Cortana and others on Android and iOS the real blight.
I argued in a recent post that Projects Islandwood and Astoria were likely not the death knell of Windows Phone despite some few similarities to OS2 that helped spell its doom.
As a recap; OS2 died because the developers went to Windows and then Microsoft obsoleted Win16 leaving the devs in Microsoft's pockets and breaking OS2's runtime support for future binaries without more rework. In the case of Windows 10 however, neither iOS nor Android can truly afford to bail on their programming languages with the following they have now, and with 2 OS's their eggs aren't even all in one basket.
That is a dead horse now though. What I think truly spells trouble for the OS (though maybe not for the company as a whole) is the work going the other way; Bringing things like Cortana, OneDrive, Office and the likes to Android and iOS.
Yes, allowing iOS and Android apps to be easily ported or run on Windows makes it easier for developers to decide to stay on another platform or move there. But, realistically, they'll go where the money is. As stated before, Apple and Google won't likely be able to rapidly pull the rug out from under MS. It would hurt their devs and customers as well. Which means, if the move improves the app situation sufficiently on Windows to draw in larger numbers of customers, then it is practical to expect that devs at some point might start migrating to the Windows as well. While its true that these bridges allow devs to be lazy, what they truly want to be competitive is native apps. Ports are fine also ran systems.
This is where Microsoft's existing and ongoing efforts in cross platform could come back to bite them. While the OS itself offers something new and refreshing, many of these services are also key differentiators for the platform. By bringing them to the competition, they give the consumers less reason to switch to or stick with Windows. Apple and Google may not be able to pull the rug out fast, with time, both will be able to do it. In fact, Apple is doing something similar with Swift. If Swift gets wide enough adoption in the App Store, it is feasible to see Apple kill off the old approach in a future iOS release.
Either way, I think the people in the OS2 camp are focusing too much on the developers in an era of computing dominated by the consumers. The problem isn't where the developers are or are going. The developers are following the consumers. It is the decisions that make it easier for consumers not to care that will have the most impact.
You might argue that the situation was the same for OS2. But the difference is that in those days the developers, by and large, were the consumers. Today the consumers are their own group.
All of the doom and gloom aside. This doesn't inspire much confidence in Windows on phones. But as my earlier post pointed out... this may still be a good move in the long run for the company. They have chances to monetize these users and build up a dependence on their services.
As a recap; OS2 died because the developers went to Windows and then Microsoft obsoleted Win16 leaving the devs in Microsoft's pockets and breaking OS2's runtime support for future binaries without more rework. In the case of Windows 10 however, neither iOS nor Android can truly afford to bail on their programming languages with the following they have now, and with 2 OS's their eggs aren't even all in one basket.
That is a dead horse now though. What I think truly spells trouble for the OS (though maybe not for the company as a whole) is the work going the other way; Bringing things like Cortana, OneDrive, Office and the likes to Android and iOS.
Yes, allowing iOS and Android apps to be easily ported or run on Windows makes it easier for developers to decide to stay on another platform or move there. But, realistically, they'll go where the money is. As stated before, Apple and Google won't likely be able to rapidly pull the rug out from under MS. It would hurt their devs and customers as well. Which means, if the move improves the app situation sufficiently on Windows to draw in larger numbers of customers, then it is practical to expect that devs at some point might start migrating to the Windows as well. While its true that these bridges allow devs to be lazy, what they truly want to be competitive is native apps. Ports are fine also ran systems.
This is where Microsoft's existing and ongoing efforts in cross platform could come back to bite them. While the OS itself offers something new and refreshing, many of these services are also key differentiators for the platform. By bringing them to the competition, they give the consumers less reason to switch to or stick with Windows. Apple and Google may not be able to pull the rug out fast, with time, both will be able to do it. In fact, Apple is doing something similar with Swift. If Swift gets wide enough adoption in the App Store, it is feasible to see Apple kill off the old approach in a future iOS release.
Either way, I think the people in the OS2 camp are focusing too much on the developers in an era of computing dominated by the consumers. The problem isn't where the developers are or are going. The developers are following the consumers. It is the decisions that make it easier for consumers not to care that will have the most impact.
You might argue that the situation was the same for OS2. But the difference is that in those days the developers, by and large, were the consumers. Today the consumers are their own group.
All of the doom and gloom aside. This doesn't inspire much confidence in Windows on phones. But as my earlier post pointed out... this may still be a good move in the long run for the company. They have chances to monetize these users and build up a dependence on their services.
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