Cell-phones as an analogue to PC's
Currently, apple is experiencing a shift in sales trends where more and more last gen phones are being picked up compared to previous years (as a percentage) and iPad mini's are consuming more and more of their tablet sales. Meanwhile, the lions share of sales in both segments are trending towards Android. But in both segments growth is slowing down.
So what gives?
Well, I mentioned this a while ago. But I hadn't put it into perspective at the time. Cell-phones (and media tablets) are reaching the point now where PC's were when netbooks started popping up.
The pace of hardware advances has slowed to a near stop. Processors are largely improving in only one of two ways now. Adding cores, or increasing efficiency. Raw power gains have all but stopped. Also, the market is so full of legacy devices that app developers don't necessarily optimize around top end hardware anymore.
All of this is starting to create the same trend in cell phones that we are now seeing in computers. There is little need to get the top of the line device any longer. As a result, older iPhone and lower cost Android devices are picking up the slack.
Growth is slowing for the obvious reason that the market is more and more saturated, but also because the gaps between the benefits in new and existing hardware are shrinking.
And lastly, thanks to budget Android devices and the iPad mini, both the phone and tablet markets have been in a race to the bottom. People expect, I dare say even demand, better and better quality at lower price points and refuse to fork out the same cash today for the same class of hardware they got last year.
I remember my first laptop. My parents got it for me during my second year at University. It was relatively low end and cost $1100. Laptops had been out a while at the time. But these days, no one would accept a low end laptop for anything more than $400.
Margins are disappearing. OEM's are making less and less money, and slowly but surely the bottom will fall out on that market and OEM's will start to bail and either disappear or move on to the next fad.
The likely next fad? Wearable tech. It has all the hallmarks that mobile tech and PC's had in their prime. The current tech is crap. Processors that fit in such devices have a lot of room to grow in terms of power, battery and efficiency. So iterative generations of hardware will make a compelling argument. Display tech whether it be glasses, or watches, or whatever have a lot of room to grow. Alternative input mechanisms like voice and gestures have a ways to go as well.
And just like we did with the PC, the smartphone and the tablet. When it hits its prime, we'll all be blind and ignorant enough to think that growth in the segment will last forever.
Today, an off-contract iPhone or other top end phone can put you back $500-$800. I predict, in the next 5 years we will, as we did with laptops hit a point where virtually no one is willing to pay that much for a phone again. But we will somehow be justifying that for a smartwatch or smart glasses.
So what gives?
Well, I mentioned this a while ago. But I hadn't put it into perspective at the time. Cell-phones (and media tablets) are reaching the point now where PC's were when netbooks started popping up.
The pace of hardware advances has slowed to a near stop. Processors are largely improving in only one of two ways now. Adding cores, or increasing efficiency. Raw power gains have all but stopped. Also, the market is so full of legacy devices that app developers don't necessarily optimize around top end hardware anymore.
All of this is starting to create the same trend in cell phones that we are now seeing in computers. There is little need to get the top of the line device any longer. As a result, older iPhone and lower cost Android devices are picking up the slack.
Growth is slowing for the obvious reason that the market is more and more saturated, but also because the gaps between the benefits in new and existing hardware are shrinking.
And lastly, thanks to budget Android devices and the iPad mini, both the phone and tablet markets have been in a race to the bottom. People expect, I dare say even demand, better and better quality at lower price points and refuse to fork out the same cash today for the same class of hardware they got last year.
I remember my first laptop. My parents got it for me during my second year at University. It was relatively low end and cost $1100. Laptops had been out a while at the time. But these days, no one would accept a low end laptop for anything more than $400.
Margins are disappearing. OEM's are making less and less money, and slowly but surely the bottom will fall out on that market and OEM's will start to bail and either disappear or move on to the next fad.
The likely next fad? Wearable tech. It has all the hallmarks that mobile tech and PC's had in their prime. The current tech is crap. Processors that fit in such devices have a lot of room to grow in terms of power, battery and efficiency. So iterative generations of hardware will make a compelling argument. Display tech whether it be glasses, or watches, or whatever have a lot of room to grow. Alternative input mechanisms like voice and gestures have a ways to go as well.
And just like we did with the PC, the smartphone and the tablet. When it hits its prime, we'll all be blind and ignorant enough to think that growth in the segment will last forever.
Today, an off-contract iPhone or other top end phone can put you back $500-$800. I predict, in the next 5 years we will, as we did with laptops hit a point where virtually no one is willing to pay that much for a phone again. But we will somehow be justifying that for a smartwatch or smart glasses.
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