No room for a third mobile OS?
This is, was, and always will be a tricky thing to quantify. But I think that the answer is no, there isn't room for a third mobile OS. I would argue that there really isn't even room for 2. iOS has a measurable market share thanks to brand and image distinction alone. Apple fans and people who want a status symbol buy an iPhone. But, it is still a small slice of the market when compared to Android. Arguing that there is room for two would be saying that there is room in the auto industry to Ferrari's. There isn't. If the cars weren't outrageously expensive the company would die off next week. And if it died off, no one would fill its place (though other existing luxury performance car makers might cannibalize their sales, there won't be any newcomers).
The same is true of Apple. If Apple exited the mobile phone industry tomorrow, Windows Phone, BBOS, Firefox, Jolla Sailfish, etc... would likely not grow to take that share back in any meaningful way. The sales would, more than likely, simply move to Android.
And I haven't seen anything in the market over the years to indicate otherwise. In fact, at virtually every stage in smartphone history there has been only one dominant player. And others have only grown thanks to mistakes by others.
The first smartphone king would be BlackBerry. For the longest time they were the only thing on the market making any sales at all that could be classified as a smartphone. But, they were behind on implementing a touch first UI and a decent developer story for Apps. So when the iPhone came out it crushed BlackBerry and eventually was the clear winner. But Apple doesn't sell cheap devices. So, Android slowly took over. And that is where we are today. Apple has only retained some measure of success because of their image as a luxury brand.
This doesn't mean that Microsoft and the others should simply give up either. But the story is pretty simple. They need to offer something that Google can't respond too quickly enough that is meaningfully different enough to draw people to their platform. But, the problem is like the touch UI problem that hit BlackBerry, no one knows what that missing piece is until something comes out with succeeds in dethroning Android.
My best guess on something that might do it is one I've felt was missing for a while now, but which might create a fight between OEMs and Carriers. And that would be devices with upgradeable hardware based on a standard platform of some sort.
Phones today cannot be upgraded via hardware, period. And replacing broken components is a nightmare. Building a standardized hardware platform with user replaceable parts would actually make a compelling reason to switch platforms. Not everything needs to be replaceable either. Many things could come mated to the motherboard without irritating many such as the more common sensors, WiFi, Cellular and BT hardware. But upgradeable SoC, screen, RAM, camera(s) and onboard storage and (an outlier) less common sensors.
The first Platform to get this right will see me switch in a heartbeat. Google and Microsoft are I think the only 2 Platform makers with the chops to do this right across the board with MS having an edge both because of their experience with Windows drivers on PC's and because their next version of the OS brings most of their PC code to the phones. Also, Microsoft is a phone OEM now.
Why do I think this is huge? First is repairs. Screen repairs for new phones are costly because they are not consumer products and most people also have to pay for installation. Making screens a consumer sales unit brings more competition to pricing and making them user replaceable makes them more accessible. And I know people who seem to shatter a smartphone screen every 6 months. Motherboard failures almost always mean replacing is out of the question. If I'm cautious or accident prone I would jump on that bandwagon.
The next reason for me is cost. New phones, especially ones that beat out my old one on all accounts are expensive. Being able to upgrade just the pieces I need I too would save me tons.
The last reason for me may be the largest reason for many... customizability. If I like a particular case, I shove the guts of my phone in that case. And I can keep that case for as long or short as I like. My tastes change? Buy a new case, transfer the guts over again and keep rolling assuming it is the same size. No loss of contacts, settings, or anything.
But that is me being overly optimistic.
The same is true of Apple. If Apple exited the mobile phone industry tomorrow, Windows Phone, BBOS, Firefox, Jolla Sailfish, etc... would likely not grow to take that share back in any meaningful way. The sales would, more than likely, simply move to Android.
And I haven't seen anything in the market over the years to indicate otherwise. In fact, at virtually every stage in smartphone history there has been only one dominant player. And others have only grown thanks to mistakes by others.
The first smartphone king would be BlackBerry. For the longest time they were the only thing on the market making any sales at all that could be classified as a smartphone. But, they were behind on implementing a touch first UI and a decent developer story for Apps. So when the iPhone came out it crushed BlackBerry and eventually was the clear winner. But Apple doesn't sell cheap devices. So, Android slowly took over. And that is where we are today. Apple has only retained some measure of success because of their image as a luxury brand.
This doesn't mean that Microsoft and the others should simply give up either. But the story is pretty simple. They need to offer something that Google can't respond too quickly enough that is meaningfully different enough to draw people to their platform. But, the problem is like the touch UI problem that hit BlackBerry, no one knows what that missing piece is until something comes out with succeeds in dethroning Android.
My best guess on something that might do it is one I've felt was missing for a while now, but which might create a fight between OEMs and Carriers. And that would be devices with upgradeable hardware based on a standard platform of some sort.
Phones today cannot be upgraded via hardware, period. And replacing broken components is a nightmare. Building a standardized hardware platform with user replaceable parts would actually make a compelling reason to switch platforms. Not everything needs to be replaceable either. Many things could come mated to the motherboard without irritating many such as the more common sensors, WiFi, Cellular and BT hardware. But upgradeable SoC, screen, RAM, camera(s) and onboard storage and (an outlier) less common sensors.
The first Platform to get this right will see me switch in a heartbeat. Google and Microsoft are I think the only 2 Platform makers with the chops to do this right across the board with MS having an edge both because of their experience with Windows drivers on PC's and because their next version of the OS brings most of their PC code to the phones. Also, Microsoft is a phone OEM now.
Why do I think this is huge? First is repairs. Screen repairs for new phones are costly because they are not consumer products and most people also have to pay for installation. Making screens a consumer sales unit brings more competition to pricing and making them user replaceable makes them more accessible. And I know people who seem to shatter a smartphone screen every 6 months. Motherboard failures almost always mean replacing is out of the question. If I'm cautious or accident prone I would jump on that bandwagon.
The next reason for me is cost. New phones, especially ones that beat out my old one on all accounts are expensive. Being able to upgrade just the pieces I need I too would save me tons.
The last reason for me may be the largest reason for many... customizability. If I like a particular case, I shove the guts of my phone in that case. And I can keep that case for as long or short as I like. My tastes change? Buy a new case, transfer the guts over again and keep rolling assuming it is the same size. No loss of contacts, settings, or anything.
But that is me being overly optimistic.
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