Steam Box. A threat to console gaming?
This is another case of me not being entirely sure whether or not e-journalists are spin doctors or idiots. But, it isn't just the bloggers out there missing the point by a VAST margin. Gamers are somehow missing the salient points as well as proven by a string of comment deriding BOTH the Xbox One and PS4 for their "inferior" hardware.
So, is Steam Box going to be a huge contender in the console arena? Well, truthfully, it is really hard to say anything until it is out. Bad products often outsell good products. And on paper the Steam Box makes the PS4 and Xbox One look like children's toys. But history is not on their side. Especially not when it comes to those specs. But also for other reasons.
Steam's gaming console is going to be Linux based. This is a problem on 2 levels. Hardware support AND software support. Well, funny thing, that is the bulk of what any console is. Hardware and software. In fact, on a technical level, if you omit firmware it is ALL of what a console is.
Go look through Steam's catalogue of games and tell me how many in the top 10 run on Linux? On the new releases 3/10 support Linux, on the top sellers 3/10 again support Linux but 1 of them is on sale at 75% off, so we'll call that 2.5 out of 10 since games with such deep discount tend to make the top 10 based on price cuts alone and not demand, 1/10 on the coming soon and 4/10 on specials. Overall that is 12.5/40 or 31.25%. Less than 1/3 of their catalogue, IF that number is representative of their overall stock.
And, frankly, I doubt it is. I would peg the actual number, based on experience, much lower than that. Also, if you look at those titles, very few, if any are premium titles. These aren't the sort of games that console gamers play. These are the games the very young, or the very gaming illiterate play. They are the sorts of titles people play on a tablet or laptop because they already own one. These are not the sorts of titles a person goes out and buys a device explicitly for.
Steam would need to convince a large number of games studios to support Linux which seems unlikely OR leverage something like WINE. But, even WINE requires Microsoft binaries to get as close to full compatibility as possible. And, when you start profiting off a system running on WINE or a WINE-like software, you'll undoubtedly find patent suits. Linux tends to get a pass because there isn't generally a profitable entity to sue, and WINE doesn't come baked in, and the Windows binaries aren't baked into WINE, so there is very little Microsoft could sue over anyway in a tradional Linux OS.
On the topic of being sued, frankly, it seems to me like Valve, in choosing Linux as a base, ignored the biggest example in history of someone trying to turn Linux into a profitable base OS; Android where virtually every OEM has been sued and now has a license with Microsoft as a result. That alone is a huge gamble on the success of the platform. Licensing costs could either ruin Valve or drive the costs out of the feasible range.
The next hurdle for such a system is drivers and OS optimization. Virtually every console ever created has had shittier specs than even moderately powered current gen PC's, but have out performed a similarly spec'd PC by a wide margin.
In fact, relative to what is in the mainstream, I actually think both the Xbox One and PS4 are more powerful, relative to current tech than the Xbox 360 and PS3 were at their releases. What made these consoles run games better than their PC predecessors were optimizations at the OS and driver level. And lets face it, both Sony and Microsoft have decades on Valve at building such an OS. Both Sony and Microsoft have decades more experience than Valve at developing drivers. And both Sony and Microsoft have OS's that are better starting points for a gaming OS than Linux.
Don't read the specs and assume that because the Steam Box specs are better, that any cross-platform games it support will actually run any better.
And while you would also be wrong to assume they won't, history does look to be kicking the Steam Box while its down. Linux based systems have never run (games with native Linux ports included) as fast the as the same game running on the same hardware on Windows. And a game never runs as fast on a similarly spec'd Windows box as it does on a console. To me, that is 2 VERY large barriers that have existed for a VERY long time. In my opinion it is unlikely that Valve will be able in any reasonable timeframe to surpass BOTH barriers which have withstood the test of time.
So, while I can't say definitively that the Steam Box will be EFFECTIVELY less powerful than the Xbox One and PS4. I would advise anyone gambling, to gamble against it. Specs on paper are completely meaningless here. The solution which is holistically the best will win out. And the PS4 and Xbox One aren't far enough out of class on hardware to be beaten by that one factor alone. Not anywhere near it.
The problem for the incumbent device is a chicken and egg problem, similar to what Windows Phone is facing. You need a consumer base to attract developers. But you need the by-product of those developers (premium gaming titles in this case) to attract the consumer base.
On paper, the Steam Box looks stunning. And I think a lot of early adopters WILL be stunned. But not for the reasons they are expecting. A ton of hard core gamers who support Steam whole heartedly are going to find the games they love on Steam aren't available, and the graphics quality is poorer than they would have expected given the hardware that thing is packing. And the reason is simple... most mainstream gamers have never touched a PC Linux distro. They have no clue how limiting the Linux flavor of their favourite platform is.
Even Macs enjoy a much wider selection of games than Linux. Based on those same metrics from earlier, there are 5/10 new releases, 5/10 top sellers, 2/10 coming soon and a whopping 7/10 specials support Mac. 10/10 in all 4 categories support PC.
To add more to that point... there are quality console game titles that are never released on even PC.
So, tell me again? Do you REALLY think the Steam Box is a threat to console gaming?
So, is Steam Box going to be a huge contender in the console arena? Well, truthfully, it is really hard to say anything until it is out. Bad products often outsell good products. And on paper the Steam Box makes the PS4 and Xbox One look like children's toys. But history is not on their side. Especially not when it comes to those specs. But also for other reasons.
Steam's gaming console is going to be Linux based. This is a problem on 2 levels. Hardware support AND software support. Well, funny thing, that is the bulk of what any console is. Hardware and software. In fact, on a technical level, if you omit firmware it is ALL of what a console is.
Go look through Steam's catalogue of games and tell me how many in the top 10 run on Linux? On the new releases 3/10 support Linux, on the top sellers 3/10 again support Linux but 1 of them is on sale at 75% off, so we'll call that 2.5 out of 10 since games with such deep discount tend to make the top 10 based on price cuts alone and not demand, 1/10 on the coming soon and 4/10 on specials. Overall that is 12.5/40 or 31.25%. Less than 1/3 of their catalogue, IF that number is representative of their overall stock.
And, frankly, I doubt it is. I would peg the actual number, based on experience, much lower than that. Also, if you look at those titles, very few, if any are premium titles. These aren't the sort of games that console gamers play. These are the games the very young, or the very gaming illiterate play. They are the sorts of titles people play on a tablet or laptop because they already own one. These are not the sorts of titles a person goes out and buys a device explicitly for.
Steam would need to convince a large number of games studios to support Linux which seems unlikely OR leverage something like WINE. But, even WINE requires Microsoft binaries to get as close to full compatibility as possible. And, when you start profiting off a system running on WINE or a WINE-like software, you'll undoubtedly find patent suits. Linux tends to get a pass because there isn't generally a profitable entity to sue, and WINE doesn't come baked in, and the Windows binaries aren't baked into WINE, so there is very little Microsoft could sue over anyway in a tradional Linux OS.
On the topic of being sued, frankly, it seems to me like Valve, in choosing Linux as a base, ignored the biggest example in history of someone trying to turn Linux into a profitable base OS; Android where virtually every OEM has been sued and now has a license with Microsoft as a result. That alone is a huge gamble on the success of the platform. Licensing costs could either ruin Valve or drive the costs out of the feasible range.
The next hurdle for such a system is drivers and OS optimization. Virtually every console ever created has had shittier specs than even moderately powered current gen PC's, but have out performed a similarly spec'd PC by a wide margin.
In fact, relative to what is in the mainstream, I actually think both the Xbox One and PS4 are more powerful, relative to current tech than the Xbox 360 and PS3 were at their releases. What made these consoles run games better than their PC predecessors were optimizations at the OS and driver level. And lets face it, both Sony and Microsoft have decades on Valve at building such an OS. Both Sony and Microsoft have decades more experience than Valve at developing drivers. And both Sony and Microsoft have OS's that are better starting points for a gaming OS than Linux.
Don't read the specs and assume that because the Steam Box specs are better, that any cross-platform games it support will actually run any better.
And while you would also be wrong to assume they won't, history does look to be kicking the Steam Box while its down. Linux based systems have never run (games with native Linux ports included) as fast the as the same game running on the same hardware on Windows. And a game never runs as fast on a similarly spec'd Windows box as it does on a console. To me, that is 2 VERY large barriers that have existed for a VERY long time. In my opinion it is unlikely that Valve will be able in any reasonable timeframe to surpass BOTH barriers which have withstood the test of time.
So, while I can't say definitively that the Steam Box will be EFFECTIVELY less powerful than the Xbox One and PS4. I would advise anyone gambling, to gamble against it. Specs on paper are completely meaningless here. The solution which is holistically the best will win out. And the PS4 and Xbox One aren't far enough out of class on hardware to be beaten by that one factor alone. Not anywhere near it.
The problem for the incumbent device is a chicken and egg problem, similar to what Windows Phone is facing. You need a consumer base to attract developers. But you need the by-product of those developers (premium gaming titles in this case) to attract the consumer base.
On paper, the Steam Box looks stunning. And I think a lot of early adopters WILL be stunned. But not for the reasons they are expecting. A ton of hard core gamers who support Steam whole heartedly are going to find the games they love on Steam aren't available, and the graphics quality is poorer than they would have expected given the hardware that thing is packing. And the reason is simple... most mainstream gamers have never touched a PC Linux distro. They have no clue how limiting the Linux flavor of their favourite platform is.
Even Macs enjoy a much wider selection of games than Linux. Based on those same metrics from earlier, there are 5/10 new releases, 5/10 top sellers, 2/10 coming soon and a whopping 7/10 specials support Mac. 10/10 in all 4 categories support PC.
To add more to that point... there are quality console game titles that are never released on even PC.
So, tell me again? Do you REALLY think the Steam Box is a threat to console gaming?
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