Will Windows 10 save the PC Market?
Saw this headline. And the article pretty much nails it, but the headline is misleading nonetheless.
Desktop and laptop sales at the moment have nothing to do with the OS running on them. That segment of the computing market is just declining in general. If PC sales were steady or rising and the only issue was that those sales were all going to Apple or Chromebooks then it might make sense peg an OS change as a possible "turn of the tides". But that isn't the case, Apple sales and Chromebook sales may be growing YoY, but they still represent only a tiny portion of PC sales, and PC sales on the whole are declining. A new OS might stop the loss of market share or reverse that, but if sales in general continue to decline it really won't mean much for Microsoft or Intel.
And, frankly, I don't think its possible that an upgraded OS, or even a whole new one, would reverse that.
What has the possibility to change things is new technology. That technology may run Windows 10 and use Intel hardware, like HoloLens or new phones running Windows 10 on x86 hardware, or even new wearables that haven't been announced yet.
The problem with PC's isn't that the market is dead or dying. It is simply stabilizing. People are still buying laptops and desktops. But they aren't replacing them at the pace they used to and they aren't buying as many as they used to either. What you can basically expect is for sales to level out at some point and then grow YoY, more or less in direct proportion to population.
Intel is more likely to benefit from Windows 10 for Phone than for desktop. If new phones are released on Intel hardware, be they Anrdoid or Windows 10, that could yield a tangible increase in sales.
HoloLens is going to be an immeasurably small boost. At the speculated price point it is basically going to be early adopters only and I don't expect the early market to be huge. Maybe in future iterations things will change.
Desktop and laptop sales at the moment have nothing to do with the OS running on them. That segment of the computing market is just declining in general. If PC sales were steady or rising and the only issue was that those sales were all going to Apple or Chromebooks then it might make sense peg an OS change as a possible "turn of the tides". But that isn't the case, Apple sales and Chromebook sales may be growing YoY, but they still represent only a tiny portion of PC sales, and PC sales on the whole are declining. A new OS might stop the loss of market share or reverse that, but if sales in general continue to decline it really won't mean much for Microsoft or Intel.
And, frankly, I don't think its possible that an upgraded OS, or even a whole new one, would reverse that.
What has the possibility to change things is new technology. That technology may run Windows 10 and use Intel hardware, like HoloLens or new phones running Windows 10 on x86 hardware, or even new wearables that haven't been announced yet.
The problem with PC's isn't that the market is dead or dying. It is simply stabilizing. People are still buying laptops and desktops. But they aren't replacing them at the pace they used to and they aren't buying as many as they used to either. What you can basically expect is for sales to level out at some point and then grow YoY, more or less in direct proportion to population.
Intel is more likely to benefit from Windows 10 for Phone than for desktop. If new phones are released on Intel hardware, be they Anrdoid or Windows 10, that could yield a tangible increase in sales.
HoloLens is going to be an immeasurably small boost. At the speculated price point it is basically going to be early adopters only and I don't expect the early market to be huge. Maybe in future iterations things will change.
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