The dangerous shift to devices
I was talking with my family today about programming. And something dawned on me. Both Android and iOS pose a serious threat to themselves.
Today, those with development skills already own most likely an Apple computer or a Windows computer. So, development tends to happen on one of these devices. But, while both occupy the number one and two slots in the tablet and phone sectors, neither platform is a development platform, and both form factors are cannibalizing sales of PC's.
Why is this a problem?
Simple. Newer generations are flooding into the computing market. And, these newer generations are more and more not seeing a need to invest in what is considered aging technology (laptops and desktops) and instead pump their money into tablets and smartphones. I would be completely unsurprised to find that households without a proper laptop and/or desktop already exist, with families relying ever more on tablets and smartphones entirely.
For the average consumer, this is great. They tend to cost less, are more portable, and do everything that they want them to do.
I guess I shouldn't complain. With the devices that enable application creation disappearing, my job grows ever more valuable. And the increase in demand for these devices makes that value grow disproportionately higher every day.
One of things that helped me get into development was just how available development devices were. In the PC era you never needed a separate device for application creation and consumption. My computer doubles as both a toy and a development tool. I can get everything I need to get done on a single device.
Apple would basically need to go back on their claim that tablets are a different form factor and start driving towards tablets as a desktop replacement. Google needs to grow up and get control of its eco-system and then get a solution. Microsoft is the only OS provider whose tablets (excluding WinRT) are able to be both a creator and consumer of apps.
When you consider that for the longest time, the biggest thorn in most people's side for OS's like Windows Phone was a lack of applications. What happens to Android and Google when none of their fans own a device that they can develop on?
I honestly don't think we are far from that reality. New tech tends to be popular and get the greatest hold in teenagers. Apple unveiled the iPhone something like 5-6 years ago. Kids growing up who didn't see the need to buy $1000+ Mac Laptop or any flavor of Windows PC should have just recently started graduating college and university and started replacing aging developers. In 5-10 years, or even sooner, the majority of the tech industry will be dominated by people who have never in their adult lives sat in front of a true productivity device.
Who will build the next generation of applications? Who will write the LoB apps that make daily life possible? Not the now and soon to be adults who grew up doing all of their work on an iPad or Android tablet.
Developers will become an ever rarer resource. And, amusingly enough, it will be the platforms that created this reality that will be bitten by it the most. Their followers will never have even had the option to create software for the devices they were convinced to fall in love with.
Today, those with development skills already own most likely an Apple computer or a Windows computer. So, development tends to happen on one of these devices. But, while both occupy the number one and two slots in the tablet and phone sectors, neither platform is a development platform, and both form factors are cannibalizing sales of PC's.
Why is this a problem?
Simple. Newer generations are flooding into the computing market. And, these newer generations are more and more not seeing a need to invest in what is considered aging technology (laptops and desktops) and instead pump their money into tablets and smartphones. I would be completely unsurprised to find that households without a proper laptop and/or desktop already exist, with families relying ever more on tablets and smartphones entirely.
For the average consumer, this is great. They tend to cost less, are more portable, and do everything that they want them to do.
I guess I shouldn't complain. With the devices that enable application creation disappearing, my job grows ever more valuable. And the increase in demand for these devices makes that value grow disproportionately higher every day.
One of things that helped me get into development was just how available development devices were. In the PC era you never needed a separate device for application creation and consumption. My computer doubles as both a toy and a development tool. I can get everything I need to get done on a single device.
Apple would basically need to go back on their claim that tablets are a different form factor and start driving towards tablets as a desktop replacement. Google needs to grow up and get control of its eco-system and then get a solution. Microsoft is the only OS provider whose tablets (excluding WinRT) are able to be both a creator and consumer of apps.
When you consider that for the longest time, the biggest thorn in most people's side for OS's like Windows Phone was a lack of applications. What happens to Android and Google when none of their fans own a device that they can develop on?
I honestly don't think we are far from that reality. New tech tends to be popular and get the greatest hold in teenagers. Apple unveiled the iPhone something like 5-6 years ago. Kids growing up who didn't see the need to buy $1000+ Mac Laptop or any flavor of Windows PC should have just recently started graduating college and university and started replacing aging developers. In 5-10 years, or even sooner, the majority of the tech industry will be dominated by people who have never in their adult lives sat in front of a true productivity device.
Who will build the next generation of applications? Who will write the LoB apps that make daily life possible? Not the now and soon to be adults who grew up doing all of their work on an iPad or Android tablet.
Developers will become an ever rarer resource. And, amusingly enough, it will be the platforms that created this reality that will be bitten by it the most. Their followers will never have even had the option to create software for the devices they were convinced to fall in love with.
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