Windows 10 effectively free for all*
There are some caveats, but I'm going to say it. Windows 10 is effectively free.
Yes, I know that all we have confirmation of is that it will be free for Windows 7, 8.1 and Phone 8.1 for the first year. But that should cover as close to 100% of cases as matters.
Lets start with compatibility and performance. I tried upgrading an Windows 8 tablet to Windows 10 and it was a nightmare. With some expertise the average person does not have access to I was able to make it work. In the final version I imagine a broader range will work out of the box more or less. But, as anyone who has ever attempted to upgrade a pre-built system to an OS which isn't officially supported will attest, even if it does work... it isn't 100%. Some things will need generic drivers, some things won't have drivers at all.
And lets face it, many OEM's who made Windows 7 PC's never bothered to make Windows 8 driver packs and they even less likely to go out and make Windows 10 drivers. Many Windows 8 devices will never see official Windows 10 support. Virtually nothing old than Windows 7 is going to see any degree of support. In other words, unless you downgraded a Windows 7 PC to an earlier version your hardware will likely have very little support even in terms of generic drivers on Windows 10.
The next problem is performance. Windows 7 may run leaner than Windows Vista but older than Windows 7 is now quite a few years ago. You likely don't want to run Windows 10 on your Vista or earlier era machines anyway if you actually even have one still running even if you can find drivers for everything.
Then there is viability of upgrades. Most consumers won't upgrade even at a price of free. They simply aren't comfortable with doing that sort of thing themselves.
So, those "left behind" are those running machines with an OS older than Windows 7, which have sufficient drivers to run on Windows 10, meet the specs and are actually willing to perform an OS update. I think that is likely a marginal number.
Most people who will want to upgrade to Windows 10 are likely already on a version that will get it for free. And, after a year is up virtually all new computers will ship with Windows 10 anyway. So, it should be rare that a user that actually wants Windows 10 will end up having to pay for it (took more than a year to decide to upgrade, bought an old/refurb computer which hadn't been upgraded, etc...).
But wait! There's more! We don't even know IF they will charge for those same upgrades after the year is up. All we know is that it is free for the first year. Pricing doesn't exist yet beyond that. Nor has the cost of retail discs been announced for those on OS's older than Windows 7.
OS could still end up being free across the board for consumers, or the upgrade for Windows 7+ could go on perpetually.
Frankly, given the free year and the likely reasons behind it, I would be surprised if free upgrades aren't continued in perpetuity for Windows 7 and up. And I would expect retail copies to end up costing just a little more than current OEM pricing for Windows 8, so in the realm of $15-35.
I don't believe Microsoft is aggressive enough to drop a non-free retail SKU entirely. But something in the sub-$50 realm certainly seems feasible.
Yes, I know that all we have confirmation of is that it will be free for Windows 7, 8.1 and Phone 8.1 for the first year. But that should cover as close to 100% of cases as matters.
Lets start with compatibility and performance. I tried upgrading an Windows 8 tablet to Windows 10 and it was a nightmare. With some expertise the average person does not have access to I was able to make it work. In the final version I imagine a broader range will work out of the box more or less. But, as anyone who has ever attempted to upgrade a pre-built system to an OS which isn't officially supported will attest, even if it does work... it isn't 100%. Some things will need generic drivers, some things won't have drivers at all.
And lets face it, many OEM's who made Windows 7 PC's never bothered to make Windows 8 driver packs and they even less likely to go out and make Windows 10 drivers. Many Windows 8 devices will never see official Windows 10 support. Virtually nothing old than Windows 7 is going to see any degree of support. In other words, unless you downgraded a Windows 7 PC to an earlier version your hardware will likely have very little support even in terms of generic drivers on Windows 10.
The next problem is performance. Windows 7 may run leaner than Windows Vista but older than Windows 7 is now quite a few years ago. You likely don't want to run Windows 10 on your Vista or earlier era machines anyway if you actually even have one still running even if you can find drivers for everything.
Then there is viability of upgrades. Most consumers won't upgrade even at a price of free. They simply aren't comfortable with doing that sort of thing themselves.
So, those "left behind" are those running machines with an OS older than Windows 7, which have sufficient drivers to run on Windows 10, meet the specs and are actually willing to perform an OS update. I think that is likely a marginal number.
Most people who will want to upgrade to Windows 10 are likely already on a version that will get it for free. And, after a year is up virtually all new computers will ship with Windows 10 anyway. So, it should be rare that a user that actually wants Windows 10 will end up having to pay for it (took more than a year to decide to upgrade, bought an old/refurb computer which hadn't been upgraded, etc...).
But wait! There's more! We don't even know IF they will charge for those same upgrades after the year is up. All we know is that it is free for the first year. Pricing doesn't exist yet beyond that. Nor has the cost of retail discs been announced for those on OS's older than Windows 7.
OS could still end up being free across the board for consumers, or the upgrade for Windows 7+ could go on perpetually.
Frankly, given the free year and the likely reasons behind it, I would be surprised if free upgrades aren't continued in perpetuity for Windows 7 and up. And I would expect retail copies to end up costing just a little more than current OEM pricing for Windows 8, so in the realm of $15-35.
I don't believe Microsoft is aggressive enough to drop a non-free retail SKU entirely. But something in the sub-$50 realm certainly seems feasible.
Comments
Post a Comment