Who to blame for Windows 8?
So, a lot of the news on Microsoft's financials of late has focused on how poorly Windows 8 has done relative to Windows 7 and how sales didn't meet expectations. Microsoft blames OEM's, and OEM's blame Microsoft.
I think the truth is a little of both and a tad more complex. I think there are 3 culprits; a more serious general decline in PC demand, the perception and depth of the changes in Windows 8 and the lackluster hardware.
The first is one you don't hear about much. PC sales are down across the board. Even Apple is doing crap in that area (in fact according some data I saw, it appears that year over year Apple may actually be doing WORSE than Microsoft on the PC/Laptop front). So if people aren't buying PC's running either MacOS or Windows and there isn't a viable 3rd runner for consumers... it means people simply aren't buying those devices any more.
Frankly, I don't find this surprising at all. Laptops and desktops aren't the shiny new toys. They are still needed. But the problem is that by now most people own one. People do buy them; but typically when they go off to post-secondary education or if their current one dies. Since they aren't the cool new toy, people don't replace them before they need to. My parents are techies like me and my mother mentioned over dinner that her laptop was 7-8 years old. We used to go through computers every 2-3 years whether they were broke or not. These days the money goes to other things. For the bulk of the populous; cell phones and tablets.
The next point was perception and depth of changes. People aren't saying nice things about Windows 8. People are afraid of change. Mac OS looks and feels more like Windows 7 than Windows 8 does. The negative perception stems from that. I think this will drive a fairly small number of people to Apple, but for the most part it will likely just cause people to wait a little longer before upgrading. At the end of the day, most people have applications that they rely on and for most people those apps run on Windows. Windows 8 will run those apps. If they need a new computer, the vast majority will pick up one running Windows 8.
Which brings us to our last segment. OEM's. Before I dive too deep there, I will point now point out a small problem related to all three items. And that is that OEM's and Microsoft both seem to want to ignore the first point. There is a secret 4th problem. Price. Windows 8 come February 1st will be too expensive, which means that the OEM prices are probably comparable to Windows 7. And this contributes too but isn't the sole reason, but hardware is also "too expensive". I put that in quotes because cheap Android tablets and comparably cheaper iPads and iPad Mini's have lowered the amount of money people want to spend on personal computing devices.
And segue to OEM hardware. On the trail of the last point, take an iPad's entry price of a tad over $500. How many touch enabled Windows 8 devices could be purchased in that price range? Very few and the vast majority of those were Windows RT based. "True" Windows 8 devices sporting hardware to take advantage of the OS were typically $200-300 more. But, it isn't just that the proper Windows 8 devices were at a premium price most consumers are getting more and more unwilling to pay... at that price they were mostly Windows 7 laptops with a touchscreen slapped on.
I didn't find most OEM's doing even a half decent job of playing up Windows 8 strengths. It has a new UI which works great as a tablet. But where it beats an Android or iOS device is in its ability to run laptop and desktop class applications as well. Except that it doesn't really beat either if you don't facilitate that aspect (disclaimer: trying to navigate the desktop apps in Windows 8 with touch alone is a nightmare).
I think most Windows 8 computers should target replacing one class of device or the other (between laptop and desktop). As a laptop replacement, pair the device with a detachable keyboard, its a tablet when you want a tablet and a laptop when you want a laptop. For desktop replacements, provide more horse power even at the cost of battery life, and provide a docking solution with a proper keyboard and mouse. A full Windows 8 based tablet should never be sold without some sort of a mouse and keyboard solution.
Honestly, I think people half expected All-In-Ones to take off. I think they should kill that form factor. The Iconia W700 or the Samsung 20" massive slab provide the all-in-one utility while being far better as a general touch device.
I also think that with the exception of business and gamer focused models desktops should disappear. Mainstream users get no value out of swappable components, and the devices are bulky and confusing to lay users.
Laptops without touch screens should only be sold if they can be sold well under the cost of an iPad.
So there you have it. In general both MS and OEM's should lower their expectations, sales probably haven't bottomed out just yet. There isn't really much for MS to do, people will keep coming to the OS. And while it will take time, people will likely warm up to it eventually. OEM's on the other hand should take my advice, or try to come up with some new form factors. The old form factors don't give people reason enough to buy a new PC. Windows is on billion of computers... it is hardware that differentiates and motivates sales.
I think the truth is a little of both and a tad more complex. I think there are 3 culprits; a more serious general decline in PC demand, the perception and depth of the changes in Windows 8 and the lackluster hardware.
The first is one you don't hear about much. PC sales are down across the board. Even Apple is doing crap in that area (in fact according some data I saw, it appears that year over year Apple may actually be doing WORSE than Microsoft on the PC/Laptop front). So if people aren't buying PC's running either MacOS or Windows and there isn't a viable 3rd runner for consumers... it means people simply aren't buying those devices any more.
Frankly, I don't find this surprising at all. Laptops and desktops aren't the shiny new toys. They are still needed. But the problem is that by now most people own one. People do buy them; but typically when they go off to post-secondary education or if their current one dies. Since they aren't the cool new toy, people don't replace them before they need to. My parents are techies like me and my mother mentioned over dinner that her laptop was 7-8 years old. We used to go through computers every 2-3 years whether they were broke or not. These days the money goes to other things. For the bulk of the populous; cell phones and tablets.
The next point was perception and depth of changes. People aren't saying nice things about Windows 8. People are afraid of change. Mac OS looks and feels more like Windows 7 than Windows 8 does. The negative perception stems from that. I think this will drive a fairly small number of people to Apple, but for the most part it will likely just cause people to wait a little longer before upgrading. At the end of the day, most people have applications that they rely on and for most people those apps run on Windows. Windows 8 will run those apps. If they need a new computer, the vast majority will pick up one running Windows 8.
Which brings us to our last segment. OEM's. Before I dive too deep there, I will point now point out a small problem related to all three items. And that is that OEM's and Microsoft both seem to want to ignore the first point. There is a secret 4th problem. Price. Windows 8 come February 1st will be too expensive, which means that the OEM prices are probably comparable to Windows 7. And this contributes too but isn't the sole reason, but hardware is also "too expensive". I put that in quotes because cheap Android tablets and comparably cheaper iPads and iPad Mini's have lowered the amount of money people want to spend on personal computing devices.
And segue to OEM hardware. On the trail of the last point, take an iPad's entry price of a tad over $500. How many touch enabled Windows 8 devices could be purchased in that price range? Very few and the vast majority of those were Windows RT based. "True" Windows 8 devices sporting hardware to take advantage of the OS were typically $200-300 more. But, it isn't just that the proper Windows 8 devices were at a premium price most consumers are getting more and more unwilling to pay... at that price they were mostly Windows 7 laptops with a touchscreen slapped on.
I didn't find most OEM's doing even a half decent job of playing up Windows 8 strengths. It has a new UI which works great as a tablet. But where it beats an Android or iOS device is in its ability to run laptop and desktop class applications as well. Except that it doesn't really beat either if you don't facilitate that aspect (disclaimer: trying to navigate the desktop apps in Windows 8 with touch alone is a nightmare).
I think most Windows 8 computers should target replacing one class of device or the other (between laptop and desktop). As a laptop replacement, pair the device with a detachable keyboard, its a tablet when you want a tablet and a laptop when you want a laptop. For desktop replacements, provide more horse power even at the cost of battery life, and provide a docking solution with a proper keyboard and mouse. A full Windows 8 based tablet should never be sold without some sort of a mouse and keyboard solution.
Honestly, I think people half expected All-In-Ones to take off. I think they should kill that form factor. The Iconia W700 or the Samsung 20" massive slab provide the all-in-one utility while being far better as a general touch device.
I also think that with the exception of business and gamer focused models desktops should disappear. Mainstream users get no value out of swappable components, and the devices are bulky and confusing to lay users.
Laptops without touch screens should only be sold if they can be sold well under the cost of an iPad.
So there you have it. In general both MS and OEM's should lower their expectations, sales probably haven't bottomed out just yet. There isn't really much for MS to do, people will keep coming to the OS. And while it will take time, people will likely warm up to it eventually. OEM's on the other hand should take my advice, or try to come up with some new form factors. The old form factors don't give people reason enough to buy a new PC. Windows is on billion of computers... it is hardware that differentiates and motivates sales.
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