Console sales thoughts.
I'm keeping up on my PS4 and Xbox One news on a fairly regular basis. Does it seem to anyone else that the fanboys here are worse even than in the Apple vs. Microsoft camp? I can't get over it. Frankly, given how strong the bias seems to be I'm not even sure it is worth reading any articles on the matter at the moment. Take this article for example. The article CLEARLY states that the store in the article (and for the most the stores mentioned in the comments) RECEIVED more Xbox Ones than PlayStations. And yet many of the posters still suggest that this is somehow because the PS4 is selling better. From memory at least 3 people suggested this or something like it in the comments.
If you continue to follow the comments things get even worse. People actually offer up perfectly valid reasons why Microsoft has more units than Sony, supposedly citing news from Microsoft that one reason they chose DDR3 over DDR5 was to improve the yields. And people still jump to the defense of Sony... like they actually need it!
Someone actually mocked the difference between the 6 PS4 and 24 Xb1 units available claiming it wasn't much of a difference at all. Nothing could be further from the truth. Firstly, because this appears to be the case in not just a single location. It seems to be, based on the comments, a rather consistent ratio across the board. Yes, 24 units is not a lot. But compared to 6, it is massive. It also means that Microsoft has the potential to sell 4x as many units. There is no guarantee they will sell them all, but they could.
I'm in the MS camp. But, the PS4 looks like a damn fine unit. If I had an extra $400 burning a hole in my pocket I'd probably pick up one of those in addition to my Xbox One. I don't actually have anything against the PS4. I feel like all it is, is an upgraded PS3. And, that isn't necessarily a bad thing. In fact, I wouldn't feel like that is a problem were it not for the felt like I felt the Xbox One had more potential. As I've said before, the guarantee for developers that Kinect is there and the TV integration have huge potential. Even if they don't deliver day 1, updates to these and other features may induce some buyers remorse in PS4 owners down the road.
But enough bias from me for now. Back to the numbers. Availability is king. Both consoles are less than a month old and Christmas is less than a month away. Sony's limited stock basically guarantees they will sell virtually every unit they put out there, and maybe that is Sony's strategy. But it also means that some people who want one, won't be able to get one.
Microsoft's approach on the other hand is apparently to get enough units out there to make sure people can just walk into a retail outlet and buy one before Christmas.
I don't doubt that someone looking to buy a PS4 (or someone on the fence) will walk into a store with the intent of picking up a PS4, but walk out with an Xbox instead based on availability alone. When it comes to Christmas presents, you need to be able to buy it to put it under the tree. Microsoft will also win the impulse buyers if their plan succeeds.
But here is the thing. If Microsoft does succeed and manages to keep Xbox One's on shelves throughout the Christmas period they will have won for the reasons above. But, if Microsoft "fails", that means they sold out of roughly 4x the stock that Sony had based on information available at the moment. And as you can tell, that isn't really a failure at all.
In fact, if Microsoft still manages to sell out, it could mean a long painful battle for Sony. Imagine how many more game studios might choose to target Microsoft's platform exclusively if they managed to outsell the PS4 by 4x in 2013 despite Sony having a 1 week advantage (1 week is meaningful because there were only 6 weeks left in the year when the PS4 came out, so that one week is 10-20% more sales time during 2013). And, make no mistake, people were questioning whether there was still a market for console gaming platforms. Now that the market appears to have been vindicated, many game studios will be watching the tallies for this year to determine which platform to throw their weight behind. And, while it may be a year or more before the effects of this actually trickle down it could set the stage for a massively uphill battle for Sony.
On the hand. If Microsoft pushes almost none of those excess units... Sony being able to say they were sold out all season, even if that means not selling more units than Microsoft, may still win out on perception.
Perhaps the reality is this; Microsoft made a big gamble and there are more ways that it will pay off than back fire. But it could still back fire.
[update]
It's quite a bit later now than when I originally wrote this. And much I have said seems to be coming true. But the idiocy and contrary claims are insane. The vast majority of sites are reporting that Sony has already won and is outselling Xbox One. But all of those claims rely on the same regional data or on a comparison of numbers that weren't released in the same timeframe.
In the UK, the PS4 sold 250k units whereas Xbox One only sold 100k units.
What everyone is overlooking is exactly the problem I have been saying about drawing conclusions... Xbox One's are sold out in the UK. So, it isn't that Microsoft wouldn't have sold more, it is that they COULDN'T have sold more, because there are no more units to sell. It is in fact roughly the same reason Sony sold *only* 250k. Both would have undoubtedly sold more, if more were available.
Other reports state that Xbox One sold 1 million units and PS4 sold 2.1 million. The problem is, Microsoft made their 1 million units at the same time Sony made theirs. The 2.1 million units came some number of weeks later and Microsoft simply hasn't released new information. Any assumption that Microsoft sold 0 units since their initially report of 1 million is easily and provably incorrect.
Reports indicate also that Microsoft outsold Sony in Australia... but again, I would wager that simply means MS sent more units to Australia than Sony.
The one thing that doesn't seem to have been refuted anywhere except in the UK is that MS has more units available world wide than Sony... since both are effectively selling out everywhere. The reasonable expectation is actually the reverse of what nearly every web site is claiming which is that you should expect Microsoft to outsell Sony in 2013 for no other reason than having more consoles available.
At the lower price point, once availability ceases to be constrained I would expect the PS4 to pass Xbox One in sales. When both consoles are at a point where they are available on shelves, and both are reviewed as being roughly the same, anyone on the fence will choose the cheaper system.
[/update]
If you continue to follow the comments things get even worse. People actually offer up perfectly valid reasons why Microsoft has more units than Sony, supposedly citing news from Microsoft that one reason they chose DDR3 over DDR5 was to improve the yields. And people still jump to the defense of Sony... like they actually need it!
Someone actually mocked the difference between the 6 PS4 and 24 Xb1 units available claiming it wasn't much of a difference at all. Nothing could be further from the truth. Firstly, because this appears to be the case in not just a single location. It seems to be, based on the comments, a rather consistent ratio across the board. Yes, 24 units is not a lot. But compared to 6, it is massive. It also means that Microsoft has the potential to sell 4x as many units. There is no guarantee they will sell them all, but they could.
I'm in the MS camp. But, the PS4 looks like a damn fine unit. If I had an extra $400 burning a hole in my pocket I'd probably pick up one of those in addition to my Xbox One. I don't actually have anything against the PS4. I feel like all it is, is an upgraded PS3. And, that isn't necessarily a bad thing. In fact, I wouldn't feel like that is a problem were it not for the felt like I felt the Xbox One had more potential. As I've said before, the guarantee for developers that Kinect is there and the TV integration have huge potential. Even if they don't deliver day 1, updates to these and other features may induce some buyers remorse in PS4 owners down the road.
But enough bias from me for now. Back to the numbers. Availability is king. Both consoles are less than a month old and Christmas is less than a month away. Sony's limited stock basically guarantees they will sell virtually every unit they put out there, and maybe that is Sony's strategy. But it also means that some people who want one, won't be able to get one.
Microsoft's approach on the other hand is apparently to get enough units out there to make sure people can just walk into a retail outlet and buy one before Christmas.
I don't doubt that someone looking to buy a PS4 (or someone on the fence) will walk into a store with the intent of picking up a PS4, but walk out with an Xbox instead based on availability alone. When it comes to Christmas presents, you need to be able to buy it to put it under the tree. Microsoft will also win the impulse buyers if their plan succeeds.
But here is the thing. If Microsoft does succeed and manages to keep Xbox One's on shelves throughout the Christmas period they will have won for the reasons above. But, if Microsoft "fails", that means they sold out of roughly 4x the stock that Sony had based on information available at the moment. And as you can tell, that isn't really a failure at all.
In fact, if Microsoft still manages to sell out, it could mean a long painful battle for Sony. Imagine how many more game studios might choose to target Microsoft's platform exclusively if they managed to outsell the PS4 by 4x in 2013 despite Sony having a 1 week advantage (1 week is meaningful because there were only 6 weeks left in the year when the PS4 came out, so that one week is 10-20% more sales time during 2013). And, make no mistake, people were questioning whether there was still a market for console gaming platforms. Now that the market appears to have been vindicated, many game studios will be watching the tallies for this year to determine which platform to throw their weight behind. And, while it may be a year or more before the effects of this actually trickle down it could set the stage for a massively uphill battle for Sony.
On the hand. If Microsoft pushes almost none of those excess units... Sony being able to say they were sold out all season, even if that means not selling more units than Microsoft, may still win out on perception.
Perhaps the reality is this; Microsoft made a big gamble and there are more ways that it will pay off than back fire. But it could still back fire.
[update]
It's quite a bit later now than when I originally wrote this. And much I have said seems to be coming true. But the idiocy and contrary claims are insane. The vast majority of sites are reporting that Sony has already won and is outselling Xbox One. But all of those claims rely on the same regional data or on a comparison of numbers that weren't released in the same timeframe.
In the UK, the PS4 sold 250k units whereas Xbox One only sold 100k units.
What everyone is overlooking is exactly the problem I have been saying about drawing conclusions... Xbox One's are sold out in the UK. So, it isn't that Microsoft wouldn't have sold more, it is that they COULDN'T have sold more, because there are no more units to sell. It is in fact roughly the same reason Sony sold *only* 250k. Both would have undoubtedly sold more, if more were available.
Other reports state that Xbox One sold 1 million units and PS4 sold 2.1 million. The problem is, Microsoft made their 1 million units at the same time Sony made theirs. The 2.1 million units came some number of weeks later and Microsoft simply hasn't released new information. Any assumption that Microsoft sold 0 units since their initially report of 1 million is easily and provably incorrect.
Reports indicate also that Microsoft outsold Sony in Australia... but again, I would wager that simply means MS sent more units to Australia than Sony.
The one thing that doesn't seem to have been refuted anywhere except in the UK is that MS has more units available world wide than Sony... since both are effectively selling out everywhere. The reasonable expectation is actually the reverse of what nearly every web site is claiming which is that you should expect Microsoft to outsell Sony in 2013 for no other reason than having more consoles available.
At the lower price point, once availability ceases to be constrained I would expect the PS4 to pass Xbox One in sales. When both consoles are at a point where they are available on shelves, and both are reviewed as being roughly the same, anyone on the fence will choose the cheaper system.
[/update]
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