BBM for Windows Phone, Acer drops Windows Phone over lack of apps.
These two headings lately are inter-related in my mind.
I've long argued that measuring app stores in terms of total apps is complete and utter trash. A decent curated app store need not be more than 5k apps large growing by at most 250 apps per year. And the reason is simple. Beyond that, all you get is trash and clones. What DOES matter is which apps are in there. And I think both the 5k baseline and growing by 250/year is even overkill. What those numbers mean is that at any given moment there are at least 5k apps considered "must-have" by a reasonable percentage of the market and that 250 such new apps/games are created each year (with some going out of fashion).
And I think we can all agree that this simply isn't the case.
For all of those millions of apps, it always seems to be the same groups of apps that people cite as their reason for not picking up a Windows Phone. Way back in the early WP7 days it was an official Facebook app, then it was a decent 1st party YouTube app, then it was Vine. And the list went on that like. It was never the lack of the clones or trash apps. It was always the lack of a VERY small number of VERY specific apps, and by VERY specific publishers. It either a specific game, or an official version of an app for a specific service. And even going to extremes, this list is never viably longer than 50 apps.
Frankly, I think the correct approach is to allow side-loading and having an official app store that really only lets in those 5k +250/year apps that truly deserve to be there. Making useful apps more easy to discover in your app store. Right now, if you don't want a title you know the name of already and you don't want one of the featured titles, but want to go and find a new gem of a title you're basically screwed. But in this model, the crap apps would be dished up via 3rd party stores and the web and then sideloaded leaving the official app store for the apps the general person might actually give a damn about and which meet certain HIGH standards.
Which brings us back to the BBM announcement. To me this is a milestone. Windows Phone recently officially surpassed BlackBerry for the 3rd spot. And BBM is a rather big "must have" app. Their initial overlooking of Windows Phone was not surprising given their then CEO Thorsten Heins' public opinion of Microsoft and Windows Phone. That a company that was so against this platform would publish their crown jewel on this platform speaks volumes to the viability of the platform. Most of the major apps are there now. In fact, this is the one area where the platform has grown while awaiting the next major OS update.
Which makes Acer's public position a little awkward. Lately, the Windows Phone app store is barely lacking any big name apps. I won't argue that the total count has nothing on iOS' or Android's stores. Just that where it counts, the discrepancy has shrunk, and substantially, over time. Given the market share, I'm even surprised at how well that sector has grown for them. It still is truly a very low ROI for the app developers on that platform. Some of the larger sites like Facebook, Twitter and the likes see their success in emerging markets as critical, but devs focused on North America are tackling the platform as well, and there is much less to be gained there.
I'm not saying Acer's decision is wrong. I'm just saying their excuse seems like a lie. I think the market size for Windows Phone is the true reason. And a valid one. I for one am not looking forward to all of the new OEM's for Windows Phone. While, I love variety and competition, the market has to be large enough to support it. Otherwise, it runs the risk of causing the market to implode in on itself. If Acer were to release a WP8 device in North America today it would like fail utterly. And the few who bought one would be effectively screwed as Acer pulls back out of that market and ceases supporting them. Now imagine that same scenario played out over all of the OEM's Microsoft announced. Even worse... imagine that they both fail while also cannibalizing enough of the market to destroy the value the Lumia line brought in.
Basically, the point is simple. 9 new OEM's scares me because if you split the current market share 13 ways (9 new OEM's + the current ones Nokia, HTC, Huawei and Samsung) none of them would make enough profit to continue investing in Windows Phone.
Granted, I don't think this will happen. I think Nokia will continue to dominate. Which will just lead to an even slower death of the platform. Each of those OEM's has advertising dollars and clout with mobile partners. Each time one pulls out, they will deal another blow to the Windows Phone ecosystem.
The problem the OEM's have is simple though. It is expensive and a long haul to bring a new mobile OS into the market these days. Samsung may be the only player in the market with the funds and the base to do that. So, the other vendors are stuck with what they can license or get for free. And the only 2 viable ones are Android and Windows Phone. iOS isn't licensed and likely never will be and BB10 isn't currently being licensed to anyone that I'm aware of. Each of those OEM's already does Android phones. They are dabbling in Windows Phone because Samsung is driving them out of business on the Android side of things.
At the end of the day, there are simply too many OEM's at the moment. And, with the latest market numbers showing that mobile phone growth has started slowing down, this isn't a problem which is going to go away.
Anyway, this wasn't a super coherent post. Just rambling late into the night. But some stuff in there worth thinking on. Maybe I'll re-read this at some point and do a post that better frames my points and arguments. But probably not.
I've long argued that measuring app stores in terms of total apps is complete and utter trash. A decent curated app store need not be more than 5k apps large growing by at most 250 apps per year. And the reason is simple. Beyond that, all you get is trash and clones. What DOES matter is which apps are in there. And I think both the 5k baseline and growing by 250/year is even overkill. What those numbers mean is that at any given moment there are at least 5k apps considered "must-have" by a reasonable percentage of the market and that 250 such new apps/games are created each year (with some going out of fashion).
And I think we can all agree that this simply isn't the case.
For all of those millions of apps, it always seems to be the same groups of apps that people cite as their reason for not picking up a Windows Phone. Way back in the early WP7 days it was an official Facebook app, then it was a decent 1st party YouTube app, then it was Vine. And the list went on that like. It was never the lack of the clones or trash apps. It was always the lack of a VERY small number of VERY specific apps, and by VERY specific publishers. It either a specific game, or an official version of an app for a specific service. And even going to extremes, this list is never viably longer than 50 apps.
Frankly, I think the correct approach is to allow side-loading and having an official app store that really only lets in those 5k +250/year apps that truly deserve to be there. Making useful apps more easy to discover in your app store. Right now, if you don't want a title you know the name of already and you don't want one of the featured titles, but want to go and find a new gem of a title you're basically screwed. But in this model, the crap apps would be dished up via 3rd party stores and the web and then sideloaded leaving the official app store for the apps the general person might actually give a damn about and which meet certain HIGH standards.
Which brings us back to the BBM announcement. To me this is a milestone. Windows Phone recently officially surpassed BlackBerry for the 3rd spot. And BBM is a rather big "must have" app. Their initial overlooking of Windows Phone was not surprising given their then CEO Thorsten Heins' public opinion of Microsoft and Windows Phone. That a company that was so against this platform would publish their crown jewel on this platform speaks volumes to the viability of the platform. Most of the major apps are there now. In fact, this is the one area where the platform has grown while awaiting the next major OS update.
Which makes Acer's public position a little awkward. Lately, the Windows Phone app store is barely lacking any big name apps. I won't argue that the total count has nothing on iOS' or Android's stores. Just that where it counts, the discrepancy has shrunk, and substantially, over time. Given the market share, I'm even surprised at how well that sector has grown for them. It still is truly a very low ROI for the app developers on that platform. Some of the larger sites like Facebook, Twitter and the likes see their success in emerging markets as critical, but devs focused on North America are tackling the platform as well, and there is much less to be gained there.
I'm not saying Acer's decision is wrong. I'm just saying their excuse seems like a lie. I think the market size for Windows Phone is the true reason. And a valid one. I for one am not looking forward to all of the new OEM's for Windows Phone. While, I love variety and competition, the market has to be large enough to support it. Otherwise, it runs the risk of causing the market to implode in on itself. If Acer were to release a WP8 device in North America today it would like fail utterly. And the few who bought one would be effectively screwed as Acer pulls back out of that market and ceases supporting them. Now imagine that same scenario played out over all of the OEM's Microsoft announced. Even worse... imagine that they both fail while also cannibalizing enough of the market to destroy the value the Lumia line brought in.
Basically, the point is simple. 9 new OEM's scares me because if you split the current market share 13 ways (9 new OEM's + the current ones Nokia, HTC, Huawei and Samsung) none of them would make enough profit to continue investing in Windows Phone.
Granted, I don't think this will happen. I think Nokia will continue to dominate. Which will just lead to an even slower death of the platform. Each of those OEM's has advertising dollars and clout with mobile partners. Each time one pulls out, they will deal another blow to the Windows Phone ecosystem.
The problem the OEM's have is simple though. It is expensive and a long haul to bring a new mobile OS into the market these days. Samsung may be the only player in the market with the funds and the base to do that. So, the other vendors are stuck with what they can license or get for free. And the only 2 viable ones are Android and Windows Phone. iOS isn't licensed and likely never will be and BB10 isn't currently being licensed to anyone that I'm aware of. Each of those OEM's already does Android phones. They are dabbling in Windows Phone because Samsung is driving them out of business on the Android side of things.
At the end of the day, there are simply too many OEM's at the moment. And, with the latest market numbers showing that mobile phone growth has started slowing down, this isn't a problem which is going to go away.
Anyway, this wasn't a super coherent post. Just rambling late into the night. But some stuff in there worth thinking on. Maybe I'll re-read this at some point and do a post that better frames my points and arguments. But probably not.
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