Gaming rumours...
I'm not a hardcore gamer. In fact I rarely game. At least these days. World Of Warcraft sucked a lot of my life away and by the time I realized I was done playing that one, I was unable to find another game with the same sort of appeal. Perhaps I'm subconsciously avoiding getting sucked in again.
But, as a software developer I have an inherent interest in these platforms which are basically just highly specialized computers. They also have a tendency to shape the future of computing. So it is an industry I follow. And one I even invest in (as a consumer; I own a PS3 which I regret buying... kind of wish I had opted for the XBox).
So, with PS4 unveiled, and Xbox v.next being surrounded by rumours and soon to be unveiled as well, now seemed like a good time to start tossing some thoughts out there of my own. Since PS4 has been unveiled these are mostly thoughts on the Xbox rumours.
What is interesting to me is rumours seem to consist of being what people want to hear rather than sensible thoughts. In this instance there are 4 rumours, which when paired together are blatantly at odds with each other. Those are cost will stay the same, Kinect will be included, second hand games will be banned and cost of games will go up. In with the first 2 I would also bundle rumours that Xbox will also add touchscreens to their controls.
Firstly, it may not be impossible for the hardware changes mentioned to be made and still keep the price the same. But I don't think it is possible to do it and keep the profit margins the same. For this reason I think it unlikely that the price will remain the same AND come with bundled Kinect and/or new controllers with touchscreens. The Kinect sensor sells for over $100 CAN. There is undoubtedly a ton profit in there... and that is the way Microsoft likes it. If they now need to bundle it with the console due to it now being fundamental aspect of the system expect an increase to accommodate the cost of hardware and some added profit margin.
So, my guess is to expect the price to be closer to that of the PS4 rather than undercutting it.
The same problem applies to touchscreens in controllers. While they are not abundantly expensive. A controller with a touchscreens costs much more than one without. So again, we either lose margin or we add cost.
Definitely don't expect bundled Kinect, touchscreen controllers AND no price increase. At best you can hope for 2 of 3.
The next is one which certainly might happen. I don't think Microsoft will make second games an impossibility, but I could imagine it happening. And I can definitely imagine the cost of games increasing. But putting the two together would be suicide. Most games go down in price after a few months on the market, and most people are willing to pay the increased price at opening knowing they can sell it once they beat it. In other words, you aren't just eliminating the cheap second hand game market. You would also be deterring people from paying the higher prices that are already there today. Make them even more expensive and you make even fewer people want to buy them in the first place.
I won't make a prediction here. But if you want to make second hand gaming impossible then you need to make game prices lower expecting that people who usually only bought games second hand will only be likely to now buy games first hand if the prices are as high as they used to be.
But, as a software developer I have an inherent interest in these platforms which are basically just highly specialized computers. They also have a tendency to shape the future of computing. So it is an industry I follow. And one I even invest in (as a consumer; I own a PS3 which I regret buying... kind of wish I had opted for the XBox).
So, with PS4 unveiled, and Xbox v.next being surrounded by rumours and soon to be unveiled as well, now seemed like a good time to start tossing some thoughts out there of my own. Since PS4 has been unveiled these are mostly thoughts on the Xbox rumours.
What is interesting to me is rumours seem to consist of being what people want to hear rather than sensible thoughts. In this instance there are 4 rumours, which when paired together are blatantly at odds with each other. Those are cost will stay the same, Kinect will be included, second hand games will be banned and cost of games will go up. In with the first 2 I would also bundle rumours that Xbox will also add touchscreens to their controls.
Firstly, it may not be impossible for the hardware changes mentioned to be made and still keep the price the same. But I don't think it is possible to do it and keep the profit margins the same. For this reason I think it unlikely that the price will remain the same AND come with bundled Kinect and/or new controllers with touchscreens. The Kinect sensor sells for over $100 CAN. There is undoubtedly a ton profit in there... and that is the way Microsoft likes it. If they now need to bundle it with the console due to it now being fundamental aspect of the system expect an increase to accommodate the cost of hardware and some added profit margin.
So, my guess is to expect the price to be closer to that of the PS4 rather than undercutting it.
The same problem applies to touchscreens in controllers. While they are not abundantly expensive. A controller with a touchscreens costs much more than one without. So again, we either lose margin or we add cost.
Definitely don't expect bundled Kinect, touchscreen controllers AND no price increase. At best you can hope for 2 of 3.
The next is one which certainly might happen. I don't think Microsoft will make second games an impossibility, but I could imagine it happening. And I can definitely imagine the cost of games increasing. But putting the two together would be suicide. Most games go down in price after a few months on the market, and most people are willing to pay the increased price at opening knowing they can sell it once they beat it. In other words, you aren't just eliminating the cheap second hand game market. You would also be deterring people from paying the higher prices that are already there today. Make them even more expensive and you make even fewer people want to buy them in the first place.
I won't make a prediction here. But if you want to make second hand gaming impossible then you need to make game prices lower expecting that people who usually only bought games second hand will only be likely to now buy games first hand if the prices are as high as they used to be.
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