Likely good news for Windows Phone 8 owners...
Last post of the day I hope. But as I re-read and re-though about the impact of converting the Nokia X line to run Windows Phone and the added words by Stephen Elop stressing that Microsoft would be targeting the budget end of the smart phone market something occurred to me. This should mean, that the next major version of Windows Phone should be able to run on current gen devices.
The basis for this is actually fairly simple. Even the newest line of low end Lumias are sporting just 512MB of RAM. Some are sporting quad cores, but they are very low frequency and in some cases, even last gen budget dual core WP devices had faster clock rates. In other words, in terms of hardware the bottom of the line Lumia's haven't raised the bar on hardware this last iteration around.
With Windows Phone 9 rumoured for 2015, I think about the worst you could expect is for 512MB phones to be islanded. If this trend remains, then it is hard to think of a reason why the current generation of Windows Phone hardware couldn't also power the next generation. If low end phones is their primary focus for Windows Phone then they will need to produce WP9 devices that are budget phones as well. And WP8 is already running the same kernel right now it is the .Net runtimes that differ between WP and Windows Store apps.
I also don't think they want to abandon their user base this time around. Their market share may be small but 4% is much larger both as a percentage and in terms of raw numbers than the market they had with WP7. And, the bulk of that market is on budget Lumia devices.
This of course doesn't guarantee anything. Perhaps RAM prices get to a point where they can produce the budget devices for the next gen with 1GB and they can't get what they want software-wise running on 512MB devices. Then, since they can't move the lions share forward anyway, they may abandon all older devices. Frankly, I think this would kill the OS once and for all though. People were pretty damn mad when WP7 users were abandoned when WP8 was released. For a platform still struggling to get off the ground, doing this again now that they have a bigger market to displease would be even worse.
My prediction is that all WP8 devices will get WP9, but then be abandoned for WP10. As a result WP9 might be lighter on features than hoped for with WP10 coming much more quickly on its heels than WP8 came after WP7. In fact, I'd be unsurprised what could pass for a GDR release being branded WP9 just to save face.
And, I think, failing that, they will try to at least bring forward the higher end devices even though the higher end devices make up less of their market than the lower end devices. Unlike WP7 where basically all phones had the same hardware as far as performance goes, WP8 has a broader spectrum and this should allow them to make a pity move for the higher end devices to save face and make for a stronger argument that it is hardware holding back the other devices. Also, those that own higher end devices are generally those who might try and sell someone else on the platform, so saving face with them makes even more sense. It might also foster a feeling that buying a higher end Windows Phone means investing in a phone that will be supported at the OS level longer.
That's all I've got for today.
The basis for this is actually fairly simple. Even the newest line of low end Lumias are sporting just 512MB of RAM. Some are sporting quad cores, but they are very low frequency and in some cases, even last gen budget dual core WP devices had faster clock rates. In other words, in terms of hardware the bottom of the line Lumia's haven't raised the bar on hardware this last iteration around.
With Windows Phone 9 rumoured for 2015, I think about the worst you could expect is for 512MB phones to be islanded. If this trend remains, then it is hard to think of a reason why the current generation of Windows Phone hardware couldn't also power the next generation. If low end phones is their primary focus for Windows Phone then they will need to produce WP9 devices that are budget phones as well. And WP8 is already running the same kernel right now it is the .Net runtimes that differ between WP and Windows Store apps.
I also don't think they want to abandon their user base this time around. Their market share may be small but 4% is much larger both as a percentage and in terms of raw numbers than the market they had with WP7. And, the bulk of that market is on budget Lumia devices.
This of course doesn't guarantee anything. Perhaps RAM prices get to a point where they can produce the budget devices for the next gen with 1GB and they can't get what they want software-wise running on 512MB devices. Then, since they can't move the lions share forward anyway, they may abandon all older devices. Frankly, I think this would kill the OS once and for all though. People were pretty damn mad when WP7 users were abandoned when WP8 was released. For a platform still struggling to get off the ground, doing this again now that they have a bigger market to displease would be even worse.
My prediction is that all WP8 devices will get WP9, but then be abandoned for WP10. As a result WP9 might be lighter on features than hoped for with WP10 coming much more quickly on its heels than WP8 came after WP7. In fact, I'd be unsurprised what could pass for a GDR release being branded WP9 just to save face.
And, I think, failing that, they will try to at least bring forward the higher end devices even though the higher end devices make up less of their market than the lower end devices. Unlike WP7 where basically all phones had the same hardware as far as performance goes, WP8 has a broader spectrum and this should allow them to make a pity move for the higher end devices to save face and make for a stronger argument that it is hardware holding back the other devices. Also, those that own higher end devices are generally those who might try and sell someone else on the platform, so saving face with them makes even more sense. It might also foster a feeling that buying a higher end Windows Phone means investing in a phone that will be supported at the OS level longer.
That's all I've got for today.
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