More Windows 10 conspiracies!
FFS! How the hell are people THIS stupid?
In particular I'm talking about the portions of the article where they imply that Microsoft could use the forced updates to push adware on those that got the free upgrade and the part where it claims that peoples fears are valid that this could happen.
That is complete and utter stupidity. I'm going to ignore completely the fact that Microsoft has, through official channels, both claimed and confirmed the claim that the product key associated with the free upgrade puts you on the same SKU as someone who bought a copy and destroy these claims without that one little piece which has been confirmed numerous times and on its own destroys that argument entirely.
Lets start with where the fears began. People were confused about Microsoft offering a free upgrade. People read headlines and basically everything EXCEPT the official press material from Microsoft and got all sorts of wrong ideas ranging from the free year meaning they would screw you over after that first year if you took the upgrade to people thinking it was just flat out free so MS had to screw you over some other way to get their money. Of course, all of that has been refuted publicly and officially numerous times... but while the specifics have died many of the underlying fears lived on (because people are stupid). And those remnants are the basis of the new generation of fear mongering.
What has remained is an unfounded fear that those who take the free upgrade are setting themselves up to be preyed upon by Microsoft thanks to the inability to disable updates. So, in some ways, since their original fears got shot down, people basically tried to resurrect them by combining multiple existing fears.
But this makes absolutely no sense. Lets start with numbers. Initially, upgrades could account for a sizable portion of Windows 10 users. That is true. But the problem is that there is both a time limit and a finite source for those numbers. Whether 1% or 100% of eligible users take the free upgrade, after the first year, that ends. Period. The numbers cease to grow indefinitely. And with that, so too would the value of such a tactic.
The offer would be much more dubious if it weren't time limited, or better yet, if there were a separate free SKU of Windows. But neither is the case. As a result, what will naturally happen is that, whatever the number of users is that ultimately takes the upgrade, they will in short order be eclipsed by users with fresh OEM copies or retail keys. And the numbers will also fade over time as those users replace those PC's. In other words, in the long run it really isn't all that big a slice of the licensing pie. It is of minimal value in the long run. And ironically, for investors it is the short run that will be more important.
Ok, so in the long run it won't be much value. But there is still some value right? Still arguable. No one offered a free upgrade is going to buy a retail key. And just because you bombard users with adware doesn't mean they will generate any revenue for you as a result. In other word, even if it is a ticking time bomb, it will still generate revenue from only a tiny percentage of those it blows up on. So, it is not only just a splash in the long term pan... it is only a small splash in that already small pan. Again, if were other ongoing ways for people to get these free upgrade versions, then it would be a perpetually growing user base and it *might* start making sense. But too bad, it isn't.
But hey! Maybe they just want to be evil pricks? Sure! But lets assume that they are still evil pricks who actually want to profit. That is after all one of the fundamental reasons these rumours exist; free doesn't make sense because Microsoft clearly wants your money. Well, we've already established that such tactics aren't really going to make a difference in the long haul, and that only a small percentage of those who "fall for the trap" would then get suckered into generating any decent revenue for the company. So, does it cost MS anything to screw them over?
Absolutely. You add two kinds of overhead. Infrastructure and marketing. You need to track the product keys of everyone who took the free upgrade and your adware is a marketing campaign. The technical overhead probably doesn't cost tons, but it isn't free. Marketing on the other hand, costs money. LOTS of money. Just based on this alone the company would be hard pressed to break even.
But that isn't the only cost. Such a tactic isn't likely to help their image. It will cost them in long term sales. People clearly won't like feeling like the wool was pulled over their eyes when their free upgrade turns into a perpetual money grab. It will encourage people to leave for Macs or Chromebooks.
In the end, it seems unlikely this move would make them any money. And it seems unlikely that anyone with a brain would think it would. But then, those people ignore the obvious. This free upgrade tactic actually has the potential to do a lot for Microsoft, including in a financial way.
Firstly, it attempts to address one of the biggest problems Windows 8 had. No one built apps for Windows 8 because the hype had died down by the time the platform got big enough for developers to pay attention to it. This time around, if things pay off, there will be a very large install base of Windows 7 and 8.1 users onboard on day 1. This could generate a lot more developer interest and get a lot more apps into the Windows Store early on. And for your information... Microsoft makes money from their app store the same way Apple does.
Secondly, this move reduces OS fragmentation. One of the toughest things, especially with software the size if Windows, is supporting it. And one of those things that makes support a nightmare is software and hardware fragmentation. This does nothing about hardware fragmentation (though numerous driver cert and other programs help here), keeping all of your Windows 10 clients up to date effectively eliminates software fragmentation (within the scope of Windows 10 users). This should have huge savings on support costs. And money saved in support infrastructure is just as valuable as money earned. In fact, it is more important financially. And based on that it is easy to see that the more users they get onto Windows 10 from Win7/8 earlier, the greater the financial benfit.
Lastly, it is an important move in the "One Windows" strategy. Similar to the getting developers and people going through the Windows Store, a lot of other devices in the eco system (Xbox One, Windows Phone, HoloLens, etc...) will rely on features in Windows 10. Making it easier to get Windows 10 on existing devices should have a positive impact on sales across the board. Again, another beneficial move.
So, as you can see, you don't even need assurances from Redmond to invalidate these claims. But if that isn't enough, Microsoft has said time and again that once you're on Windows 10, "you're on Windows 10" and even gone on to elaborate and EXPLICITLY say that there will be no subscription or other money grab technique employed against you. You can also look to the fact that there is no separate SKU for versions taken during the free upgrade period. At the end of the day, it both doesn't make and has been explicitly denied.
In particular I'm talking about the portions of the article where they imply that Microsoft could use the forced updates to push adware on those that got the free upgrade and the part where it claims that peoples fears are valid that this could happen.
That is complete and utter stupidity. I'm going to ignore completely the fact that Microsoft has, through official channels, both claimed and confirmed the claim that the product key associated with the free upgrade puts you on the same SKU as someone who bought a copy and destroy these claims without that one little piece which has been confirmed numerous times and on its own destroys that argument entirely.
Lets start with where the fears began. People were confused about Microsoft offering a free upgrade. People read headlines and basically everything EXCEPT the official press material from Microsoft and got all sorts of wrong ideas ranging from the free year meaning they would screw you over after that first year if you took the upgrade to people thinking it was just flat out free so MS had to screw you over some other way to get their money. Of course, all of that has been refuted publicly and officially numerous times... but while the specifics have died many of the underlying fears lived on (because people are stupid). And those remnants are the basis of the new generation of fear mongering.
What has remained is an unfounded fear that those who take the free upgrade are setting themselves up to be preyed upon by Microsoft thanks to the inability to disable updates. So, in some ways, since their original fears got shot down, people basically tried to resurrect them by combining multiple existing fears.
But this makes absolutely no sense. Lets start with numbers. Initially, upgrades could account for a sizable portion of Windows 10 users. That is true. But the problem is that there is both a time limit and a finite source for those numbers. Whether 1% or 100% of eligible users take the free upgrade, after the first year, that ends. Period. The numbers cease to grow indefinitely. And with that, so too would the value of such a tactic.
The offer would be much more dubious if it weren't time limited, or better yet, if there were a separate free SKU of Windows. But neither is the case. As a result, what will naturally happen is that, whatever the number of users is that ultimately takes the upgrade, they will in short order be eclipsed by users with fresh OEM copies or retail keys. And the numbers will also fade over time as those users replace those PC's. In other words, in the long run it really isn't all that big a slice of the licensing pie. It is of minimal value in the long run. And ironically, for investors it is the short run that will be more important.
Ok, so in the long run it won't be much value. But there is still some value right? Still arguable. No one offered a free upgrade is going to buy a retail key. And just because you bombard users with adware doesn't mean they will generate any revenue for you as a result. In other word, even if it is a ticking time bomb, it will still generate revenue from only a tiny percentage of those it blows up on. So, it is not only just a splash in the long term pan... it is only a small splash in that already small pan. Again, if were other ongoing ways for people to get these free upgrade versions, then it would be a perpetually growing user base and it *might* start making sense. But too bad, it isn't.
But hey! Maybe they just want to be evil pricks? Sure! But lets assume that they are still evil pricks who actually want to profit. That is after all one of the fundamental reasons these rumours exist; free doesn't make sense because Microsoft clearly wants your money. Well, we've already established that such tactics aren't really going to make a difference in the long haul, and that only a small percentage of those who "fall for the trap" would then get suckered into generating any decent revenue for the company. So, does it cost MS anything to screw them over?
Absolutely. You add two kinds of overhead. Infrastructure and marketing. You need to track the product keys of everyone who took the free upgrade and your adware is a marketing campaign. The technical overhead probably doesn't cost tons, but it isn't free. Marketing on the other hand, costs money. LOTS of money. Just based on this alone the company would be hard pressed to break even.
But that isn't the only cost. Such a tactic isn't likely to help their image. It will cost them in long term sales. People clearly won't like feeling like the wool was pulled over their eyes when their free upgrade turns into a perpetual money grab. It will encourage people to leave for Macs or Chromebooks.
In the end, it seems unlikely this move would make them any money. And it seems unlikely that anyone with a brain would think it would. But then, those people ignore the obvious. This free upgrade tactic actually has the potential to do a lot for Microsoft, including in a financial way.
Firstly, it attempts to address one of the biggest problems Windows 8 had. No one built apps for Windows 8 because the hype had died down by the time the platform got big enough for developers to pay attention to it. This time around, if things pay off, there will be a very large install base of Windows 7 and 8.1 users onboard on day 1. This could generate a lot more developer interest and get a lot more apps into the Windows Store early on. And for your information... Microsoft makes money from their app store the same way Apple does.
Secondly, this move reduces OS fragmentation. One of the toughest things, especially with software the size if Windows, is supporting it. And one of those things that makes support a nightmare is software and hardware fragmentation. This does nothing about hardware fragmentation (though numerous driver cert and other programs help here), keeping all of your Windows 10 clients up to date effectively eliminates software fragmentation (within the scope of Windows 10 users). This should have huge savings on support costs. And money saved in support infrastructure is just as valuable as money earned. In fact, it is more important financially. And based on that it is easy to see that the more users they get onto Windows 10 from Win7/8 earlier, the greater the financial benfit.
Lastly, it is an important move in the "One Windows" strategy. Similar to the getting developers and people going through the Windows Store, a lot of other devices in the eco system (Xbox One, Windows Phone, HoloLens, etc...) will rely on features in Windows 10. Making it easier to get Windows 10 on existing devices should have a positive impact on sales across the board. Again, another beneficial move.
So, as you can see, you don't even need assurances from Redmond to invalidate these claims. But if that isn't enough, Microsoft has said time and again that once you're on Windows 10, "you're on Windows 10" and even gone on to elaborate and EXPLICITLY say that there will be no subscription or other money grab technique employed against you. You can also look to the fact that there is no separate SKU for versions taken during the free upgrade period. At the end of the day, it both doesn't make and has been explicitly denied.
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