Windows 10 to crush PC sales?
This article title made me laugh.
Sure. Some percent of sales will suffer. But is it likely to be huge? No.
I often say that the average consumer isn't aware of things like technical previews and the likes. But really, most consumers won't even know that Windows 10 is released. Sure, Windows will prompt them to upgrade, and in that capacity they will be made aware. But the point is actually different than that. The implication is that the average consumer historically buys a new computer to get a new Operating System and thus a free OS update would thwart sales.
Even many of the more technical people don't buy a new PC to get an OS update. And, those in the know who care will STILL buy new hardware, even with free upgrades. Some new features are hardware dependent and those who care about this sort of thing will know that.
For instance, I'm holding off on upgrading my phone until Windows 10 is released for phones. My current Lumia 1020 will run Windows 10. But I want continuum and I want new hardware. The fact that the OS upgrade is free changes nothing for me.
For the more average user, they'll buy a new computer when they buy a new computer. In fact, about the only reason why I can see a free upgrade changing anything is if it results in the PC running faster again. Many of my less tech savvy friends simply upgrade when their computer starts running slower. Windows 10 isn't really likely to have this impact on an up to date Windows 8.1 or Windows 7 PC. Windows 10 will allow an easy factory reset, but I doubt many typical users will do this simply to get their PC back up to speed.
The next problem is that the efficacy of a free upgrade on Windows is an unproven concept. The fact that a user can get a free upgrade doesn't mean that they will take it. Even wanting it isn't sufficient. The average person is afraid of technology. Not in a Sky Net, "computers are taking over the world" sort of way, but they tend to be completely terrified of the notion of changing anything on their own. I can't name a single person who isn't in IT or some explicitly technical field that has EVER upgraded desktop OS on their own. So I'm highly skeptical about how successful the upgrade offer will be in the first place.
It likely will have some effect. I'm just not convinced it will mean much to OEMs bottom lines.
Sure. Some percent of sales will suffer. But is it likely to be huge? No.
I often say that the average consumer isn't aware of things like technical previews and the likes. But really, most consumers won't even know that Windows 10 is released. Sure, Windows will prompt them to upgrade, and in that capacity they will be made aware. But the point is actually different than that. The implication is that the average consumer historically buys a new computer to get a new Operating System and thus a free OS update would thwart sales.
Even many of the more technical people don't buy a new PC to get an OS update. And, those in the know who care will STILL buy new hardware, even with free upgrades. Some new features are hardware dependent and those who care about this sort of thing will know that.
For instance, I'm holding off on upgrading my phone until Windows 10 is released for phones. My current Lumia 1020 will run Windows 10. But I want continuum and I want new hardware. The fact that the OS upgrade is free changes nothing for me.
For the more average user, they'll buy a new computer when they buy a new computer. In fact, about the only reason why I can see a free upgrade changing anything is if it results in the PC running faster again. Many of my less tech savvy friends simply upgrade when their computer starts running slower. Windows 10 isn't really likely to have this impact on an up to date Windows 8.1 or Windows 7 PC. Windows 10 will allow an easy factory reset, but I doubt many typical users will do this simply to get their PC back up to speed.
The next problem is that the efficacy of a free upgrade on Windows is an unproven concept. The fact that a user can get a free upgrade doesn't mean that they will take it. Even wanting it isn't sufficient. The average person is afraid of technology. Not in a Sky Net, "computers are taking over the world" sort of way, but they tend to be completely terrified of the notion of changing anything on their own. I can't name a single person who isn't in IT or some explicitly technical field that has EVER upgraded desktop OS on their own. So I'm highly skeptical about how successful the upgrade offer will be in the first place.
It likely will have some effect. I'm just not convinced it will mean much to OEMs bottom lines.
Comments
Post a Comment