Windows Phones problem was NEVER apps
Windows Phone's problem is its association with Microsoft.
I don't agree with the mentality but people think Microsoft doesn't produce anything good anymore, Apple is innovative and Google is virtuous. Realistically, there are actually more opinions than those. But I think that is the average perception, at least amongst my age group. In a lower age group it may look more like, Microsoft = uncool, Apple = status symbol, Google = cool. In any segment, there will be mildly differing opinions, but I think you can agree, that on the whole they aren't all that different and have roughly the same impact on bottom lines.
Official Instagram and Vine apps are coming to Windows Phone in the coming weeks. But I don't think it will change anything. Before I get into more detail, everywhere WP is sold, its market share is rising. In some places quicker than others. And I don't think that this news will negatively impact that. I just don't think it will have an appreciable positive impact either. Sure they may pick up 1 or 2 more in every 100 they would have otherwise lost, but the market for people considering a WP isn't so large at the moment that this will mean a 1-2% increase in global sales from this alone.
As someone who has followed Windows Phone from literally day 1 I can tell you; I've seen this all before. People don't know what they want. Or rather, people perhaps know what they want, but are unable to tell you precisely why they don't want something else. In the beginning it was Copy/Paste. Virtually every site overlooked the apps and complained about this. And most swore up and down that THIS was the only thing stopping people from adopting it. It was added and had virtually no impact. Then it was an official Facebook app. Got added, had no impact. And it continued along in this fashion with a new feature, app or game. And every time something which people proclaimed was the biggest or only barrier for OS was added... it had little or no impact.
Many still proclaim it is number of apps. Many projected when they broke 100k it would be the game changer. Now that isn't high enough. # of apps is arbitrary past 5k. If you took the top 4k games and top 1k apps from iOS and Android, the remaining hundreds of thousands of entries in their store would likely occupy FAR less than 1% of total downloads and sales. Heck this is probably true of the top 500 apps and games combined. 1 million apps just means a higher ratio of total and utter crap. Number of apps is a totally meaningless metric in virtually every established app store. The app argument has always truly been about a handful (<100 100="" a="" about="" app="" apps.="" apps="" are="" attracting="" before="" changes="" couple="" developers.="" every="" game="" get="" getting="" go="" in="" into="" is="" isn="" it="" just="" key="" list="" longer="" lot="" microsoft="" months="" new="" no="" of="" others="" out="" p="" problem="" s="" seems="" some="" specific="" static.="" store="" style.="" t="" that="" the="" their="" they="" titles="" to="" trendy.="" while="" with="">
But, I honestly don't think that is as big a factor as brand image. Sure, some people care deeply about their phones and what it provides. And for these people the lack of a certain app or functionality can draw them away from one platform or another. But I think the segment of people who actually care about those aspects of a phone constitute just a small portion of the market. As the tech guy in most groups I get into, people regularly ask me what they should buy. Almost every time they ignore my advice (unless it goes along with what they thought I would say). The average person doesn't care whether the phone actually meets their needs (including whether or not they can afford it in the first place) and simply buys what their best friend buys, or what they think will draw the most attention or, whatever the sales person tells them to buy.
Probably the only thing that has made a dent in the image of Microsoft and Windows Phone has been the Lumia 1020. Nokia made a phone that enthusiasts simply can't ignore. Frankly, they need more such devices in other niche areas. Even people who love their iPhones can't ignore the 41mp camera if they are camera junkies. Not to mention the outstanding lens quality and low light image capabilities. On paper and almost always in practice, as a camera phone the Lumia 1020 beats every non-Nokia phone on the market today. And that makes Nokia, and Windows Phone by extension, impossible for enthusiasts in the segment to ignore.
I think if Nokia, or one of Microsoft's other WP OEM's were able to do for music (as 1 example) what the Lumia 1020 did for camera phones you would get a similar visceral reaction from the general community. People love their music, and many have replaced their MP3 players with their phones. People get passionate about audio quality in their phones, the same way that they get passionate about the cameras in their phones.
On the other hand, when the WP8 store gets Instagram and Vine, people will go back to complaining about lack of a notification center. When they add that people will find something else to claim is the undoing of the OS.
Target those niche markets however, and you'll win people over regardless of app selection or missing functionality. The apps will follow, and people will give you some amount of time to deal with the functionality.
I don't agree with the mentality but people think Microsoft doesn't produce anything good anymore, Apple is innovative and Google is virtuous. Realistically, there are actually more opinions than those. But I think that is the average perception, at least amongst my age group. In a lower age group it may look more like, Microsoft = uncool, Apple = status symbol, Google = cool. In any segment, there will be mildly differing opinions, but I think you can agree, that on the whole they aren't all that different and have roughly the same impact on bottom lines.
Official Instagram and Vine apps are coming to Windows Phone in the coming weeks. But I don't think it will change anything. Before I get into more detail, everywhere WP is sold, its market share is rising. In some places quicker than others. And I don't think that this news will negatively impact that. I just don't think it will have an appreciable positive impact either. Sure they may pick up 1 or 2 more in every 100 they would have otherwise lost, but the market for people considering a WP isn't so large at the moment that this will mean a 1-2% increase in global sales from this alone.
As someone who has followed Windows Phone from literally day 1 I can tell you; I've seen this all before. People don't know what they want. Or rather, people perhaps know what they want, but are unable to tell you precisely why they don't want something else. In the beginning it was Copy/Paste. Virtually every site overlooked the apps and complained about this. And most swore up and down that THIS was the only thing stopping people from adopting it. It was added and had virtually no impact. Then it was an official Facebook app. Got added, had no impact. And it continued along in this fashion with a new feature, app or game. And every time something which people proclaimed was the biggest or only barrier for OS was added... it had little or no impact.
Many still proclaim it is number of apps. Many projected when they broke 100k it would be the game changer. Now that isn't high enough. # of apps is arbitrary past 5k. If you took the top 4k games and top 1k apps from iOS and Android, the remaining hundreds of thousands of entries in their store would likely occupy FAR less than 1% of total downloads and sales. Heck this is probably true of the top 500 apps and games combined. 1 million apps just means a higher ratio of total and utter crap. Number of apps is a totally meaningless metric in virtually every established app store. The app argument has always truly been about a handful (<100 100="" a="" about="" app="" apps.="" apps="" are="" attracting="" before="" changes="" couple="" developers.="" every="" game="" get="" getting="" go="" in="" into="" is="" isn="" it="" just="" key="" list="" longer="" lot="" microsoft="" months="" new="" no="" of="" others="" out="" p="" problem="" s="" seems="" some="" specific="" static.="" store="" style.="" t="" that="" the="" their="" they="" titles="" to="" trendy.="" while="" with="">
But, I honestly don't think that is as big a factor as brand image. Sure, some people care deeply about their phones and what it provides. And for these people the lack of a certain app or functionality can draw them away from one platform or another. But I think the segment of people who actually care about those aspects of a phone constitute just a small portion of the market. As the tech guy in most groups I get into, people regularly ask me what they should buy. Almost every time they ignore my advice (unless it goes along with what they thought I would say). The average person doesn't care whether the phone actually meets their needs (including whether or not they can afford it in the first place) and simply buys what their best friend buys, or what they think will draw the most attention or, whatever the sales person tells them to buy.
Probably the only thing that has made a dent in the image of Microsoft and Windows Phone has been the Lumia 1020. Nokia made a phone that enthusiasts simply can't ignore. Frankly, they need more such devices in other niche areas. Even people who love their iPhones can't ignore the 41mp camera if they are camera junkies. Not to mention the outstanding lens quality and low light image capabilities. On paper and almost always in practice, as a camera phone the Lumia 1020 beats every non-Nokia phone on the market today. And that makes Nokia, and Windows Phone by extension, impossible for enthusiasts in the segment to ignore.
I think if Nokia, or one of Microsoft's other WP OEM's were able to do for music (as 1 example) what the Lumia 1020 did for camera phones you would get a similar visceral reaction from the general community. People love their music, and many have replaced their MP3 players with their phones. People get passionate about audio quality in their phones, the same way that they get passionate about the cameras in their phones.
On the other hand, when the WP8 store gets Instagram and Vine, people will go back to complaining about lack of a notification center. When they add that people will find something else to claim is the undoing of the OS.
Target those niche markets however, and you'll win people over regardless of app selection or missing functionality. The apps will follow, and people will give you some amount of time to deal with the functionality.
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