Is the slight PC resurgence due to XP's expiration?
Another interesting one. I don't have solid numbers to back this. But my gut feel is no.
While I agree that support for XP expiring may have driven a large number of people to buy new PC's, by no means do I think that the group behind that trend is comparatively large enough to really make a dent if consumer interest on the whole is in decline.
The argument is actually pretty simple. Who cares if support for Windows XP is expiring? Businesses. My parents, myself, friends, family, and virtually every person I know from a consumer standpoint doesn't actually give a damn. Their computer, assuming it isn't broken already (XP stopped being shipped on new PC's YEARS ago after all) are still going to work. And that is what they care about.
If, by and large then, the only computers being actively replaced for the express reason that support for Windows XP is expiring... that immediately cuts down the size of the potential market driving this resurgence. You also have to cut out any businesses which:
A) Run something other than Windows in the first place (namely Macs).
B) Started business before Windows XP stopped being sold.
C) Hadn't already upgraded in a prior reporting period.
D) Are cheap/don't give a damn
The are likely in ascending order of impact. Many small business have no IT staff or department, and so they operate much like consumers and fall under D. Many larger companies with IT staff would likely fall under C. OS migrations may be a pain and costly, it really isn't just Windows XP many companies need. The newest versions of IE and .Net have not been able to be installed on Windows XP for some time now. And many corporations standardize around browsers or applications which may require features only available in newer versions of .Net. The IE one is probably the prime motivator though. Many IT departments default to IE as the corporate standard, and not being able to use the latest on XP means potentially big issues with rendering newer HTML5 based web sites.
So, in my estimation, the primary segment interested in upgrading for this reason was MUCH smaller than the consumer segment to begin with. And when you start hacking off those who upgraded prior to this or who simply don't care you end up with what is likely an insultingly small percentage of the market upgrading for this reason.
But that's still a gain right? Sure, in that segment. For this to be the driving force in supposedly breaking a downward trend would have to mean that the percentage of the market upgrading for this reason is bigger than the overall consumer YoY decline would have been. And that is where my skepticism comes in full force. Even if I'm drastically wrong in my thinking on how big the market upgrading for the explicit reason is, I would still find it hard to believe that it is sizeably larger than the previous years market decline.
I think the truth is actually tied to the slowing tablet sales. As I argued long ago, tablets are like any other tech, they will reach a saturation point in the market and then relapse to a more stable market size. And I think that is what we are seeing in the tablet sector. Another thing I said though was that never saw tablets (even the most powerful) as a laptop or a desktop replacement. And people (in my generation at least) will continue to buy them until something that truly does replace them comes out.
That decline in tablet sales means people aren't spending as much on tablets, so in theory they have more cash in their pockets. They also likely skipped their last PC/laptop upgrade due to buying a tablet. And now, this time around, instead of buying a new tablet, they are re-investing in their PC's.
Another possible cause is how those numbers are being arrived at. Does a Windows 8 tablet count as a laptop or tablet? It is running a full blown PC OS. How about convertibles? Tablets that come with keyboard docks or flip between laptop and tablet? Potentially, some number of devices that are in fact being used primarily as tablets are actually being classified as PC's. I mean, where do you draw the line? Reality is, it depends on accessories and how it is used. If I have a Surface Pro 3 which is perpetually on a desk in its docking station, then I would say its a PC. If you have no accessories and use it as a tablet 100% of time, then it is definitely a tablet. This isn't like Android or iOS where no matter what you tack onto it, it will always be a tablet due to the OS.
The truth is probably some combination of all of the above. For instance, business upgrading likely offset some of what would have been the normal shrinking from the market, where as people funnelling their dollars once spent on tablets back into revitalizing their PC's may have pushed it even further to break even, and then some confusion regarding how to report some types of devices likely lead to pushing it over the top and bringing it back into the black.
Also, there are undoubtedly a number of other factors as well. But I think the ones above represent a good stab at possible reasons for the big 3 behind this trend reversal.
While I agree that support for XP expiring may have driven a large number of people to buy new PC's, by no means do I think that the group behind that trend is comparatively large enough to really make a dent if consumer interest on the whole is in decline.
The argument is actually pretty simple. Who cares if support for Windows XP is expiring? Businesses. My parents, myself, friends, family, and virtually every person I know from a consumer standpoint doesn't actually give a damn. Their computer, assuming it isn't broken already (XP stopped being shipped on new PC's YEARS ago after all) are still going to work. And that is what they care about.
If, by and large then, the only computers being actively replaced for the express reason that support for Windows XP is expiring... that immediately cuts down the size of the potential market driving this resurgence. You also have to cut out any businesses which:
A) Run something other than Windows in the first place (namely Macs).
B) Started business before Windows XP stopped being sold.
C) Hadn't already upgraded in a prior reporting period.
D) Are cheap/don't give a damn
The are likely in ascending order of impact. Many small business have no IT staff or department, and so they operate much like consumers and fall under D. Many larger companies with IT staff would likely fall under C. OS migrations may be a pain and costly, it really isn't just Windows XP many companies need. The newest versions of IE and .Net have not been able to be installed on Windows XP for some time now. And many corporations standardize around browsers or applications which may require features only available in newer versions of .Net. The IE one is probably the prime motivator though. Many IT departments default to IE as the corporate standard, and not being able to use the latest on XP means potentially big issues with rendering newer HTML5 based web sites.
So, in my estimation, the primary segment interested in upgrading for this reason was MUCH smaller than the consumer segment to begin with. And when you start hacking off those who upgraded prior to this or who simply don't care you end up with what is likely an insultingly small percentage of the market upgrading for this reason.
But that's still a gain right? Sure, in that segment. For this to be the driving force in supposedly breaking a downward trend would have to mean that the percentage of the market upgrading for this reason is bigger than the overall consumer YoY decline would have been. And that is where my skepticism comes in full force. Even if I'm drastically wrong in my thinking on how big the market upgrading for the explicit reason is, I would still find it hard to believe that it is sizeably larger than the previous years market decline.
I think the truth is actually tied to the slowing tablet sales. As I argued long ago, tablets are like any other tech, they will reach a saturation point in the market and then relapse to a more stable market size. And I think that is what we are seeing in the tablet sector. Another thing I said though was that never saw tablets (even the most powerful) as a laptop or a desktop replacement. And people (in my generation at least) will continue to buy them until something that truly does replace them comes out.
That decline in tablet sales means people aren't spending as much on tablets, so in theory they have more cash in their pockets. They also likely skipped their last PC/laptop upgrade due to buying a tablet. And now, this time around, instead of buying a new tablet, they are re-investing in their PC's.
Another possible cause is how those numbers are being arrived at. Does a Windows 8 tablet count as a laptop or tablet? It is running a full blown PC OS. How about convertibles? Tablets that come with keyboard docks or flip between laptop and tablet? Potentially, some number of devices that are in fact being used primarily as tablets are actually being classified as PC's. I mean, where do you draw the line? Reality is, it depends on accessories and how it is used. If I have a Surface Pro 3 which is perpetually on a desk in its docking station, then I would say its a PC. If you have no accessories and use it as a tablet 100% of time, then it is definitely a tablet. This isn't like Android or iOS where no matter what you tack onto it, it will always be a tablet due to the OS.
The truth is probably some combination of all of the above. For instance, business upgrading likely offset some of what would have been the normal shrinking from the market, where as people funnelling their dollars once spent on tablets back into revitalizing their PC's may have pushed it even further to break even, and then some confusion regarding how to report some types of devices likely lead to pushing it over the top and bringing it back into the black.
Also, there are undoubtedly a number of other factors as well. But I think the ones above represent a good stab at possible reasons for the big 3 behind this trend reversal.
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