More on MS abandoning Windows Phone
Still more articles predicting or calling for this, amusingly, almost all of them reference Robert Scoble's remarks, which as I illustrated the other day were totally flawed to begin with.
But, there is a HUGE piece I completely over looked. Windows Threshold. At some point, Microsoft is going to further unify their OS's. This isn't going to be the "one version of Windows to rule them all" scenario that they painted earlier. But that changes little. The reality is that, over time, every Windows based OS will still converge more and more. And, at some point we may still truly hit that completely unified OS mark. Just not in the timeframe many originally expected.
Basically, at some point, they will share everything except the user interface, and perhaps apps. And, this will happen with Xbox and Windows Phone faster than, say Windows for IoT, because the hardware characteristics of your Xbox One and typical mid-range Windows Phone are sufficient to run WinRT already. It is just a matter of time before the bottom of the line devices reach that bar as well. At that point, form factor becomes the only true differentiator, which is why there will likely always be a separate UI layer. Although, theoretically, they could probably devise a unified UI layer as well at some point.
Once the OS's are unified sufficiently the cost associated with maintaining the Phone specific parts of the OS will drop to a point where they are negligible.
Universal apps/libraries are another part of the equation. Apps will still require separate versions between Phone and Tablet/PC for the foreseeable future, if not forever, but most of the core functionality can be done in universal libraries, making the apps, just as the OS, more a matter of maintaining multiple UI's than maintaining two completely disparate applications. Again, that is another division related to Windows Phone where overall company efforts and investment can be reclaimed.
And since we are not inherently far from that shift, the only reason I can see Microsoft abandoning Windows Phone, would be if they also abandoned Windows. Once they get the bulk of the code over that hill, improving Windows will also mean improving Windows Phone.
This doesn't mean that they won't ever get out of the hardware business. Maybe, somewhere down the road, they will shut down the Nokia hardware division or sell it off. But even that is likely nowhere on their radar. In fact, I do suspect this will happen eventually unless Microsoft becomes a lot better at selling hardware.
But, ultimately, my point is this; Windows Phone isn't going the way of the Kin or Zune. There was never any broader vision for those products. Their survival wasn't tied to that of anything else. Windows Phone's survival on the other hand is partly tied most of Microsoft's platforms, products and services.
Furthermore, it makes no sense to abandon the mobile market while holding onto an OS for the personal computing market. Smart phones are already a larger market than the personal computing market. There will come a time where, even if Microsoft never gets more than 4% of the mobile market and their share in the personal computing market never erodes below its current point that the 4% of smart phones will actually represent more devices than their majority stake in the personal computer market. That may be a slight exaggeration, but the point is relevant. The smart phone market is growing whereas their traditional market is shrinking.
But, there is a HUGE piece I completely over looked. Windows Threshold. At some point, Microsoft is going to further unify their OS's. This isn't going to be the "one version of Windows to rule them all" scenario that they painted earlier. But that changes little. The reality is that, over time, every Windows based OS will still converge more and more. And, at some point we may still truly hit that completely unified OS mark. Just not in the timeframe many originally expected.
Basically, at some point, they will share everything except the user interface, and perhaps apps. And, this will happen with Xbox and Windows Phone faster than, say Windows for IoT, because the hardware characteristics of your Xbox One and typical mid-range Windows Phone are sufficient to run WinRT already. It is just a matter of time before the bottom of the line devices reach that bar as well. At that point, form factor becomes the only true differentiator, which is why there will likely always be a separate UI layer. Although, theoretically, they could probably devise a unified UI layer as well at some point.
Once the OS's are unified sufficiently the cost associated with maintaining the Phone specific parts of the OS will drop to a point where they are negligible.
Universal apps/libraries are another part of the equation. Apps will still require separate versions between Phone and Tablet/PC for the foreseeable future, if not forever, but most of the core functionality can be done in universal libraries, making the apps, just as the OS, more a matter of maintaining multiple UI's than maintaining two completely disparate applications. Again, that is another division related to Windows Phone where overall company efforts and investment can be reclaimed.
And since we are not inherently far from that shift, the only reason I can see Microsoft abandoning Windows Phone, would be if they also abandoned Windows. Once they get the bulk of the code over that hill, improving Windows will also mean improving Windows Phone.
This doesn't mean that they won't ever get out of the hardware business. Maybe, somewhere down the road, they will shut down the Nokia hardware division or sell it off. But even that is likely nowhere on their radar. In fact, I do suspect this will happen eventually unless Microsoft becomes a lot better at selling hardware.
But, ultimately, my point is this; Windows Phone isn't going the way of the Kin or Zune. There was never any broader vision for those products. Their survival wasn't tied to that of anything else. Windows Phone's survival on the other hand is partly tied most of Microsoft's platforms, products and services.
Furthermore, it makes no sense to abandon the mobile market while holding onto an OS for the personal computing market. Smart phones are already a larger market than the personal computing market. There will come a time where, even if Microsoft never gets more than 4% of the mobile market and their share in the personal computing market never erodes below its current point that the 4% of smart phones will actually represent more devices than their majority stake in the personal computer market. That may be a slight exaggeration, but the point is relevant. The smart phone market is growing whereas their traditional market is shrinking.
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