More amusing Xbox One predictions...
I seriously wonder where analysts get their data.
The Xbox One finally outsold the PS4 for the first time in November and now some analysts are predicting that the Xbox One will continue this trend and match and surpass the PS4 in 2015.
I'm a huge fan of the Xbox One, but that prediction is pure rubbish.
Let's start with some basic facts. Sales of consoles are at their fastest in the first year of sales. The price cut which helped the Xbox One get those numbers is done and Microsoft still has a serious image/brand issue.
Right now the PS4 has, since launch, outsold the Xbox One by SEVERAL MILLION UNITS. In November, the month in question, 1.2 million XB1 units were sold in the US (largest sales market for both). So, if Microsoft sold that same 1.2 million units every month (unlikely, since November is the lead up to Christmas, so it is a larger sales month than usual) and Sony failed to sell a single unit (even more unlikely, borderline impossible in fact) it would STILL take several months to catch up.
The posts I read didn't indicate by what margin the Xbox One won, but I would wager it was less than a quarter million units globally. At that pace, (again unlikely for the above reasons) the whole of 2015 would only decrease the lead by 3 million units. Which I don't think would put them at #1 in total sales by a long shot.
If Microsoft gets back ahead, it won't be until 2016 at the earliest, but more likely 2017.
The other problem with the numbers of course is a total lack of context. Many of those sales may have been to people who already owned a PS4 and were just getting around to picking up the other console now that a decent amount of games are available. It doesn't change the fact that units were sold, but reasons like that could indicate that the PS4 is still largely more popular/desirable. And, if that is the case, Sony will likely spend more months ahead than behind Microsoft in console sales.
Had the Xbox One outsold the PS4 in a more trivial month, without the help of a temporary price drop and with no foreseeable reason I would still have a hard time swallowing such an optimistic prediction based on a total sales value that is so small relative to the total sales. Though, it would lend a lot more credence to such predictions.
Unfortunately, these estimates are nonsense. I have no clue who (with a degree in math) could ever possibly believe them.
I hate to admit it, but I think the price cut was the prime motivator of sales. And that has already ended. The silver lining is that there could be other reasons. Sunset Overdrive is getting stellar reviews, Halo Masterchief collection is out which is a stable of Xbox gamers and Halo 5 is out in beta. Also, the games lineup is growing which can't hurt (though PS4's is growing linearly with the XB1). Time will tell if they continue to close the gap and eventually turn it around. I think my 2017 estimate is optimistic however.
The Xbox One finally outsold the PS4 for the first time in November and now some analysts are predicting that the Xbox One will continue this trend and match and surpass the PS4 in 2015.
I'm a huge fan of the Xbox One, but that prediction is pure rubbish.
Let's start with some basic facts. Sales of consoles are at their fastest in the first year of sales. The price cut which helped the Xbox One get those numbers is done and Microsoft still has a serious image/brand issue.
Right now the PS4 has, since launch, outsold the Xbox One by SEVERAL MILLION UNITS. In November, the month in question, 1.2 million XB1 units were sold in the US (largest sales market for both). So, if Microsoft sold that same 1.2 million units every month (unlikely, since November is the lead up to Christmas, so it is a larger sales month than usual) and Sony failed to sell a single unit (even more unlikely, borderline impossible in fact) it would STILL take several months to catch up.
The posts I read didn't indicate by what margin the Xbox One won, but I would wager it was less than a quarter million units globally. At that pace, (again unlikely for the above reasons) the whole of 2015 would only decrease the lead by 3 million units. Which I don't think would put them at #1 in total sales by a long shot.
If Microsoft gets back ahead, it won't be until 2016 at the earliest, but more likely 2017.
The other problem with the numbers of course is a total lack of context. Many of those sales may have been to people who already owned a PS4 and were just getting around to picking up the other console now that a decent amount of games are available. It doesn't change the fact that units were sold, but reasons like that could indicate that the PS4 is still largely more popular/desirable. And, if that is the case, Sony will likely spend more months ahead than behind Microsoft in console sales.
Had the Xbox One outsold the PS4 in a more trivial month, without the help of a temporary price drop and with no foreseeable reason I would still have a hard time swallowing such an optimistic prediction based on a total sales value that is so small relative to the total sales. Though, it would lend a lot more credence to such predictions.
Unfortunately, these estimates are nonsense. I have no clue who (with a degree in math) could ever possibly believe them.
I hate to admit it, but I think the price cut was the prime motivator of sales. And that has already ended. The silver lining is that there could be other reasons. Sunset Overdrive is getting stellar reviews, Halo Masterchief collection is out which is a stable of Xbox gamers and Halo 5 is out in beta. Also, the games lineup is growing which can't hurt (though PS4's is growing linearly with the XB1). Time will tell if they continue to close the gap and eventually turn it around. I think my 2017 estimate is optimistic however.
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