Pebble Kick Starter proves demand for Smart Watches?
The short answer is yes and no. But I read this on Twitter and nearly fell out of my chair laughing.
A Kick Starter can't possibly prove the market. Why? Because the market already exists. And it isn't doing amazingly.
So if Smart Watches are already around and not doing so great... why is this Kick Starter doing so well? Hard to be 100% sure, but I think that there are a few good reasons. The first is donation levels. The lowest is over $150 USD. It is also less of a gamble as Pebble is a well established company delivering exactly this sort of product, and they are probably the biggest player currently. Those last two are what makes the first one a successful strategy.
The other reason it is doing so well isn't simply because it is a smart watch. It is because it hits a bunch of key features many existing smart watches failed to nail. A weeks' worth of battery life being the biggest most likely. Coupled with the color screen and historical support for all apps from the prior iteration.
These facts separate this watch from every other smart watch in the market.
Frankly, I don't think anyone ever questioned that there was a market for wearables, and smart watches in particular. And that makes the statement even weirder. I don't even know what they are implying.
All this Kick Starter really proves is that no one has yet nailed down all of the pieces of what makes a successful smart watch. Not even this Kick Starter proves the product will be successful. The rewards in the form of watches are well under 1M units. No one would call a product that sells under 1M units in this market a success, and the hype tends to die down long before the finished product hits the streets. For a $200 piece of hardware that is a huge black hole of time and sales we don't know yet. It also means that their competition has a good idea of what they are up against.
It is one of the more promising devices out there from what I've seen. But then, the market is rapidly evolving and this isn't on the market yet. But I suspect it has the potential to do better than Apple Watch (for which I think the projected sales are insane).
When technology catches or someone makes the right compromises in a well marketed product, then I think we'll start seeing this segment booming.
A Kick Starter can't possibly prove the market. Why? Because the market already exists. And it isn't doing amazingly.
So if Smart Watches are already around and not doing so great... why is this Kick Starter doing so well? Hard to be 100% sure, but I think that there are a few good reasons. The first is donation levels. The lowest is over $150 USD. It is also less of a gamble as Pebble is a well established company delivering exactly this sort of product, and they are probably the biggest player currently. Those last two are what makes the first one a successful strategy.
The other reason it is doing so well isn't simply because it is a smart watch. It is because it hits a bunch of key features many existing smart watches failed to nail. A weeks' worth of battery life being the biggest most likely. Coupled with the color screen and historical support for all apps from the prior iteration.
These facts separate this watch from every other smart watch in the market.
Frankly, I don't think anyone ever questioned that there was a market for wearables, and smart watches in particular. And that makes the statement even weirder. I don't even know what they are implying.
All this Kick Starter really proves is that no one has yet nailed down all of the pieces of what makes a successful smart watch. Not even this Kick Starter proves the product will be successful. The rewards in the form of watches are well under 1M units. No one would call a product that sells under 1M units in this market a success, and the hype tends to die down long before the finished product hits the streets. For a $200 piece of hardware that is a huge black hole of time and sales we don't know yet. It also means that their competition has a good idea of what they are up against.
It is one of the more promising devices out there from what I've seen. But then, the market is rapidly evolving and this isn't on the market yet. But I suspect it has the potential to do better than Apple Watch (for which I think the projected sales are insane).
When technology catches or someone makes the right compromises in a well marketed product, then I think we'll start seeing this segment booming.
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