iPad Pro Rumour thoughts...
Today I was presented with an interesting rumour that an iPad Pro might be in the works and that such a device may be able to decimate the Surface Pro and the likes. Honestly, I don't think so. At least not any time soon and not without some big OS changes on one side of the fence or the other.
There are a host of problems from the possible platforms, to product positioning to cannibalization of sales.
The platform problem is this, does an Apple hybrid PC use iOS or MacOS? iOS was explicitly designed not to be a productivity centric OS and MacOS isn't really touch first friendly. Windows 8 and higher aren't perfect but at least large parts of the OS were designed with hybrid functionality in mind and that OS is already several years ahead of Apple AND no one seems super happy about it either.
Apple also has a pretty sweet deal right now. iPad's have helped drive up sales of MacOS products and people who already owner MacOS products were obviously more likely to buy an iPad than a Windows tablet. The problem with a hybrid is that regardless of OS it needs to be more expensive than an iPad Air because A) a productivity device should be high end specs so it should be based on iPad Air to begin with and B) comes inherently with more hardware (be it a detachable keyboard, or a foldable keyboard or some other mechanism. It also needs to be less expensive than a Mac Book if it is based on iOS.
Side Note: If it is based on MacOS then it would be situated, most likely, around or above the cost of a Mac Book Pro/Air and would effectively be non-competitive. I also doubt this choice, iOS can already work with keyboards and was designed for touch. Mac OS is nowhere near as mature with touch making it a much poorer hybrid OS choice.
Given where such a product would logically sit in the product line and what it aims to do, if it actually works out well as a hybrid device then there is no reason to buy an iPad or a Mac Book in addition to such a hybrid device. MAYBE an iPad Mini for some niche users. And that is the product cannibalization story.
This doesn't mean that Apple won't do it. I said that the iPad Mini would cannibalize the hell out of iPad sales. And it did. That was funny. They did it and pro-Apple analysts denied it was happening at first, general industry analysts said it would happen but not rampantly enough to cancel out the benefits from the additional sales... and then a year on basically everyone admitted that yeah, it had in fact cannibalized sales to such an extent that it likely hurt Apple's bottom line overall. Also, it lowered the perceived value of both iPads and tablets in general. Whoops! Who could have predicted that? Oh wait, I did. And I doubt I was alone.
This would be that all over again, but this time it would cannibalize their lucrative laptop market. Apple won't shed a tear if you buy their expensive hybrid instead of an iPad, but they will care if that means that you won't subsequently buy their expensive laptop that you otherwise would have bought. Especially if you would have bought both their expensive tablet and expensive laptop if the hybrid didn't exist.
I also think that at this stage of the game, there isn't really a lot demand for hybrids. Making the cannibalization story more meaningful this time around. The original iPad lineup prior to the mini at least had going for it the fact that they knew that a smaller and cheaper iPad would draw in new sales. The market for hybrids is much more nebulous.
Also, the assumption (somehow) remains that Apple never makes mistakes. Especially not with new products. And yet... Apple TV is no rampant sales success, Apple Pay is still terrible, the Apple Watch looks like it will be a fad. Lately, Apple hasn't really shown an aptitude for getting things right. The iPhone 6 and 6+ were largely successful because they replaced an existing popular product and brought out form factors that had been demanded for years. Neither of which are grounds for praise. Combine that with the fact that Apple's best answer to a hybrid OS is iOS. Unless Apple insanely prices such a thing competitively with the iPad Mini, the average consumer will just pick up a non-hybrid device instead.
There are a host of problems from the possible platforms, to product positioning to cannibalization of sales.
The platform problem is this, does an Apple hybrid PC use iOS or MacOS? iOS was explicitly designed not to be a productivity centric OS and MacOS isn't really touch first friendly. Windows 8 and higher aren't perfect but at least large parts of the OS were designed with hybrid functionality in mind and that OS is already several years ahead of Apple AND no one seems super happy about it either.
Apple also has a pretty sweet deal right now. iPad's have helped drive up sales of MacOS products and people who already owner MacOS products were obviously more likely to buy an iPad than a Windows tablet. The problem with a hybrid is that regardless of OS it needs to be more expensive than an iPad Air because A) a productivity device should be high end specs so it should be based on iPad Air to begin with and B) comes inherently with more hardware (be it a detachable keyboard, or a foldable keyboard or some other mechanism. It also needs to be less expensive than a Mac Book if it is based on iOS.
Side Note: If it is based on MacOS then it would be situated, most likely, around or above the cost of a Mac Book Pro/Air and would effectively be non-competitive. I also doubt this choice, iOS can already work with keyboards and was designed for touch. Mac OS is nowhere near as mature with touch making it a much poorer hybrid OS choice.
Given where such a product would logically sit in the product line and what it aims to do, if it actually works out well as a hybrid device then there is no reason to buy an iPad or a Mac Book in addition to such a hybrid device. MAYBE an iPad Mini for some niche users. And that is the product cannibalization story.
This doesn't mean that Apple won't do it. I said that the iPad Mini would cannibalize the hell out of iPad sales. And it did. That was funny. They did it and pro-Apple analysts denied it was happening at first, general industry analysts said it would happen but not rampantly enough to cancel out the benefits from the additional sales... and then a year on basically everyone admitted that yeah, it had in fact cannibalized sales to such an extent that it likely hurt Apple's bottom line overall. Also, it lowered the perceived value of both iPads and tablets in general. Whoops! Who could have predicted that? Oh wait, I did. And I doubt I was alone.
This would be that all over again, but this time it would cannibalize their lucrative laptop market. Apple won't shed a tear if you buy their expensive hybrid instead of an iPad, but they will care if that means that you won't subsequently buy their expensive laptop that you otherwise would have bought. Especially if you would have bought both their expensive tablet and expensive laptop if the hybrid didn't exist.
I also think that at this stage of the game, there isn't really a lot demand for hybrids. Making the cannibalization story more meaningful this time around. The original iPad lineup prior to the mini at least had going for it the fact that they knew that a smaller and cheaper iPad would draw in new sales. The market for hybrids is much more nebulous.
Also, the assumption (somehow) remains that Apple never makes mistakes. Especially not with new products. And yet... Apple TV is no rampant sales success, Apple Pay is still terrible, the Apple Watch looks like it will be a fad. Lately, Apple hasn't really shown an aptitude for getting things right. The iPhone 6 and 6+ were largely successful because they replaced an existing popular product and brought out form factors that had been demanded for years. Neither of which are grounds for praise. Combine that with the fact that Apple's best answer to a hybrid OS is iOS. Unless Apple insanely prices such a thing competitively with the iPad Mini, the average consumer will just pick up a non-hybrid device instead.
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