Apple's recent unveil-a-thon.
I've gotta get this out of my system, because I know the vast majority may disagree with all of this. And I know it sounds absurdly biased, but I need to say it. That was a waste of everyone's time.
Two sizes of iPhone's, neither of which is the original size? Can you gamble any more on a product line? People think the problem with iPhone's declining market share is that people don't like the form factor. That's nonsense. iPhone's are EXPENSIVE. They are becoming boring iterative trash. This does not address those issues. And it creates a ton more.
So, first of all, abandoning the original size; Apple loyalists may see this as a kick in the face and abandoning Steve Jobs's ideals. And while there may be demand for devices with larger screens... there are also a good many who don't like huge cumbersome devices. Not everyone is forced to buy the monolithic iPhone 6+, but that doesn't mean that the regular iPhone 6 will meet the needs of those who liked the original size. So, by cutting out a size of device you've produced for years and was a fundamental design decision by the most iconic figurehead of the company seems like one big gamble.
But they didn't stop throwing the dice there. They didn't just abandon that size, they also decided to try and tackle the market with 2 new larger device sizes. The only basis for such a move would be if you could definitively say that people were leaving iOS for Android either because a 4 inch device was too small, or because the reason was purely based on a need or desire for a larger screen. I think that is BS as well. Each of the top competing phone OS's are SOOOOOO fundamentally different from the PoV of the average user that no (average) person in their right minds would abandon a platform simply because of screen size. The average person held out on upgrading their PC's as long as possible because they were afraid of Windows 8 FFS! Think about it.
I think the problem is that iPhone's were an over priced fad. Apple thinks it can win a substantial number of people back with such trivial changes. But even if it works, it will only be a Band-Aid solution all over again. The market cannot bear people spending that much on a new phone year after year. And sane people can't justify it when the iterative differences are largely inconsequential.
Apple has a loyal base of customers however. And that loyal base grew over the years they were at their peak. iPhone sales likely won't drop off a cliff any time soon. I just didn't see anything that I would expect to cause a second wave of unjustified uber-popularity and demand. Which is what it seems they are hoping for.
As far as problems it creates; one of the prime selling features of iPhones has always been their generally ubiquitous shape and size. Some accessories could even be used across generations of iPhone's but even though most still needed new designs each year for the new lineup, they were still easy to produce because it generally required only minor changes to existing designs. And since the form factor changed so little, the appeal of slightly modified accessories could general expect the same level of demand for each new phone.
This departure from that means it totally breaks any chance old accessories had of retaining compatibility. Speaker docks may need to be thrown out, cases, even ones without special cutouts for cameras and the likes are trash. The size changes are big enough that a simply tweak may not be sufficient. For instance, a case in the past with a certain thickness might have just made the iPhone feel the right size, on the new iPhones, keeping the same thickness may result in an undesirable case because it ends up making the phone too big. This means a greater investment on the part of accessory makers. And, an iPhone in those form factors is a completely untested product. They are changed physically by enough that prior sales are less reliable predictors for future sales.
Also, just because Apple made 2 fundamentally different phones from a form factor perspective that doesn't mean they are going to sell twice as many. This means that accessory makers either need to investment more into R&D and production to deliver accessories for both or put you money on one or the other and simply accept a smaller market.
The end result... I expect that there will be fewer quality accessories produced by 3rd parties for either device. And, as I've argued in the past, one of the biggest things iPhone has going for it is that being the most homogenous device they actually ended up with the widest array of customizability which, if you've ever looked at anyone's iPhone is clearly a huge reason for making the purchase. Basically, I can probably count on one hand the number of iPhone's I've seen in the wild without a custom case. But, amongst Android phones, they are either unprotected or using some bland generic case. So, for Apple, potentially hurting your 3rd party accessory makers by throwing more new form factors at them may end up being one the of bigger problems for this new lineup.
I'm likely blowing that concern out of proportion though. It will likely have no impact. But noted.
Next is the Apple Watch. Read my other post if you want more details. But, if this product isn't a massive flop, consumers are even bigger idiots than I thought. It is vastly more expensive, more restrictive and doesn't appear to address any of the glaring hardware faults in the current technology. I hate to make one of these references... but the Apple Watch never would have seen the light of day in its current state under Steve Jobs. It could stand to be more expensive if it dealt with the other issues like battery life, being tied to a specific phone OS or the fact that they are truly just dumb terminals. This product is late to the game and doesn't offer substantially more than its less expensive competition that works with a smart phone OS that is on something like 3x as many handsets.
Two sizes of iPhone's, neither of which is the original size? Can you gamble any more on a product line? People think the problem with iPhone's declining market share is that people don't like the form factor. That's nonsense. iPhone's are EXPENSIVE. They are becoming boring iterative trash. This does not address those issues. And it creates a ton more.
So, first of all, abandoning the original size; Apple loyalists may see this as a kick in the face and abandoning Steve Jobs's ideals. And while there may be demand for devices with larger screens... there are also a good many who don't like huge cumbersome devices. Not everyone is forced to buy the monolithic iPhone 6+, but that doesn't mean that the regular iPhone 6 will meet the needs of those who liked the original size. So, by cutting out a size of device you've produced for years and was a fundamental design decision by the most iconic figurehead of the company seems like one big gamble.
But they didn't stop throwing the dice there. They didn't just abandon that size, they also decided to try and tackle the market with 2 new larger device sizes. The only basis for such a move would be if you could definitively say that people were leaving iOS for Android either because a 4 inch device was too small, or because the reason was purely based on a need or desire for a larger screen. I think that is BS as well. Each of the top competing phone OS's are SOOOOOO fundamentally different from the PoV of the average user that no (average) person in their right minds would abandon a platform simply because of screen size. The average person held out on upgrading their PC's as long as possible because they were afraid of Windows 8 FFS! Think about it.
I think the problem is that iPhone's were an over priced fad. Apple thinks it can win a substantial number of people back with such trivial changes. But even if it works, it will only be a Band-Aid solution all over again. The market cannot bear people spending that much on a new phone year after year. And sane people can't justify it when the iterative differences are largely inconsequential.
Apple has a loyal base of customers however. And that loyal base grew over the years they were at their peak. iPhone sales likely won't drop off a cliff any time soon. I just didn't see anything that I would expect to cause a second wave of unjustified uber-popularity and demand. Which is what it seems they are hoping for.
As far as problems it creates; one of the prime selling features of iPhones has always been their generally ubiquitous shape and size. Some accessories could even be used across generations of iPhone's but even though most still needed new designs each year for the new lineup, they were still easy to produce because it generally required only minor changes to existing designs. And since the form factor changed so little, the appeal of slightly modified accessories could general expect the same level of demand for each new phone.
This departure from that means it totally breaks any chance old accessories had of retaining compatibility. Speaker docks may need to be thrown out, cases, even ones without special cutouts for cameras and the likes are trash. The size changes are big enough that a simply tweak may not be sufficient. For instance, a case in the past with a certain thickness might have just made the iPhone feel the right size, on the new iPhones, keeping the same thickness may result in an undesirable case because it ends up making the phone too big. This means a greater investment on the part of accessory makers. And, an iPhone in those form factors is a completely untested product. They are changed physically by enough that prior sales are less reliable predictors for future sales.
Also, just because Apple made 2 fundamentally different phones from a form factor perspective that doesn't mean they are going to sell twice as many. This means that accessory makers either need to investment more into R&D and production to deliver accessories for both or put you money on one or the other and simply accept a smaller market.
The end result... I expect that there will be fewer quality accessories produced by 3rd parties for either device. And, as I've argued in the past, one of the biggest things iPhone has going for it is that being the most homogenous device they actually ended up with the widest array of customizability which, if you've ever looked at anyone's iPhone is clearly a huge reason for making the purchase. Basically, I can probably count on one hand the number of iPhone's I've seen in the wild without a custom case. But, amongst Android phones, they are either unprotected or using some bland generic case. So, for Apple, potentially hurting your 3rd party accessory makers by throwing more new form factors at them may end up being one the of bigger problems for this new lineup.
I'm likely blowing that concern out of proportion though. It will likely have no impact. But noted.
Next is the Apple Watch. Read my other post if you want more details. But, if this product isn't a massive flop, consumers are even bigger idiots than I thought. It is vastly more expensive, more restrictive and doesn't appear to address any of the glaring hardware faults in the current technology. I hate to make one of these references... but the Apple Watch never would have seen the light of day in its current state under Steve Jobs. It could stand to be more expensive if it dealt with the other issues like battery life, being tied to a specific phone OS or the fact that they are truly just dumb terminals. This product is late to the game and doesn't offer substantially more than its less expensive competition that works with a smart phone OS that is on something like 3x as many handsets.
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