Another year, another iPhone
Always kind of blown away by the amount of press these events get. But I'm always more amused by Apple events than any other. Apple enjoyed a period where, by some industry miracle they were able to be both the most expensive product on the market and the one with the largest market share. But those days are behind them. Which is why the amount of press around these events is so interesting.
Apple doesn't have any competitors.
I'm not trying to insult Google or Microsoft with that statement. Heck, I'm not trying to praise Apple with it either. The reality is simple; Apple doesn't compete. If they did, their "bargain" iPhones wouldn't simply be last gen models. To a fault Apple refuses to budge on pricing or positioning. The drawback is that as the hype fades, so too does the market share. The average person doesn't repeatedly buy luxury goods. But, on the other side of things... those that didn't just buy into because of the hype will continue to buy into it.
Put another way, iOS is the Ferrari/Lambo/etc... of the tech world. Android, WP and BB are the GM's and Chevy's of the phone world. No one would dare say that Ferrari competes with domestics just because both sell cars. Just because other people are selling phones doesn't mean they are all competing with each other.
Competing would imply that Apple would be making moves to steal users from other device makers... but that would require them to target budget users as well as those that can afford premium devices. It would mean targeted advertising. It would mean competitive pricing. None of these things apply to Apple. So, if you're not an Apple fan today you're really all that likely to be one tomorrow. If you are an Apple fan today, you're not likely to leave them any time soon either.
What makes this even more boring is, unlike the car world where there are a number of auto makers in the same "tier" as Ferrari, there are no such competitors in the phone world. Apple stands alone at the stubborn luxury end of the spectrum.
Yes, Apple will lose phone users to other OS's. But those are not the users Apple was targeting to begin with. Apple will also snag users from other platforms. Again, for unsustainable reasons. For the foreseeable future however, those seeking a phone that doubles as something to snub their friends with (status symbol) will continue to buy Apple products. Not even the top of the line Samsung Galaxy and Note phones are even worth mentioning to the social "elite". The same, obviously, goes for those who aren't about status but are tried and true Apple fans.
Sure, a new phone might bring a minor resurgence in platform popularity. But these are just spikes. And we see them around every new flagship phone announcements. Some people hold out for new models, and if they are stealing users from another platform, it was usually someone who had made up their mind already but was just waiting on that particular device to come out. This spike is just the cancelling out of the dip in activity that happens before a major announcement like this. If you amortize the new sales out over the period in which sales dipped there would likely little to no difference in the normal order of things.
Anyway, the point here is that Apple has a core following. And they have no competition for that core following. And a new device is unlikely to change that. I know I'm being a tad impatient by not waiting 3 more hours to see what actually changes before making this prediction... but nothing earth shattering is going to be revealed. Releasing the phone in 2 sizes is only going to result in those people in their core markets giving them even more money (some will buy both, some will buy the more expensive one).
An iWatch would be boring at this stage, they are years late to the game and people have been predicting it for just as long. Just another thing for their core followers to throw money at. It is the Ferrari hat/jacket of the tech world. Who knows? Maybe they do have something else revolutionary up their sleeves. But at this stage it seems unlikely.
Basically, there is very little reason to get excited about this event. If market stats are accurate... most of the people reporting on it will actually be Android users. And most of those people aren't likely to switch as a result of what they see. Also, statistically, most people digesting the live feed, live blogs and post discussions will also be... Android users! And again, most are just watching out of curiosity rather than an intent to switch platforms. But hey! It will probably be one of the most watched internet events of all time anyway.
Apple doesn't have any competitors.
I'm not trying to insult Google or Microsoft with that statement. Heck, I'm not trying to praise Apple with it either. The reality is simple; Apple doesn't compete. If they did, their "bargain" iPhones wouldn't simply be last gen models. To a fault Apple refuses to budge on pricing or positioning. The drawback is that as the hype fades, so too does the market share. The average person doesn't repeatedly buy luxury goods. But, on the other side of things... those that didn't just buy into because of the hype will continue to buy into it.
Put another way, iOS is the Ferrari/Lambo/etc... of the tech world. Android, WP and BB are the GM's and Chevy's of the phone world. No one would dare say that Ferrari competes with domestics just because both sell cars. Just because other people are selling phones doesn't mean they are all competing with each other.
Competing would imply that Apple would be making moves to steal users from other device makers... but that would require them to target budget users as well as those that can afford premium devices. It would mean targeted advertising. It would mean competitive pricing. None of these things apply to Apple. So, if you're not an Apple fan today you're really all that likely to be one tomorrow. If you are an Apple fan today, you're not likely to leave them any time soon either.
What makes this even more boring is, unlike the car world where there are a number of auto makers in the same "tier" as Ferrari, there are no such competitors in the phone world. Apple stands alone at the stubborn luxury end of the spectrum.
Yes, Apple will lose phone users to other OS's. But those are not the users Apple was targeting to begin with. Apple will also snag users from other platforms. Again, for unsustainable reasons. For the foreseeable future however, those seeking a phone that doubles as something to snub their friends with (status symbol) will continue to buy Apple products. Not even the top of the line Samsung Galaxy and Note phones are even worth mentioning to the social "elite". The same, obviously, goes for those who aren't about status but are tried and true Apple fans.
Sure, a new phone might bring a minor resurgence in platform popularity. But these are just spikes. And we see them around every new flagship phone announcements. Some people hold out for new models, and if they are stealing users from another platform, it was usually someone who had made up their mind already but was just waiting on that particular device to come out. This spike is just the cancelling out of the dip in activity that happens before a major announcement like this. If you amortize the new sales out over the period in which sales dipped there would likely little to no difference in the normal order of things.
Anyway, the point here is that Apple has a core following. And they have no competition for that core following. And a new device is unlikely to change that. I know I'm being a tad impatient by not waiting 3 more hours to see what actually changes before making this prediction... but nothing earth shattering is going to be revealed. Releasing the phone in 2 sizes is only going to result in those people in their core markets giving them even more money (some will buy both, some will buy the more expensive one).
An iWatch would be boring at this stage, they are years late to the game and people have been predicting it for just as long. Just another thing for their core followers to throw money at. It is the Ferrari hat/jacket of the tech world. Who knows? Maybe they do have something else revolutionary up their sleeves. But at this stage it seems unlikely.
Basically, there is very little reason to get excited about this event. If market stats are accurate... most of the people reporting on it will actually be Android users. And most of those people aren't likely to switch as a result of what they see. Also, statistically, most people digesting the live feed, live blogs and post discussions will also be... Android users! And again, most are just watching out of curiosity rather than an intent to switch platforms. But hey! It will probably be one of the most watched internet events of all time anyway.
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