Windows 10 last chance for MS?
Was reading this article and had to stop and think about it, and noticed a few amusing flaws with some larger holistic flaws.
Firstly, and perhaps most amusingly, the article is published by "Business Insider" which implies (to me at least) that its articles are intended to be pertinent to a business-y audience. And within that market virtually everything in the article is completely irrelevant. Android and ChromeOS are non-options and Apple is virtually non-existent from an IT admin perspective. If Windows 10 flops, it will be a flop with consumers only. IT by and large won't move due to a lack of options and a historical lack of fondness for moving at all. At worst, IT will delay upgrades as long as possible, which of course, is totally inline with their lack of will for changing anything.
The next most amusing fact is that they say next week is the make or break point. Well that is silly. The OS isn't being released next week. Heck, it isn't even the first preview edition that will be out. It will just be the consumer preview which less than 5% of the population will even acknowledge and less than 1% will actually use. Ultimately, Microsoft will pass or fail this iteration of Windows based on how the final product is received which is probably closer to 9 months away. What eventually ships may bear little resemblance to what is seen next week, it may be identical, or more than likely somewhere in between.
The final big fact that is amusing is that it won't really end Microsoft at all. Another flop would hurt, and probably hurt bad. The company doesn't have Apple's or Google's cash reserves but they could finance themselves for years still and easily a couple more versions of Windows. And that is assuming that after a massive flop they don't downsize. If they shrink the company they could operate even longer.
But even THAT misses the point. Windows sales, even before mobile devices started cannibalizing sales, were losing ground to things like Azure, Office 365 and other products and services the company offers. In many cases those products and services are not even tethered to Windows. Microsoft's plan for the long term appears to be to is to make those other services pervasive enough that even if all Windows branded OS's disappear they wouldn't miss a beat. And they aren't doing too bad on that front.
Having said that, even THAT isn't the whole story. Towards the end of last year we started to see tablet sales flat line as the market became saturated and smartphone sales, while still strong and growing started to slow down for the first time, where PC sales started picking up again. And, in the purely PC market, Windows is still king. That 15% metric is combining tablets, phones and traditional PC's which is absurd. Windows SKU's aren't competing directly with anything except the now stagnant tablet market to a degree and apparently reviving PC market.
Microsoft certainly has challenges ahead. But next week isn't ultimately that important for the company. Those deeply entrenched in tech will certainly feel it is. And many may point back to this week later if the OS flops. But this is show and tell. It's to generate hype and buzz. To draw back devs and excite OEM's. It will have a ripple effect, but the bulk of the pain or reward will be the first quarter after the OS is officially available and the average consumer is subjected to it. THAT is the true turning point.
Firstly, and perhaps most amusingly, the article is published by "Business Insider" which implies (to me at least) that its articles are intended to be pertinent to a business-y audience. And within that market virtually everything in the article is completely irrelevant. Android and ChromeOS are non-options and Apple is virtually non-existent from an IT admin perspective. If Windows 10 flops, it will be a flop with consumers only. IT by and large won't move due to a lack of options and a historical lack of fondness for moving at all. At worst, IT will delay upgrades as long as possible, which of course, is totally inline with their lack of will for changing anything.
The next most amusing fact is that they say next week is the make or break point. Well that is silly. The OS isn't being released next week. Heck, it isn't even the first preview edition that will be out. It will just be the consumer preview which less than 5% of the population will even acknowledge and less than 1% will actually use. Ultimately, Microsoft will pass or fail this iteration of Windows based on how the final product is received which is probably closer to 9 months away. What eventually ships may bear little resemblance to what is seen next week, it may be identical, or more than likely somewhere in between.
The final big fact that is amusing is that it won't really end Microsoft at all. Another flop would hurt, and probably hurt bad. The company doesn't have Apple's or Google's cash reserves but they could finance themselves for years still and easily a couple more versions of Windows. And that is assuming that after a massive flop they don't downsize. If they shrink the company they could operate even longer.
But even THAT misses the point. Windows sales, even before mobile devices started cannibalizing sales, were losing ground to things like Azure, Office 365 and other products and services the company offers. In many cases those products and services are not even tethered to Windows. Microsoft's plan for the long term appears to be to is to make those other services pervasive enough that even if all Windows branded OS's disappear they wouldn't miss a beat. And they aren't doing too bad on that front.
Having said that, even THAT isn't the whole story. Towards the end of last year we started to see tablet sales flat line as the market became saturated and smartphone sales, while still strong and growing started to slow down for the first time, where PC sales started picking up again. And, in the purely PC market, Windows is still king. That 15% metric is combining tablets, phones and traditional PC's which is absurd. Windows SKU's aren't competing directly with anything except the now stagnant tablet market to a degree and apparently reviving PC market.
Microsoft certainly has challenges ahead. But next week isn't ultimately that important for the company. Those deeply entrenched in tech will certainly feel it is. And many may point back to this week later if the OS flops. But this is show and tell. It's to generate hype and buzz. To draw back devs and excite OEM's. It will have a ripple effect, but the bulk of the pain or reward will be the first quarter after the OS is officially available and the average consumer is subjected to it. THAT is the true turning point.
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