Apple Watch thoughts.
Wow! I was wrong, but only on one prediction. No mention of battery life. AT. ALL! Heck, I don't think they even acknowledged that the device had a battery. This tells me it is either miserable, or currently miserably and they are hoping to improve it before launch.
They also failed on price. And on requiring an iPhone (IE "smart" watch is just wrist sized dumb terminal + watch).
I still suspect when the final product ships that battery life will be better than competing smart watches (maybe 2-3 days instead of 1-2 or less). If they were expecting battery life to meet or exceed the 1 week mark there definitely would have been some mention of this.
Priced at $350 to start (let the "to start" sink in)... this is way too expensive for the average consumer. This is no iPad. It won't revolutionize the market. I'm not saying there won't be sales. But people don't spend hours a day staring at watches like they do a tablet. And that starting price is right in the iPad Mini price range. If you aren't already an Apple fan and you're in the market for an Apple product you're going to buy the tablet that is fully useable in its own right over the equally priced watch you'll never look at and requires an iPhone.
Which brings this whole unveiling to the worst aspect of it. It requires an iPhone. A stand alone "smart" watch stood a chance of revolutionizing the industry. One that integrates with Android stands a chance. One that integrates with both iOS and Android would be on par with a standalone one effectively. But a smart watch that costs as much as a tablet and requires one of the most expensive phones on the market and that phone has less than a quarter of the market share? Are they F***ING CRAZY?!?!?!?!
Android HAS SMART WATCHES ALREADY. And they have a greater variety. And they are WAY F***ING cheaper. They may not be the same quality... but that doesn't stop it from impacting the way people thing about them.
As a general rule of thumb, people are not going to abandon their current smart phone because they want an Apple Watch. Which means their practical MAXIMUM sellable base is about the size of the consumer base of iPhone's. But the price point prices many in that base out of the picture. Also, smart watches haven't exactly caught on a trend which further reduces the target market. And devices locked to a particular line of products is a deterrent for many even further reducing the target market.
As I said in the past... I don't think Apple ever truly had a magic touch that could turn a crappy device into a market success. The original iPhone made the smart phone experience both smarter and more immersive. The original iPad brought an amazing and consistent tablet experience in at a price point that blew competition out of the water. The original iPod's brought internal rechargeable batteries and high build quality to a market littered with shitty devices that died in days.
As I mentioned in my last post... Apple has had spectacular failures even after the iPod craze made the brand huge and while Jobs was still at the helm. Apple TV which didn't out compete on price or desirable features and the Mac Mini, which again was way over priced for a set-top box and under-powered compared to many competing computers, sometimes even in the same price point.
If anything, history has shown that when Apple makes a worthwhile product it does indeed become huge. Perhaps larger and more iconic than it deserves. But it has also shown that when they miss the mark that people will ignore their products just as quickly as any one else's.
In this case, I think they missed the mark big time. They are in the same boat Microsoft was with Windows Phone 7. They are late to the game with a product that isn't a game changer. The difference is that the market for cell phones is a LOT bigger than the market for smart watches. Apple could take the majority of the smart watch market and still not make enough on it to become a viable long term product line.
Time may prove me wrong. But I see nothing to be excited about, and I see a lot to be disappointed about. If I'm way off on the battery life thoughts it could change things... but again, I don't think, technologically, that it is possible for them to kick that issue.
They also failed on price. And on requiring an iPhone (IE "smart" watch is just wrist sized dumb terminal + watch).
I still suspect when the final product ships that battery life will be better than competing smart watches (maybe 2-3 days instead of 1-2 or less). If they were expecting battery life to meet or exceed the 1 week mark there definitely would have been some mention of this.
Priced at $350 to start (let the "to start" sink in)... this is way too expensive for the average consumer. This is no iPad. It won't revolutionize the market. I'm not saying there won't be sales. But people don't spend hours a day staring at watches like they do a tablet. And that starting price is right in the iPad Mini price range. If you aren't already an Apple fan and you're in the market for an Apple product you're going to buy the tablet that is fully useable in its own right over the equally priced watch you'll never look at and requires an iPhone.
Which brings this whole unveiling to the worst aspect of it. It requires an iPhone. A stand alone "smart" watch stood a chance of revolutionizing the industry. One that integrates with Android stands a chance. One that integrates with both iOS and Android would be on par with a standalone one effectively. But a smart watch that costs as much as a tablet and requires one of the most expensive phones on the market and that phone has less than a quarter of the market share? Are they F***ING CRAZY?!?!?!?!
Android HAS SMART WATCHES ALREADY. And they have a greater variety. And they are WAY F***ING cheaper. They may not be the same quality... but that doesn't stop it from impacting the way people thing about them.
As a general rule of thumb, people are not going to abandon their current smart phone because they want an Apple Watch. Which means their practical MAXIMUM sellable base is about the size of the consumer base of iPhone's. But the price point prices many in that base out of the picture. Also, smart watches haven't exactly caught on a trend which further reduces the target market. And devices locked to a particular line of products is a deterrent for many even further reducing the target market.
As I said in the past... I don't think Apple ever truly had a magic touch that could turn a crappy device into a market success. The original iPhone made the smart phone experience both smarter and more immersive. The original iPad brought an amazing and consistent tablet experience in at a price point that blew competition out of the water. The original iPod's brought internal rechargeable batteries and high build quality to a market littered with shitty devices that died in days.
As I mentioned in my last post... Apple has had spectacular failures even after the iPod craze made the brand huge and while Jobs was still at the helm. Apple TV which didn't out compete on price or desirable features and the Mac Mini, which again was way over priced for a set-top box and under-powered compared to many competing computers, sometimes even in the same price point.
If anything, history has shown that when Apple makes a worthwhile product it does indeed become huge. Perhaps larger and more iconic than it deserves. But it has also shown that when they miss the mark that people will ignore their products just as quickly as any one else's.
In this case, I think they missed the mark big time. They are in the same boat Microsoft was with Windows Phone 7. They are late to the game with a product that isn't a game changer. The difference is that the market for cell phones is a LOT bigger than the market for smart watches. Apple could take the majority of the smart watch market and still not make enough on it to become a viable long term product line.
Time may prove me wrong. But I see nothing to be excited about, and I see a lot to be disappointed about. If I'm way off on the battery life thoughts it could change things... but again, I don't think, technologically, that it is possible for them to kick that issue.
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