Polit-ageddon: Russia vs. the world (or at least the US)
This whole Ukraine incident looks to be attempting to prove or disprove the notion that the world's individual nations are too highly globalized for us to ever experience another wide scale world war.
In the beginning it seemed like Russia cared not for what the rest of the world felt of their actions in Ukraine. But the economy there takes rather substantial blows as more and more sanctions are layered on. Can Russia really afford to make enemies of the other world powers? Russia, arguably is in a better position than say, China. Many might think the opposite to be true. But imagine what blocking trade from China would do to that economy. Most of China's worth comes from exports. If they made enemies of the UK and the US billions of dollars a day would be lost. True, those countries refusing those exports would hurt as well, but if it came to war, you can bet trade would be halted which would cripple both sides of the equation.
Russia is much less dependent on import and export than China. But even the meagre sanctions thrown at them today are causing measurable impact on their stocks and companies. Many of Russia's top companies top investors may very well be from countries allied with the US. If those investments were forcibly withdrawn what would be the impact?
I'm not 100% certain we are past the point. But I speculate we have actually been past it for some time now. If threats and minor sanctions prove enough to break Putin we'll know for sure. Arguably the US and Russia are amongst the most independent nations out there who also have the means of being useful in a fully fledged war. If this is played out to its end and doesn't result in a long and drawn out war, then we will know that even nations like the US and Russia, once the most bitter of enemies, cannot even afford to publicly fight each other.
I think people tend to forget or simply never knew how different the world was during WW2. I don't know the whole of it, given I wasn't alive for it. But there were very few global companies. Most global trade was either for raw materials or exotic goods. Most stores in a given community were independently owned and not directly affected by the economy at large. Most of the high paid jobs were in extracting local resources or processing them; mining, assembly lines, etc...
Today, the world is VERY different. Most "local" stores are owned by multi-national companies and are publicly traded. They are directly impacted by market fluctuations. Most production jobs are outsourced. Very few jobs are tied directly to local resources. Imported goods are used in many job sectors. The computer I sit at now is very likely near to if not at 100% manufactured outside of North America. I make my livelihood on equipment that directly relies on components which you would be hard pressed to find being made on this continent. Maybe a fraction of my groceries are actually grown/produced in Canada.
And the situation doesn't change much in any developed nation. Or rather, if it does change, it changes from being a nation dependent on import to one dependent on export. Hence the China conundrum. China makes an impressive amount of "stuff". But their economy is dependent on other countries buying that stuff in staggering quantities. The net result is the same.
But I think the Russia-Ukraine-US thing will fizzle out. I don't think any nation actually wants to prove this point definitively. It would effectively be the same as admitting they are powerless against each other. Too powerless to even attack each other.
It is interesting how war has progressed. Pre-WW1 (assuming the situation were roughly as it were today, since I know Ukraine didn't exist in the same form Pre-WW1), Russia would simply march in and take it over. Pre-WW2, they might try to create some reason to invade first. These days, one country annexing another is basically impossible to accomplish without involving other countries.
In the beginning it seemed like Russia cared not for what the rest of the world felt of their actions in Ukraine. But the economy there takes rather substantial blows as more and more sanctions are layered on. Can Russia really afford to make enemies of the other world powers? Russia, arguably is in a better position than say, China. Many might think the opposite to be true. But imagine what blocking trade from China would do to that economy. Most of China's worth comes from exports. If they made enemies of the UK and the US billions of dollars a day would be lost. True, those countries refusing those exports would hurt as well, but if it came to war, you can bet trade would be halted which would cripple both sides of the equation.
Russia is much less dependent on import and export than China. But even the meagre sanctions thrown at them today are causing measurable impact on their stocks and companies. Many of Russia's top companies top investors may very well be from countries allied with the US. If those investments were forcibly withdrawn what would be the impact?
I'm not 100% certain we are past the point. But I speculate we have actually been past it for some time now. If threats and minor sanctions prove enough to break Putin we'll know for sure. Arguably the US and Russia are amongst the most independent nations out there who also have the means of being useful in a fully fledged war. If this is played out to its end and doesn't result in a long and drawn out war, then we will know that even nations like the US and Russia, once the most bitter of enemies, cannot even afford to publicly fight each other.
I think people tend to forget or simply never knew how different the world was during WW2. I don't know the whole of it, given I wasn't alive for it. But there were very few global companies. Most global trade was either for raw materials or exotic goods. Most stores in a given community were independently owned and not directly affected by the economy at large. Most of the high paid jobs were in extracting local resources or processing them; mining, assembly lines, etc...
Today, the world is VERY different. Most "local" stores are owned by multi-national companies and are publicly traded. They are directly impacted by market fluctuations. Most production jobs are outsourced. Very few jobs are tied directly to local resources. Imported goods are used in many job sectors. The computer I sit at now is very likely near to if not at 100% manufactured outside of North America. I make my livelihood on equipment that directly relies on components which you would be hard pressed to find being made on this continent. Maybe a fraction of my groceries are actually grown/produced in Canada.
And the situation doesn't change much in any developed nation. Or rather, if it does change, it changes from being a nation dependent on import to one dependent on export. Hence the China conundrum. China makes an impressive amount of "stuff". But their economy is dependent on other countries buying that stuff in staggering quantities. The net result is the same.
But I think the Russia-Ukraine-US thing will fizzle out. I don't think any nation actually wants to prove this point definitively. It would effectively be the same as admitting they are powerless against each other. Too powerless to even attack each other.
It is interesting how war has progressed. Pre-WW1 (assuming the situation were roughly as it were today, since I know Ukraine didn't exist in the same form Pre-WW1), Russia would simply march in and take it over. Pre-WW2, they might try to create some reason to invade first. These days, one country annexing another is basically impossible to accomplish without involving other countries.
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