entice the lions share of the developers that will eventually to produce a Universal Windows App version. Once that effort starts losing traction, that would be the smartest time to pull the plug on the platform if it still isn't performing. If they killed it off today, or in the near future they would lose the confidence of a large number of developers that they can't afford to lose.
Lastly, a lot of people seem to be stirring up hate about the fact that not everyone will get Windows 10 precisely on July 29th except Windows Insiders. I think this is much ado about nothing. The average person likely couldn't care less and certainly won't be sitting there staring at their calendars wondering why the date has come and gone and they still don't have the new version.
Those most likely to notice and care are in fact those in the Windows Insider program. The next most likely group are those running Windows 8 who hate it. And frankly, given their explanation on why the roll out will be staged, you have to think that Windows 8 machines will be second in line. Reasoning is simple. Windows 8 machines are pretty much all newer hardware. Existing drivers will be newer and less likely to clash with the new OS and the OS is newer, so there are fewer Windows 8 devices to upgrade. It's a win-win-win. It gets the most unhappy users upgraded first. It should be the easiest batch of machines to ensure works. It should be the smallest outside of the Insiders. And it will make OEMs happy to see that their recent devices are getting attention early on.
Windows 7 users are less likely to want the upgrade, or at least more likely to be hesitant after the bad press Windows 8 got. Since it is more of a Windows 8 reverting back to a more Windows 7-like OS they also have the least to gain. Their hardware will be out of the manufacturers warranty by now. Drivers will be on an even older driver model. There is a wider variety of hardware to support and in much larger numbers.
So, I tend to think that the staggered approach actually works out well for everyone if the approach is as above (and I can't see it being otherwise). For Insiders it is business as usual. Another build which they get to be the guinea pig for. Those who hate Windows 8 are next in line and the benefit from bugs found by Insiders. Those on Windows 7 who aren't sure what to think will get more time to form an opinion. As always, no plan can make everyone happy. This won't likely be any different. There will be Windows 7 users who are chomping at the bit and Windows 8 users who are skeptical. Despite the efforts, you can also pretty much guarantee some models will be broken for a few builds. But I truly think this plan is in everyone's best interest, which is why I don't quite get why it is newsworthy or worth bitching about. Oh well.
I'm still thinking it is most likely that the seemingly related stories in fact have nothing to do with Windows Phone at all. But. unlike those who think it is impossible, I do think that the circumstances could allow for it IF the reason for these changes to mapping and ads are a direct result of a deal with Google. But then, it only makes sense to Microsoft to marginalize those businesses if they have a plan B for those specific businesses. The obvious plan B is Google. This could mean Android is the plan B, or it could mean that through an agreement of some sort Google would be permitted to provide those services on Windows Phone OR something else entirely.
Unfortunately, the IF above is a big one. And, even if it is accurate, I would still think that either of the non-Android routes are more possible.
In related news, people are still asking whether or not Windows 10 will save Windows Phone. And you still have it wrong. Windows 10 may be effectively guaranteed to quickly be installed on more PCs than Windows Phone 7 and 8 combined, but Windows Phone has a much larger catalogue of native applications than Windows 8 ever had. If you believe that the future of personal computing is tablets and smartphones, then Windows 10 needs the Windows Phone developers, not the other way around.
Sure, Windows Phone isn't a massive success. But the fact is, it is doing a hell of a lot better on the Windows Store front than the desktop version ever did. And that is key to long term survival; Apps built on a platform that was meant to support mobile devices from the ground up, vs Win32 where things like touch input and on-screen keyboards are after thoughts.
In fact, the strongest point for NOT killing off Windows Phone is simply to keep it alive long enough to entice the lions share of the developers that will eventually to produce a Universal Windows App version. Once that effort starts losing traction, that would be the smartest time to pull the plug on the platform if it still isn't performing. If they killed it off today, or in the near future they would lose the confidence of a large number of developers that they can't afford to lose.
Lastly, a lot of people seem to be stirring up hate about the fact that not everyone will get Windows 10 precisely on July 29th except Windows Insiders. I think this is much ado about nothing. The average person likely couldn't care less and certainly won't be sitting there staring at their calendars wondering why the date has come and gone and they still don't have the new version.
Those most likely to notice and care are in fact those in the Windows Insider program. The next most likely group are those running Windows 8 who hate it. And frankly, given their explanation on why the roll out will be staged, you have to think that Windows 8 machines will be second in line. Reasoning is simple. Windows 8 machines are pretty much all newer hardware. Existing drivers will be newer and less likely to clash with the new OS and the OS is newer, so there are fewer Windows 8 devices to upgrade. It's a win-win-win. It gets the most unhappy users upgraded first. It should be the easiest batch of machines to ensure works. It should be the smallest outside of the Insiders. And it will make OEMs happy to see that their recent devices are getting attention early on.
Windows 7 users are less likely to want the upgrade, or at least more likely to be hesitant after the bad press Windows 8 got. Since it is more of a Windows 8 reverting back to a more Windows 7-like OS they also have the least to gain. Their hardware will be out of the manufacturers warranty by now. Drivers will be on an even older driver model. There is a wider variety of hardware to support and in much larger numbers.
So, I tend to think that the staggered approach actually works out well for everyone if the approach is as above (and I can't see it being otherwise). For Insiders it is business as usual. Another build which they get to be the guinea pig for. Those who hate Windows 8 are next in line and the benefit from bugs found by Insiders. Those on Windows 7 who aren't sure what to think will get more time to form an opinion. As always, no plan can make everyone happy. This won't likely be any different. There will be Windows 7 users who are chomping at the bit and Windows 8 users who are skeptical. Despite the efforts, you can also pretty much guarantee some models will be broken for a few builds. But I truly think this plan is in everyone's best interest, which is why I don't quite get why it is newsworthy or worth bitching about. Oh well.
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