Windows 8. Yay or Nay?
Windows 8 is a fairly large shift for Microsoft and there is a lot of grumblings of their imminent death as a result of this shift. I'm going to ignore the whole Valve/Blizzard argument as I think I covered my thoughts on that before, and focus on other things.
Do I think Win8 will succeed? I'm not sure. It IS a fairly big gamble on Microsoft's part, and in some ways not a big enough gamble. Ever since they mentioned that WinRT (Win8 on ARM) wouldn't run the traditional desktop but that x86 Win8 would I felt they failed to commit to either backwards compatibility or a new OS. This in my opinion is their biggest failure. Either Windows on ARM should have supported legacy applications, or they should have cut the cord to the legacy applications entirely (and perhaps rebranded this as a whole new OS). This split OS personality combined with the split personality inside x86 Win8 WILL cause confusion and headaches. It is just a matter of how much chaos it will cause in the end and how much damage will result from it.
Where I think Microsoft's strength comes from is actually the most unlikely of places. Microsoft has committed to the unified ecosystem more than anyone. And I think it is actually WP7/8 and XBox which will be the main factor in offsetting where they screwed up. Microsoft has the most complete ecosystem as neither Apple or Google have offerings in the gaming department at present and neither has committed to the unified ecosystem in as deep a way as MS is doing with WP8/Win8/XBox. Microsoft also has un-arguably they best development platform, and the express editions of Visual Studio make even Android development laughably hard (without even throwing in the OS fragmentation concerns).
There is a rather large following of WP7 developers. And this will translate into a lot of people willing to port applications from Phone to Windows. There is also a growing commonality in the libraries used to develop XBox games, so you should also start seeing far more gaming titles spanning both XBox and Windows (and to a lesser degree WP8). So while the growth in Windows Phone is perhaps slow... that platform is growing and should (in my opinion) actually pick up pace with WP8. XBox is already the number 1 gaming platform in terms of sales. And those things have the chance to drive people to stick with or move back to Windows. For the people whom the phone is the most important device and own a WP8 phone, Windows 8 will likely enhance that experience (especially if NFC between desktop and phone turns out to be a hit). For gamers the same will be true to get the best experience out of games which leverage Windows Phone or Windows 8 to enhance the experience. And for those who buy Windows, even where a WP or XBox isn't the only solution, that brand awareness and commonality of the experience will make an argument that I think will sway some.
So, if the failure of Windows 8 hinges on how poorly their gamble is received, I believe the success hinges on whether they can hold out long enough for the rest of the ecosystem to save their bacon. And I think they have enough money to hold on for quite some time.
My prediction is that Google and Apple will slowly make inroads into these areas to compete with Microsoft while also trying to either better unify or better integrate devices within their own ecosystems. For Google, I think the Play brand is a big indication where they will go first. I sense an AppleTV knock off that supports playing games and media from the Play store. And for Apple I see AppleTV expanding similarly. Google I think will eventually take their gaming/media solution and merge it with Android essentially evolving it into a replacement for Chrome. At that time, they should have an ecosystem that will be on par with what Windows will have at the launch of Win8.
That race between the others to settle the differences and how effectively they are received I think will be the final of the big factors in the success of Windows 8.
Remember, hardware manufacturers WILL support Windows 8. They can't license Mac and Chrome OS and Linux have already failed in the past. So, if something doesn't change, it is just a matter of time until people accept Windows 8. As much as Vista sucked... consumers didn't give it a pass. It came pre-installed and they left it on there. Companies and power users may bypass it, but they will be in the minority. And people in general won't switch to Mac, the prices are higher and it is more different from Win7 than Win8 is.
I laughed my butt off years ago when those Mac vs. PC commercials bragged how Mac's didn't have viruses. Popularity drives what platforms viruses are created for. Mac was never immune. In fact Mac was, is and will for some time be far behind MS in that department. A fact that is beginning to show as Mac viruses are on the rise now, as the machines become more popular and I'm finally proven right. And thus one of the core pillars upon which people recommend Macs to less tech-savvy friends and relatives is crumbling. But even that was never enough to get most people over the price tag. Unless Apple loses their collective minds and starts pricing competitively in that sector, it simply won't happen either.
If I were to risk a guess at this stage I would say that yes, Win8 will succeed, if only in the long run the way that Vista did. Win7 is only Vista done right. By supporting Win7 you are also supporting Vista. The same may come true of what Win9 might be to Win8. As long as the core of what they brought in Win8 remains in Win9 and beyond... if it ever catches on they will be proven right.
Do I think Win8 will succeed? I'm not sure. It IS a fairly big gamble on Microsoft's part, and in some ways not a big enough gamble. Ever since they mentioned that WinRT (Win8 on ARM) wouldn't run the traditional desktop but that x86 Win8 would I felt they failed to commit to either backwards compatibility or a new OS. This in my opinion is their biggest failure. Either Windows on ARM should have supported legacy applications, or they should have cut the cord to the legacy applications entirely (and perhaps rebranded this as a whole new OS). This split OS personality combined with the split personality inside x86 Win8 WILL cause confusion and headaches. It is just a matter of how much chaos it will cause in the end and how much damage will result from it.
Where I think Microsoft's strength comes from is actually the most unlikely of places. Microsoft has committed to the unified ecosystem more than anyone. And I think it is actually WP7/8 and XBox which will be the main factor in offsetting where they screwed up. Microsoft has the most complete ecosystem as neither Apple or Google have offerings in the gaming department at present and neither has committed to the unified ecosystem in as deep a way as MS is doing with WP8/Win8/XBox. Microsoft also has un-arguably they best development platform, and the express editions of Visual Studio make even Android development laughably hard (without even throwing in the OS fragmentation concerns).
There is a rather large following of WP7 developers. And this will translate into a lot of people willing to port applications from Phone to Windows. There is also a growing commonality in the libraries used to develop XBox games, so you should also start seeing far more gaming titles spanning both XBox and Windows (and to a lesser degree WP8). So while the growth in Windows Phone is perhaps slow... that platform is growing and should (in my opinion) actually pick up pace with WP8. XBox is already the number 1 gaming platform in terms of sales. And those things have the chance to drive people to stick with or move back to Windows. For the people whom the phone is the most important device and own a WP8 phone, Windows 8 will likely enhance that experience (especially if NFC between desktop and phone turns out to be a hit). For gamers the same will be true to get the best experience out of games which leverage Windows Phone or Windows 8 to enhance the experience. And for those who buy Windows, even where a WP or XBox isn't the only solution, that brand awareness and commonality of the experience will make an argument that I think will sway some.
So, if the failure of Windows 8 hinges on how poorly their gamble is received, I believe the success hinges on whether they can hold out long enough for the rest of the ecosystem to save their bacon. And I think they have enough money to hold on for quite some time.
My prediction is that Google and Apple will slowly make inroads into these areas to compete with Microsoft while also trying to either better unify or better integrate devices within their own ecosystems. For Google, I think the Play brand is a big indication where they will go first. I sense an AppleTV knock off that supports playing games and media from the Play store. And for Apple I see AppleTV expanding similarly. Google I think will eventually take their gaming/media solution and merge it with Android essentially evolving it into a replacement for Chrome. At that time, they should have an ecosystem that will be on par with what Windows will have at the launch of Win8.
That race between the others to settle the differences and how effectively they are received I think will be the final of the big factors in the success of Windows 8.
Remember, hardware manufacturers WILL support Windows 8. They can't license Mac and Chrome OS and Linux have already failed in the past. So, if something doesn't change, it is just a matter of time until people accept Windows 8. As much as Vista sucked... consumers didn't give it a pass. It came pre-installed and they left it on there. Companies and power users may bypass it, but they will be in the minority. And people in general won't switch to Mac, the prices are higher and it is more different from Win7 than Win8 is.
I laughed my butt off years ago when those Mac vs. PC commercials bragged how Mac's didn't have viruses. Popularity drives what platforms viruses are created for. Mac was never immune. In fact Mac was, is and will for some time be far behind MS in that department. A fact that is beginning to show as Mac viruses are on the rise now, as the machines become more popular and I'm finally proven right. And thus one of the core pillars upon which people recommend Macs to less tech-savvy friends and relatives is crumbling. But even that was never enough to get most people over the price tag. Unless Apple loses their collective minds and starts pricing competitively in that sector, it simply won't happen either.
If I were to risk a guess at this stage I would say that yes, Win8 will succeed, if only in the long run the way that Vista did. Win7 is only Vista done right. By supporting Win7 you are also supporting Vista. The same may come true of what Win9 might be to Win8. As long as the core of what they brought in Win8 remains in Win9 and beyond... if it ever catches on they will be proven right.
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