Tech Thoughts
So, the iPad Mini has been out for a while, and I Googled "iPad Mini cannibalizing". Turns out I'm not the only one thinking this is a very real potential problem for Apple. After the initial reviews, I think this will actually be a much larger issue for Apple than even I was expecting.
New reviews of the iPad Mini are good. Very good. But more than that, they highlight many ways in which they feel it is a superior device to the larger iPad. Some of these weren't things I factored in originally such as being more kid friendly at the smaller size and lighter weight. But then there were points that indicated a serious flaw in the way the original iPad was positioned. People find it more comfortable and better for content consumption. And while the iPad, even in its full size form factor allows for some content creation, no one I know intentionally opts for an iPad over a laptop for content creation. In other words, the one thing the iPad was king at, the iPad Mini is better at. And then of course one of the biggest factors, the one that always starts stirring the pot of cannibalized sales; it's cheaper.
One site was speculating that even if the rate of cannibalism was as high as 50% (for every 2 iPad Mini's sold, one of those would have been a full sized iPad sale without it) that they probably make more money off 2 iPad Mini sales than they would off that single iPad sale.
My thoughts on this are, when you look at the hardware Apple opted for in the Mini it is 2 generations old... it is unheard of for Apple to take so many steps back in a new device I've seen then plug in current generation hardware as they release new hardware in another line, but never something like this. This was a rare thing for Apple to do; they compromised quality... I would be shocked if the profit from 2 iPad Mini's = profits from 1 full sized iPad. People make the mistake of thinking that profit = Price - Bom. This isn't true... there is also the costs of packaging, shipping, if it is sold at a 3rd party store there are additional costs and some of the money they make was pre-spent on advertising. There are all sorts of additional costs involved in getting a product to market. Many of those costs are doubled in the process of selling 2 units.
The other problem with this theory is that the poster of that argument felt that 50% cannibalism rate was absurdly high... I don't. I think it might actually be far too low. Among the Apple loyalists, many will probably buy both an iPad 4 and an iPad Mini. But I think society at large will look at the lower price, smaller lighter form factor and the fact that it can technically do everything the full sized device can and realize it is a no brainer.
Anyway, that was a delayed rant on the iPad Mini cannibalization story. My other rant is against Microsoft. How could you F*** up Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 releases SOOOOO much??????? I'm retroactively pissed off about the SDK fiasco. I'm sorry, there was virtually nothing of merit that wasn't already known. This means that they crippled the one factor that many non-WP users still feel is the tragic flaw of the OS, a lack of apps.
But this isn't the only way they messed up. Availability is the other big one, and this is one affecting Windows 8 as well. On the Windows Phone side... WP8 was announced officially 2 weeks ago. In some places they started officially seeing devices yesterday, and here in Canada, I still haven't seen any. 2 weeks is a lot of time to wait for a device if you have cash burning a hole in your pocket. What good is building up hype about a platform if the hardware isn't available until after the hype has died down.
For Windows 8, the availability problem is MUCH more stupid. Microsoft has gone on and on for MONTHS about how Windows 8 is a "No Compromises" OS that runs on new form factors. Except, at the moment it doesn't. The only new form factor devices like tablets and convertibles available at the moment are the compromised Windows RT versions. NONE of the tablets or laptops I want will be available until November 30th, a few I don't care for are slated to trickle in a little sooner. This will be more than a month after the launch of Windows 8 and perhaps more importantly LESS than a month before Christmas. WTF?!?!?! Are you insane? At first I thought it was the hardware vendors being late to blame... but then I started noticing that ALL x86 based tablets and convertibles had much delayed ship dates. Too much of a coincidence. Microsoft has them by the balls and wants the RT devices on the shelves solo for a bit before they unleash the devices people actually want.
I have nothing against Windows RT by the way. If just the base OS were there to consider, I would actually say it beats iOS and Android. But since WinRT can't run your x86 apps, it is completely limited to the Windows Store. And on that front there is no reason to buy this over an iOS or Android device unless Office is the only clincher for you. Windows RT should have been the delayed device to allow # of apps to grow before releasing it, instead of trying to promote growth in the store by gimping the availability of x86 tablets.
What it boils down to is, I WANT TO SPEND MY MONEY!!!! Frankly, for the first time ever, I've felt tempted to go out and buy a Mac Book.
New reviews of the iPad Mini are good. Very good. But more than that, they highlight many ways in which they feel it is a superior device to the larger iPad. Some of these weren't things I factored in originally such as being more kid friendly at the smaller size and lighter weight. But then there were points that indicated a serious flaw in the way the original iPad was positioned. People find it more comfortable and better for content consumption. And while the iPad, even in its full size form factor allows for some content creation, no one I know intentionally opts for an iPad over a laptop for content creation. In other words, the one thing the iPad was king at, the iPad Mini is better at. And then of course one of the biggest factors, the one that always starts stirring the pot of cannibalized sales; it's cheaper.
One site was speculating that even if the rate of cannibalism was as high as 50% (for every 2 iPad Mini's sold, one of those would have been a full sized iPad sale without it) that they probably make more money off 2 iPad Mini sales than they would off that single iPad sale.
My thoughts on this are, when you look at the hardware Apple opted for in the Mini it is 2 generations old... it is unheard of for Apple to take so many steps back in a new device I've seen then plug in current generation hardware as they release new hardware in another line, but never something like this. This was a rare thing for Apple to do; they compromised quality... I would be shocked if the profit from 2 iPad Mini's = profits from 1 full sized iPad. People make the mistake of thinking that profit = Price - Bom. This isn't true... there is also the costs of packaging, shipping, if it is sold at a 3rd party store there are additional costs and some of the money they make was pre-spent on advertising. There are all sorts of additional costs involved in getting a product to market. Many of those costs are doubled in the process of selling 2 units.
The other problem with this theory is that the poster of that argument felt that 50% cannibalism rate was absurdly high... I don't. I think it might actually be far too low. Among the Apple loyalists, many will probably buy both an iPad 4 and an iPad Mini. But I think society at large will look at the lower price, smaller lighter form factor and the fact that it can technically do everything the full sized device can and realize it is a no brainer.
Anyway, that was a delayed rant on the iPad Mini cannibalization story. My other rant is against Microsoft. How could you F*** up Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 releases SOOOOO much??????? I'm retroactively pissed off about the SDK fiasco. I'm sorry, there was virtually nothing of merit that wasn't already known. This means that they crippled the one factor that many non-WP users still feel is the tragic flaw of the OS, a lack of apps.
But this isn't the only way they messed up. Availability is the other big one, and this is one affecting Windows 8 as well. On the Windows Phone side... WP8 was announced officially 2 weeks ago. In some places they started officially seeing devices yesterday, and here in Canada, I still haven't seen any. 2 weeks is a lot of time to wait for a device if you have cash burning a hole in your pocket. What good is building up hype about a platform if the hardware isn't available until after the hype has died down.
For Windows 8, the availability problem is MUCH more stupid. Microsoft has gone on and on for MONTHS about how Windows 8 is a "No Compromises" OS that runs on new form factors. Except, at the moment it doesn't. The only new form factor devices like tablets and convertibles available at the moment are the compromised Windows RT versions. NONE of the tablets or laptops I want will be available until November 30th, a few I don't care for are slated to trickle in a little sooner. This will be more than a month after the launch of Windows 8 and perhaps more importantly LESS than a month before Christmas. WTF?!?!?! Are you insane? At first I thought it was the hardware vendors being late to blame... but then I started noticing that ALL x86 based tablets and convertibles had much delayed ship dates. Too much of a coincidence. Microsoft has them by the balls and wants the RT devices on the shelves solo for a bit before they unleash the devices people actually want.
I have nothing against Windows RT by the way. If just the base OS were there to consider, I would actually say it beats iOS and Android. But since WinRT can't run your x86 apps, it is completely limited to the Windows Store. And on that front there is no reason to buy this over an iOS or Android device unless Office is the only clincher for you. Windows RT should have been the delayed device to allow # of apps to grow before releasing it, instead of trying to promote growth in the store by gimping the availability of x86 tablets.
What it boils down to is, I WANT TO SPEND MY MONEY!!!! Frankly, for the first time ever, I've felt tempted to go out and buy a Mac Book.
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